Contest Metrics - OuterKnown Fiji Pro 2017
Last updated May 29, 2017 by Surf-Stats
Image: Owen Wright on his way to another perfect 10 at the 2015 event
All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.
Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.
We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.
Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.
A full contest preview will be posted in a few days.
Fiji Projections
Key:Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event*,
EAHS = event average heat score*,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+ size,
Reefs= average heat score in conditions offering reef break waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game)
Surfer | Proj AHS | AET | EAHS | 2017 AHS | ALL AHS | 1-4' | 4-6' | 6-8' | 8-10+' | Reefs | Lefts | Proj Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John John Florence | 14.87 | 83.47 | 13.58 | 15.73 | 14.56 | 14.05 | 13.83 | 15.74 | 15.9 | 15.75 | 14.86 | 136.8 |
Kelly Slater | 14.21 | 91.70 | 14.96 | 12.18 | 13.49 | 13.51 | 13.16 | 14.86 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 15.41 | 130.73 |
Gabriel Medina | 13.97 | 96.92 | 15.08 | 13.06 | 13.72 | 14.2 | 14.05 | 14.27 | 12.72 | 12.77 | 14.89 | 107.6 |
Mick Fanning | 13.77 | 80.42 | 13.77 | 13.86 | 14.12 | 15.48 | 13.08 | 15.07 | 14.75 | 12.66 | 12.76 | 106.03 |
Owen Wright | 13.56 | 100.18 | 15.04 | 14.39 | 13.37 | 13.63 | 13.04 | 12.97 | 13.73 | 13.16 | 14.34 | 85.46 |
Frederico Morais | 13.26 | 12.72 | 12.91 | 12.64 | 13.04 | 16.03 | 15.5 | 10.09 | 13.27 | 83.57 | ||
Italo Ferreira | 13.12 | 62.87 | 13.34 | 13.72 | 13.26 | 13.95 | 13.38 | 13.53 | 11.79 | 13.05 | 12.61 | 82.22 |
Ezekiel Lau | 13.04 | 12.93 | 12.93 | 13.18 | 12.29 | 16.83 | 13 | 10 | 82.15 | |||
Joel Parkinson | 13.03 | 79.47 | 13.63 | 13.71 | 13.14 | 14.21 | 13.64 | 13.45 | 12.25 | 12.33 | 12.16 | 59.49 |
Julian Wilson | 12.89 | 58.64 | 12.32 | 14.48 | 12.94 | 13.94 | 12.7 | 14.49 | 11.17 | 12.89 | 12.06 | 64.98 |
Jeremy Flores | 12.81 | 64.06 | 13.40 | 14.29 | 12.78 | 13.93 | 12.72 | 12.07 | 12.41 | 13.23 | 12.58 | 63.6 |
Adriano De Souza | 12.78 | 66.78 | 12.88 | 15.08 | 13.4 | 13.54 | 13.71 | 13.21 | 11.95 | 12.45 | 11.4 | 64.09 |
Kolohe Andino | 12.56 | 55.72 | 14.07 | 13.08 | 12.36 | 12.35 | 13.12 | 12.19 | 11.5 | 12.29 | 12.59 | 47.34 |
Adrian Buchan | 12.53 | 60.81 | 13.13 | 14.16 | 12.35 | 11.62 | 13.32 | 12.76 | 11.85 | 12.02 | 12.58 | 47.9 |
Jordy Smith | 12.51 | 44.53 | 14.48 | 14.49 | 12.99 | 13.66 | 13.71 | 14.19 | 10.55 | 12.28 | 9.02 | 47.09 |
Nat Young | 12.29 | 61.68 | 13.24 | 13.3 | 12.52 | 12.4 | 12.32 | 12.99 | 11.46 | 12.29 | 11.33 | 47.1 |
Ian Gouveia | 12.15 | 12.31 | 12.31 | 12.17 | 12.38 | 11.67 | 12.09 | 46.18 | ||||
Sebastian Zietz | 12.08 | 33.30 | 11.09 | 13.62 | 12.32 | 12.14 | 12.3 | 12.55 | 12.36 | 12.62 | 11.04 | 42.38 |
Caio Ibelli | 11.95 | 21.63 | 10.82 | 12.79 | 11.91 | 12.45 | 12.18 | 13.31 | 14.16 | 11.49 | 10.03 | 33.21 |
Leonardo Fioravanti | 11.93 | 10.4 | 11.03 | 12.69 | 9.49 | 13.99 | 14.83 | 10.91 | 33.09 | |||
Joan Duru | 11.89 | 12.69 | 13.77 | 13.76 | 13.59 | 12.03 | 8.27 | 33 | ||||
Filipe Toledo | 11.81 | 42.61 | 10.79 | 13.87 | 12.93 | 14.62 | 13.33 | 11.31 | 11.04 | 11.13 | 10.43 | 30.29 |
Connor O'Leary | 11.80 | 11.87 | 11.87 | 12.27 | 11.51 | 11.64 | 11.89 | 32.73 | ||||
Josh Kerr | 11.70 | 35.44 | 11.20 | 10.84 | 11.6 | 13.35 | 12.25 | 11.61 | 10.58 | 11.49 | 11.51 | 32.38 |
Jack Freestone | 11.44 | 23.10 | 11.55 | 12.31 | 12.42 | 12.57 | 12.11 | 12.68 | 11.06 | 9.4 | 20.52 | |
Michel Bourez | 11.42 | 69.26 | 11.06 | 12.78 | 11.71 | 11.78 | 12.24 | 11.14 | 11.77 | 11.91 | 10.05 | 20.62 |
Conner Coffin | 11.15 | 23.57 | 7.86 | 12.58 | 12.32 | 12.02 | 11.26 | 12.28 | 13.86 | 10.55 | 9.77 | 20.55 |
Jadson Andre | 11.09 | 45.87 | 12.68 | 10.2 | 11.24 | 11.95 | 11.58 | 10.7 | 10.53 | 9.91 | 11.12 | 19.23 |
Wiggolly Dantas | 10.99 | 60.41 | 11.06 | 12.32 | 11.43 | 13.39 | 11.35 | 13 | 8.24 | 9.47 | 10.08 | 20.03 |
Bede Durbidge | 10.93 | 37.45 | 12.49 | 13.29 | 11.47 | 14.34 | 11.75 | 11 | 9.36 | 9.76 | 9.26 | 19.47 |
Kanoa Igarashi | 10.64 | 23.47 | 7.82 | 11.45 | 12.16 | 12.21 | 10.95 | 11.41 | 11.8 | 9.61 | 9.9 | 18.09 |
Ethan Ewing | 10.63 | 11.18 | 11.18 | 11.14 | 10.69 | 12.77 | 8.97 | 18.07 | ||||
Matt Wilkinson | 10.55 | 49.13 | 10.96 | 11.92 | 11.27 | 12.57 | 11.92 | 10.24 | 10.9 | 8.89 | 9.38 | 17.93 |
Stuart Kennedy | 10.11 | 21.50 | 10.75 | 11.12 | 10.99 | 12.89 | 9.87 | 11.89 | 9.17 | 7.22 | 9.77 | 17.19 |
Miguel Pupo | 10.02 | 28.19 | 11.35 | 11.66 | 11.2 | 12.48 | 11.28 | 9.9 | 7.63 | 8.61 | 9.03 | 17.04 |
Fiji FS
Value = current pricePrev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAME | Value | Prev. Value | $ Change | AVG Pts | High Pts | Proj AHS | Proj Score | $1000/point |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John John Florence | 11750000 | 12500000 | -750000 | 157 | 250 | 14.87 | 250 | 47.00 |
Kelly Slater | 7500000 | 8500000 | -1000000 | 96 | 128 | 14.21 | 175 | 42.86 |
Gabriel Medina | 10000000 | 9750000 | 250000 | 93 | 150 | 13.97 | 151 | 66.23 |
Mick Fanning | 6000000 | 5250000 | 750000 | 95 | 127 | 13.77 | 150 | 40.00 |
Owen Wright | 9250000 | 8750000 | 500000 | 152 | 250 | 13.56 | 128 | 72.27 |
Frederico Morais | 4250000 | 4000000 | 250000 | 84 | 126 | 13.26 | 127 | 33.46 |
Italo Ferreira | 4000000 | 5000000 | -1000000 | 126 | 126 | 13.05 | 126 | 25.79 |
Ezekiel Lau | 3250000 | 4000000 | -750000 | 82 | 150 | 13.04 | 125 | 70.00 |
Joel Parkinson | 8750000 | 8250000 | 500000 | 107 | 127 | 13.03 | 103 | 77.67 |
Julian Wilson | 8000000 | 7750000 | 250000 | 93 | 102 | 12.89 | 102 | 41.67 |
Jeremy Flores | 4250000 | 4000000 | 250000 | 86 | 101 | 12.81 | 101 | 96.53 |
Adriano De Souza | 9750000 | 8750000 | 1000000 | 151 | 250 | 12.78 | 100 | 92.50 |
Kolohe Andino | 9250000 | 10250000 | -1000000 | 99 | 175 | 12.56 | 86 | 72.67 |
Adrian Buchan | 6250000 | 5250000 | 1000000 | 97 | 175 | 12.53 | 85 | 141.18 |
Jordy Smith | 12000000 | 12000000 | 0 | 152 | 250 | 12.51 | 84 | 17.86 |
Nat Young | 1500000 | 1500000 | 0 | 70 | 85 | 12.29 | 83 | 39.16 |
Ian Gouveia | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 72 | 83 | 12.15 | 82 | 88.41 |
Sebastian Zietz | 7250000 | 7750000 | -500000 | 91 | 103 | 12.08 | 81 | 74.07 |
Caio Ibelli | 6000000 | 6500000 | -500000 | 104 | 175 | 11.95 | 80 | 37.50 |
Leonardo Fioravanti | 3000000 | 3000000 | 0 | 43 | 47 | 11.93 | 79 | 37.97 |
Joan Duru | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 51 | 82 | 11.89 | 78 | 102.56 |
Filipe Toledo | 8000000 | 8500000 | -500000 | 98 | 151 | 11.81 | 77 | 64.94 |
Connor O'Leary | 5000000 | 5000000 | 0 | 90 | 125 | 11.80 | 76 | 65.79 |
Josh Kerr | 5000000 | 4750000 | 250000 | 50 | 82 | 11.70 | 75 | 40.00 |
Jack Freestone | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 72 | 150 | 11.44 | 47 | 164.89 |
Michel Bourez | 7750000 | 8500000 | -750000 | 74 | 127 | 11.42 | 46 | 103.26 |
Conner Coffin | 4750000 | 5500000 | -750000 | 72 | 103 | 11.15 | 45 | 72.22 |
Jadson Andre | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 59 | 84 | 11.09 | 44 | 96.59 |
Wiggolly Dantas | 4250000 | 3750000 | 500000 | 71 | 102 | 10.99 | 43 | 87.21 |
Bede Durbidge | 3750000 | 3500000 | 250000 | 73 | 86 | 10.93 | 42 | 89.29 |
Kanoa Igarashi | 4000000 | 3500000 | 500000 | 68 | 101 | 10.64 | 41 | 97.56 |
Ethan Ewing | 3000000 | 3000000 | 0 | 41 | 44 | 10.63 | 40 | 75.00 |
Matt Wilkinson | 10000000 | 9250000 | 750000 | 111 | 175 | 10.55 | 39 | 256.41 |
Stuart Kennedy | 3000000 | 3500000 | -500000 | 50 | 76 | 10.11 | 38 | 78.95 |
Miguel Pupo | 3000000 | 3750000 | -750000 | 60 | 79 | 10.02 | 37 | 81.08 |
Fiji History
Surfer | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Total | Average | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jack Freestone | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||
Kelly Slater | 10 | 10 | 5.2 | 4 | 6.5 | 35.7 | 7.14 | |||
Gabriel Medina | 8 | 0.5 | 10 | 1.75 | 10 | 30.25 | 6.05 | |||
Owen Wright | 4 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 6.00 | |||||
Mick Fanning | 6.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 4 | 5.2 | 28.9 | 5.78 | |||
John John Florence | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 22.1 | 5.53 | ||||
Wiggolly Dantas | 5.2 | 5.2 | 10.4 | 5.20 | ||||||
Joel Parkinson | 4 | 5.2 | 4 | 5.2 | 18.4 | 4.60 | ||||
Adriano de Souza | 5.2 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 17.85 | 3.57 | |||
Nat Young | 4 | 8 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 14.25 | 3.56 | ||||
Italo Ferreira | 5.2 | 1.75 | 6.95 | 3.48 | ||||||
Julian Wilson | 5.2 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 8 | 0.5 | 17.2 | 3.44 | |||
Jeremy Flores | 1.75 | 4 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 15.75 | 3.15 | a | ||
Michel Bourez | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 4 | 11.5 | 2.88 | ||||
Kolohe Andino | 0.5 | 4 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 13.25 | 2.65 | |||
Jordy Smith | 1.75 | 5.2 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 10.45 | 2.61 | ||||
Ace Buchan | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 12.25 | 2.45 | |||
Josh Kerr | 1.75 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 11.95 | 2.39 | |||
Sebastian Zietz | 5.2 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 9.2 | 2.30 | ||||
Matt Wilkinson | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 8 | 11.25 | 2.25 | |||
Jadson Andre | 0.5 | 1.75 | 4 | 6.25 | 2.08 | |||||
Filipe Toledo | 0.5 | 4 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 8 | 2.00 | ||||
Kanoa Igarashi | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | |||||||
Conner Coffin | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | |||||||
Bede Durbidge | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 5.75 | 1.44 | ||||
Miguel Pupo | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 6.25 | 1.25 | |||
Caio Ibelli | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | |||||||
Stu Kennedy | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | |||||||
Tevita Gukilau | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 |