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Contest Metrics - Billabong Pro Tahiti 2017

Tahiti now has the unenviable task of following a truly epic J-Bay contest; one that provided a spectacle for fans and managed to raise many surfers' AHS for 2017. Mind you, Tahiti can wow fans with the best of them. The success of this contest will depend on the conditions, just like your fantasy team. Let's see who has the upper hand...   All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data. Some 2017... Read more

Last updated July 28, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Contest Wash-Up - Corona Open J-Bay

“That’s the best conditions I’ve ever seen” – Kelly Slater consoling Conner Coffin after his re-surf loss to Jordy Smith.   Rant *I sincerely apologise for the lateness in publishing this piece; my bastard internet providers have some sort of infrastructure issue and are making me wait a week before sending out a technician. This wash-up was published entirely via a combination of mobile hotspot and begging my neighbour for her wifi password (she's a gem!). I know that most of it's irrelevant several... Read more

Last updated July 23, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Contest Preview - JBay Open 2017

Image: Gabe attempting some mid-heat spray intimidation against Slater in 2015 (Kelly won the quarter-final) Fiji feels like a season ago, no? JBay is a world away from tropical Fiji, a fact which the the stats reflect quite clearly. Let's don the neoprene, stretch the quads and test our mettle against the wild southern point-break. Conditions The WSL's long-range forecasting (at this point) calls for 'fun size SSW swells for the opening days of the waiting period'. Surfline seems... Read more

Last updated July 9, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Contest Metrics - JBay Open 2017

Hey fellow Surf Statisticians, You may have noticed (the 12 of you who read them) that the contest review for Fiji was M.I.A. Yeah, sorry about that. SS is a one-man-show these days, with little other than a love of surfing and a few rad-as-hell donors keeping me going. Which is fine; I wouldn't be doing it if I didn't want to. Occasionally though, important things come up and the site needs to take a back seat. Important things such as this little guy: Read more

Last updated July 3, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Injuries and Wildcards - Corona Open JBay 2017

Here's the latest regarding the upcoming JBay Open: Michael February - IN Other than his semi-final against Jordy, Mikey has won everything in South African surfing this year. He comes in hot and he knows the wave well. He'll most likely draw Jordy again in R1. Caio Ibelli - IN The 2016 ROTY looks to be out of his ankle brace and, by all reports, looks set to take his place in the draw at JBay. He's been out of the water (unless... Read more

Last updated June 29, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Injuries and Wildcards - Fiji Pro 2017

Here's the latest regarding the upcoming Outerknown Fiji Pro: Kelly Slater - In He's not officially OUT, anyway. Slater withdrew from Rio citing back problems and, if you do the math, he should still be out of action for Fiji. The thing is: Slater simply won't miss his maiden event as principal sponsor. And he's been adequately nursing said back problem for years. And it's his favourite event. And the injury was, in part, only an excuse to skip Rio in favour of Gold Coast gold. He'll... Read more

Last updated June 1, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Contest Preview - Fiji Pro 2017

Image: our projected Fiji Pro champion threading the south Pacific needle The girls are (nearly) done and dusted and the scene is set for event 5 of the Championship Tour. There's something exciting about a Fiji contest; it's guaranteed to throw up at least one talk-of-the-line-up heat each year (remember Taj's farewell in 2016?). Warm water, great waves, the best competitive surfers in the world. What's not to like? Let's take off late and pull into the numbers: Conditions The WSL's forecasting predicts 'solid... Read more

Last updated June 1, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Contest Metrics - OuterKnown Fiji Pro 2017

Image: Owen Wright on his way to another perfect 10 at the 2015 event All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data. Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due... Read more

Last updated May 29, 2017 by Surf-Stats

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Contest Wash-Up - Oi Rio Pro 2017

Rant The purpose of the first few pages in a story is to get the reader hooked. Australia served that purpose well in 2017 with its (mostly) good waves and excellent surfing. Usually the next part of the narrative arc requires some background or character development; a context through which the mounting tension can be viewed. Is that Brazil’s role? To throw out a little adversity and show us the character of this year’s tour surfers? Brazil has always kept world title contenders honest; it requires surfers to... Read more

Last updated May 18, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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Contest Preview - Oi Rio Pro 2017

Image: Connor O'Leary laying down some Saquarema rail in 2015 If there's a more challenging event to forecast this season, I'll be amazed. We still have a much-derided Brazilian event this season, yet we have a venue that has been untested on the CT tour. Sure, there are QS stats available, as well as transferable data from similar conditions, not to mention all of our data from previous Rio events at other venues. And yet, they are all far more approximate than we usually like. For a... Read more

Last updated May 7, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

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