Contest Metrics - JBay Open 2017
Last updated July 3, 2017 by Balyn McDonald
Hey fellow Surf Statisticians,
You may have noticed (the 12 of you who read them) that the contest review for Fiji was M.I.A.
Yeah, sorry about that.
SS is a one-man-show these days, with little other than a love of surfing and a few rad-as-hell donors keeping me going. Which is fine; I wouldn’t be doing it if I didn’t want to.
Occasionally though, important things come up and the site needs to take a back seat.
Important things such as this little guy:
My wife and I now have 3 little champions to keep us busy, with our latest arriving a few days ago.
Why do I mention this? Well, things are going to be slower for the next few weeks/months. For instance, the metrics pages will see each table/area drop individually over the next few days. They should all be in place well before the contest starts though. Also, the full contest preview will be, um, shorter. I’ll endeavour to throw an abbreviated one up in the day or so before H1 paddles out.
As always, thanks for reading.
Balyn
…
All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.
Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.
We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.
Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.
Full Data and Projections
AET = average event total (WSL game points),EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons)
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Points= average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Proj Score = total projected score for the event (WSL game)
| NAME | Proj AHS | AET | EAHS | 2017 AHS | AHS | 1-4' | 4-6' | 6-8' | Points | Rights | Proj Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Fanning | 15.18 | 131.11 | 16.17 | 13.6 | 14.06 | 15.48 | 13.02 | 15.07 | 15.59 | 15.32 | 139.65 |
| John John Florence | 14.34 | 81.16 | 13.09 | 15.4 | 14.48 | 14.05 | 13.8 | 15.74 | 14.49 | 15.1 | 131.96 |
| Gabriel Medina | 14.21 | 89.35 | 14.49 | 13.2 | 13.75 | 14.2 | 14.15 | 14.27 | 14.51 | 13.84 | 109.38 |
| Joel Parkinson | 14.11 | 69.94 | 14.77 | 13.25 | 13.03 | 14.21 | 13.6 | 12.88 | 14.68 | 14.27 | 108.68 |
| Julian Wilson | 13.96 | 92.41 | 14.62 | 14.58 | 12.96 | 13.94 | 12.84 | 14.57 | 14.04 | 13.99 | 87.95 |
| Kelly Slater | 13.96 | 83.1 | 14.7 | 11.73 | 13.38 | 13.51 | 13.07 | 15.03 | 14.12 | 13.47 | 87.92 |
| Frederico Morais | 13.92 | 12.24 | 12.75 | 12.64 | 12.91 | 16.03 | 14.8 | 13.73 | 87.71 | ||
| Owen Wright | 13.84 | 74.05 | 14.74 | 14.43 | 13.6 | 13.63 | 13.08 | 12.97 | 14.24 | 13.58 | 87.19 |
| Jordy Smith | 13.79 | 53.06 | 13.01 | 13.98 | 12.86 | 13.66 | 13.6 | 14.19 | 14.54 | 14.26 | 68.96 |
| Joan Duru | 13.74 | 12.68 | 13.76 | 13.76 | 12.51 | 13.68 | 14.36 | 68.68 | |||
| Ezekiel Lau | 13.73 | 12.07 | 12.25 | 13.18 | 12.29 | 14.9 | 14.74 | 13.88 | 68.67 | ||
| Adriano De Souza | 13.62 | 78.87 | 13.19 | 14.58 | 13.28 | 13.54 | 13.66 | 13.21 | 14.1 | 13.99 | 68.12 |
| Filipe Toledo | 13.42 | 47.16 | 11.9 | 13.87 | 12.93 | 14.62 | 13.33 | 11.31 | 14.92 | 14.18 | 50.99 |
| Wiggolly Dantas | 13.35 | 71.34 | 14.27 | 12.07 | 11.37 | 13.39 | 11.32 | 12.85 | 14.31 | 13.73 | 50.74 |
| Italo Ferreira | 13.3 | 42.56 | 13.44 | 12.25 | 12.77 | 13.95 | 12.97 | 11.46 | 13.72 | 13.77 | 50.55 |
| Bede Durbidge | 13.28 | 37.27 | 13.93 | 13.05 | 11.41 | 14.34 | 11.83 | 11.39 | 14.36 | 13.61 | 50.45 |
| Caio Ibelli | 13.04 | 44.19 | 12.96 | 12.79 | 11.91 | 12.45 | 12.18 | 13.31 | 13.85 | 13.47 | 49.55 |
| Michel Bourez | 12.78 | 61.87 | 13.3 | 13.41 | 11.87 | 11.78 | 12.27 | 12.33 | 13.26 | 13.23 | 48.58 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 12.76 | 36.64 | 13.01 | 13.17 | 12.2 | 12.14 | 11.95 | 12.85 | 13.05 | 13.19 | 35.42 |
| Jeremy Flores | 12.76 | 23.1 | 11.55 | 14.04 | 12.72 | 13.93 | 12.71 | 13.45 | 12.88 | 12.97 | 35.41 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 12.63 | 59.2 | 12.85 | 12.58 | 11.44 | 12.57 | 12.11 | 11.66 | 13.65 | 12.77 | 35.05 |
| Kolohe Andino | 12.56 | 50.86 | 12.49 | 12.89 | 12.32 | 12.35 | 13.07 | 12.18 | 12.79 | 12.55 | 34.85 |
| Adrian Buchan | 12.51 | 58.66 | 12.05 | 13.75 | 12.25 | 11.62 | 13.32 | 12.54 | 13.2 | 12.42 | 34.71 |
| Conner Coffin | 12.41 | 24.64 | 12.32 | 12.62 | 12.34 | 12.02 | 11.26 | 11.29 | 13.36 | 12.9 | 34.43 |
| Nat Young | 12.36 | 38.38 | 11.08 | 12.49 | 12.31 | 12.4 | 12.32 | 12.52 | 12.92 | 13.01 | 22.24 |
| Jack Freestone | 12.27 | 25.43 | 12.72 | 11.28 | 12.08 | 12.57 | 12.11 | 9.23 | 12.95 | 12.7 | 22.09 |
| Jadson Andre | 12.25 | 28.69 | 14.35 | 10.58 | 11.34 | 11.95 | 11.58 | 10.99 | 12.33 | 11.66 | 22.06 |
| Ian Gouveia | 12.25 | 12.31 | 12.71 | 12.17 | 12.59 | 13.22 | 11.79 | 11.87 | 22.05 | ||
| Josh Kerr | 12.21 | 67.23 | 12.58 | 10.49 | 11.51 | 13.35 | 12.25 | 11.19 | 12.3 | 12.04 | 21.99 |
| Connor O'Leary | 12.2 | 12.08 | 12.47 | 12.27 | 11.71 | 14.09 | 11.74 | 11.78 | 21.95 | ||
| Kanoa Igarashi | 11.99 | 48.51 | 15.12 | 10.62 | 11.89 | 12.21 | 10.95 | 9.27 | 11.72 | 10.95 | 20.38 |
| Leonardo Fioravanti | 11.92 | 11.01 | 11.34 | 12.69 | 10.65 | 13.77 | 11.7 | 11.77 | 20.27 | ||
| Ethan Ewing | 11.88 | 10.53 | 11.96 | 11.14 | 10.69 | 9 | 13.88 | 12.25 | 20.19 | ||
| Miguel Pupo | 11.8 | 30.55 | 11.34 | 11.67 | 11.2 | 12.48 | 10.98 | 10.42 | 13.15 | 11.98 | 20.06 |
| Stuart Kennedy | 11.58 | 21.18 | 10.59 | 10.99 | 10.93 | 12.89 | 10.11 | 11.72 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 19.69 |
Fantasy Surfer Data
Value = current pricePrev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
| NAME | Value | Prev. Value | $ Change | AVG Pts | High Pts | Proj AHS | Proj Score | $1000/point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Fanning | 5250000 | 6000000 | -750000 | 92 | 127 | 15.18 | 250 | 21 |
| John John Florence | 11000000 | 11750000 | -750000 | 142 | 250 | 14.34 | 175 | 62.86 |
| Gabriel Medina | 9250000 | 10000000 | -750000 | 91 | 150 | 14.21 | 151 | 61.26 |
| Joel Parkinson | 9500000 | 8750000 | 750000 | 116 | 150 | 14.11 | 150 | 63.33 |
| Kelly Slater | 7000000 | 7500000 | -500000 | 91 | 128 | 13.96 | 128 | 54.69 |
| Julian Wilson | 8500000 | 8000000 | 500000 | 100 | 128 | 13.96 | 127 | 66.93 |
| Frederico Morais | 4500000 | 4250000 | 250000 | 82 | 126 | 13.92 | 126 | 35.71 |
| Owen Wright | 8750000 | 9250000 | -500000 | 138 | 250 | 13.84 | 125 | 70.00 |
| Jordy Smith | 11250000 | 12000000 | -750000 | 137 | 250 | 13.79 | 103 | 109.22 |
| Joan Duru | 3750000 | 3000000 | 750000 | 66 | 125 | 13.74 | 102 | 36.76 |
| Ezekiel Lau | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 73 | 150 | 13.73 | 101 | 29.70 |
| Adriano De Souza | 9250000 | 9750000 | -500000 | 137 | 250 | 13.62 | 100 | 92.50 |
| Filipe Toledo | 7000000 | 8000000 | -1000000 | 98 | 151 | 13.42 | 86 | 81.40 |
| Wiggolly Dantas | 4500000 | 4250000 | 250000 | 73 | 102 | 13.35 | 85 | 52.94 |
| Italo Ferreira | 4500000 | 4000000 | 500000 | 113 | 126 | 13.3 | 84 | 53.57 |
| Bede Durbidge | 4500000 | 3750000 | 750000 | 83 | 126 | 13.28 | 83 | 54.22 |
| Caio Ibelli | 5000000 | 6000000 | -1000000 | 104 | 175 | 13.04 | 82 | 60.98 |
| Michel Bourez | 8500000 | 7750000 | 750000 | 89 | 151 | 12.78 | 81 | 104.94 |
| Jeremy Flores | 4500000 | 4250000 | 250000 | 86 | 101 | 12.76 | 80 | 56.25 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 7500000 | 7250000 | 250000 | 93 | 103 | 12.76 | 79 | 94.94 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 11000000 | 10000000 | 1000000 | 139 | 250 | 12.63 | 78 | 141.03 |
| Kolohe Andino | 8750000 | 9250000 | -500000 | 95 | 175 | 12.56 | 77 | 113.64 |
| Adrian Buchan | 5250000 | 6250000 | -1000000 | 87 | 175 | 12.51 | 76 | 69.08 |
| Conner Coffin | 4000000 | 4750000 | -750000 | 66 | 103 | 12.41 | 75 | 53.33 |
| Nat Young | 1500000 | 1500000 | 0 | 65 | 85 | 12.36 | 47 | 31.91 |
| Jack Freestone | 3000000 | 3000000 | 0 | 65 | 150 | 12.27 | 46 | 65.22 |
| Ian Gouveia | 3750000 | 3250000 | 500000 | 78 | 101 | 12.25 | 45 | 83.33 |
| Jadson Andre | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 57 | 84 | 12.25 | 44 | 68.18 |
| Josh Kerr | 4000000 | 5000000 | -1000000 | 48 | 82 | 12.21 | 43 | 93.02 |
| Connor O'Leary | 6000000 | 5000000 | 1000000 | 107 | 175 | 12.2 | 42 | 142.86 |
| Kanoa Igarashi | 3250000 | 4000000 | -750000 | 61 | 101 | 11.99 | 41 | 79.27 |
| Leonardo Fioravanti | 3750000 | 3000000 | 750000 | 60 | 127 | 11.92 | 40 | 93.75 |
| Ethan Ewing | 3000000 | 3000000 | 0 | 40 | 44 | 11.88 | 39 | 76.92 |
| Miguel Pupo | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 63 | 79 | 11.8 | 38 | 85.53 |
| Stuart Kennedy | 3500000 | 3000000 | 500000 | 60 | 102 | 11.58 | 37 | 94.59 |
Surfers’ Result History
Who’d have thought Bourez and Wilko would have such a similar level of success at JBay?
Round Placing ValueFinal (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5
Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
^ = no event winner due to shark incident
* = old ASP 48-man event format
| Surfer | 2010* | 2011 | 2014 | 2015^ | 2016 | Total | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Fanning | 3.75 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 39.75 | 7.95 |
| Jordy Smith | 10 | 10 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 27.45 | 5.49 |
| Julian Wilson | 5.2 | 1.75 | 8 | 6.5 | 21.45 | 5.36 | |
| Gabriel Medina | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 15.6 | 5.20 | ||
| John John Florence | 1.75 | 8 | 9.75 | 4.88 | |||
| Josh Kerr | 5.2 | 4 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 17.45 | 4.36 | |
| Adriano de Souza | 5.25 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4 | 21.4 | 4.28 |
| Ace Buchan | 3.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 20.25 | 4.05 |
| Wiggolly Dantas | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4.00 | |||
| Kelly Slater | 1.75 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 15.2 | 3.80 | |
| Joel Parkinson | 0.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 18.5 | 3.70 |
| Bede Durbidge | 6.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 11 | 3.67 | ||
| Owen Wright | 3.75 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 13.75 | 3.44 | |
| Matt Wilkinson | 3.75 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 15.5 | 3.10 |
| Michel Bourez | 1.75 | 4 | 1.75 | 4 | 4 | 15.5 | 3.10 |
| Kolohe Andino | 4 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 7.5 | 2.50 | ||
| Filipe Toledo | 0.5 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 7.45 | 2.48 | ||
| Nat Young | 1.75 | 4 | 0.5 | 6.25 | 2.08 | ||
| Caio Ibelli | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | ||||
| Italo Ferreira | 1.75 | 1.75 | 3.5 | 1.75 | |||
| Kanoa Igarashi | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | ||||
| Miguel Pupo | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 4 | 1.33 | ||
| Sebastian Zietz | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 4 | 1.33 | ||
| Jeremy Flores | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.25 | 0.81 | |
| Jadson Andre | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.75 | 0.75 |
| Conner Coffin | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | ||||
| Jack Freestone | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | ||||
| Stu Kennedy | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 |
Heat Draw
The full details of ins-and-outs for JBay are available here, but for now the draw looks like this. It’s likely that the final wildcard position will be given after the conclusion of the Ballito Pro.
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