Contest Metrics - Billabong Pro Tahiti 2017
Last updated July 28, 2017 by Balyn McDonald
Tahiti now has the unenviable task of following a truly epic J-Bay contest; one that provided a spectacle for fans and managed to raise many surfers’ AHS for 2017.
Mind you, Tahiti can wow fans with the best of them. The success of this contest will depend on the conditions, just like your fantasy team. Let’s see who has the upper hand…
All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.
Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.
We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.
*Wildcards have been added and data/projections have been adjusted. Our modelling has also been adjusted slightly to reflect the forecast conditions.
Full Data and Projections
Key:Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our magic algorithm,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
Fiji AHS = AHS for 2017 Fiji contest (in similar conditions),
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+ size,
Reefs= average heat score in conditions offering reef break waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on Proj AHS x estimated heat wins.
NAME | Proj AHS | AET | EAHS | Fiji AHS | 2017 AHS | ALL AHS | 1-4' | 4-6' | 6-8' | 8-10+' | Reefs | Lefts | Proj Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John John Florence | 15.15 | 99.57 | 16.94 | 14.09 | 15.83 | 14.59 | 14.05 | 14.04 | 15.67 | 15.7 | 15.5 | 14.66 | 139.38 |
Gabriel Medina | 14.55 | 126.34 | 16.42 | 13.74 | 13.85 | 13.92 | 14.2 | 14.35 | 14.87 | 13.1 | 13.47 | 14.6 | 133.88 |
Owen Wright | 13.88 | 99.41 | 14.78 | 14.63 | 14.29 | 13.34 | 13.63 | 12.84 | 13.03 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 14.44 | 106.89 |
Jeremy Flores | 13.31 | 85.02 | 14.51 | 13.05 | 14.39 | 12.81 | 13.93 | 12.81 | 13.16 | 11.56 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 102.46 |
Julian Wilson | 13.27 | 51.49 | 12.13 | 14.99 | 14.66 | 12.98 | 13.94 | 12.95 | 14.61 | 11.39 | 13.31 | 12.79 | 83.58 |
Mick Fanning | 12.96 | 39.49 | 10.74 | 12.57 | 13.82 | 14.11 | 15.48 | 13.17 | 14.58 | 14.65 | 12.89 | 12.71 | 81.66 |
Leonardo Fioravanti | 12.89 | 13.48 | 11.63 | 11.65 | 12.69 | 11.17 | 14.1 | 13.72 | 13 | 13.48 | 81.22 | ||
Joel Parkinson | 12.87 | 51.51 | 13.71 | 11.43 | 13.56 | 13.11 | 14.21 | 13.62 | 13 | 11.85 | 12.4 | 11.98 | 81.07 |
Adrian Buchan | 12.8 | 82.28 | 14.97 | 12.1 | 13.76 | 12.25 | 11.62 | 13.3 | 12.54 | 11.71 | 12.09 | 12.46 | 64.02 |
Italo Ferreira | 12.67 | 63.36 | 13.32 | 10.78 | 13.39 | 13.15 | 13.95 | 13.32 | 12.92 | 11.67 | 12.29 | 12 | 63.33 |
Connor O'Leary | 12.64 | 12.94 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.27 | 11.82 | 13.61 | 11.42 | 12.59 | 12.94 | 63.22 | ||
Joan Duru | 12.58 | 21.1 | 10.55 | 12.68 | 12.87 | 13.86 | 13.76 | 13.82 | 14.65 | 7.99 | 11.58 | 12.68 | 62.89 |
Ian Gouveia | 12.48 | 12.35 | 12.52 | 12.52 | 12.17 | 12.83 | 13.22 | 10.47 | 12.28 | 12.35 | 47.43 | ||
Kolohe Andino | 12.47 | 69.19 | 13.08 | 12.13 | 12.5 | 12.22 | 12.35 | 12.9 | 12.18 | 11.21 | 12.13 | 12.48 | 47.38 |
Frederico Morais | 12.25 | 10.32 | 12.97 | 12.99 | 12.64 | 13.12 | 16.89 | 12.97 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 38.05 | ||
Adriano De Souza | 12.19 | 23.72 | 9.9 | 12.58 | 14.5 | 13.26 | 13.54 | 13.6 | 13.22 | 11.75 | 12.35 | 11.69 | 46.32 |
Sebastian Zietz | 12.16 | 40.52 | 13.34 | 11.37 | 13.11 | 12.19 | 12.14 | 11.94 | 12.85 | 11.69 | 12.19 | 11.12 | 46.22 |
Michel Bourez | 12.03 | 35.76 | 10.49 | 15.95 | 13.58 | 11.91 | 11.78 | 12.35 | 11.99 | 12.1 | 12.15 | 11.53 | 45.71 |
Nat Young | 11.79 | 34.5 | 12.64 | 9.27 | 12.49 | 12.31 | 12.4 | 12.32 | 12.52 | 10.87 | 11.97 | 10.82 | 32.72 |
Aritz Aranburu | 11.75 | 57.75 | 14 | 10.38 | 11.18 | 11.41 | 9.86 | 7.98 | 11.62 | 11.75 | 32.62 | ||
Josh Kerr | 11.69 | 72.35 | 13.69 | 9.12 | 10.54 | 11.53 | 13.35 | 12 | 11.19 | 10.08 | 11.12 | 10.91 | 32.45 |
Jordy Smith | 11.65 | 34.32 | 9.06 | 11.95 | 14.3 | 12.94 | 13.66 | 13.49 | 14.3 | 10.48 | 12.13 | 9.75 | 32.34 |
Conner Coffin | 11.54 | 19.34 | 9.67 | 12.79 | 13.38 | 12.59 | 12.02 | 11.94 | 13.88 | 14.21 | 10.9 | 11.28 | 32.02 |
Jadson Andre | 11.36 | 44.49 | 11.58 | 12.1 | 10.95 | 11.43 | 11.95 | 11.99 | 10.75 | 10.78 | 10.45 | 11.37 | 31.54 |
Matt Wilkinson | 11.33 | 28.64 | 9.54 | 15.24 | 12.97 | 11.53 | 12.57 | 12.1 | 11.72 | 10.98 | 10.34 | 10.84 | 20.39 |
Bede Durbidge | 11.3 | 55.55 | 11.54 | 12.13 | 13.08 | 11.42 | 14.34 | 11.86 | 11.43 | 8.85 | 10.05 | 9.98 | 20.34 |
Filipe Toledo | 11.27 | 29.85 | 8.33 | 14.67 | 13.13 | 14.62 | 13.67 | 11.56 | 11.04 | 11.13 | 10.43 | 20.29 | |
Wiggolly Dantas | 11.1 | 39.05 | 10.59 | 11.07 | 12.55 | 11.49 | 13.39 | 11.39 | 12.85 | 7.69 | 10.07 | 10.32 | 19.99 |
Caio Ibelli | 10.96 | 17.03 | 8.52 | 12.78 | 11.91 | 12.45 | 12.15 | 13.03 | 14.16 | 11.49 | 10.03 | 19.73 | |
Ezekiel Lau | 10.72 | 8.64 | 12.13 | 12.13 | 13.18 | 12.8 | 13.85 | 10.59 | 9.32 | 8.64 | 19.3 | ||
Taumata Puhetini | 9.34 | 17 | 8.51 | 12.34 | 8.51 | 12.17 | 12.5 | 8.51 | 8.51 | 16.01 | |||
Stuart Kennedy | 10.37 | 18.37 | 9.19 | 10.47 | 11.62 | 11.24 | 12.89 | 10.87 | 11.72 | 9.04 | 9.11 | 10.12 | 17.62 |
Miguel Pupo | 10.37 | 18.89 | 9.45 | 11.72 | 11.68 | 11.21 | 12.48 | 11.18 | 10.42 | 8.79 | 9.35 | 9.7 | 17.62 |
Jack Freestone | 9.83 | 14.83 | 7.42 | 7.17 | 11.86 | 12.27 | 12.57 | 12.48 | 11.35 | 11.16 | 10.46 | 8.28 | 16.72 |
Kanoa Igarashi | 9.46 | 24.88 | 8.29 | 7.28 | 10.65 | 11.9 | 12.21 | 10.87 | 9.27 | 10.34 | 9.37 | 8.59 | 16.08 |
Ethan Ewing | 9.12 | 7.95 | 10.53 | 10.53 | 11.14 | 10.62 | 9 | 9.84 | 8.46 | 7.95 | 15.86 |
Fantasy Surfer Data
Value = current pricePrev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
AET FS = average FS score (with full credit to FS resident stats man McCovey's data: http://fantasy.surfer.com/forums/thread/?id=78542)
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAME | Value | Prev. Value | Change | AVG Pts | High Pts | AET FS | Proj AHS | Proj Score | $1000/point |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John John Florence | 11000000 | 11000000 | 0 | 140 | 250 | 138 | 15.11 | 250 | 44 |
Gabriel Medina | 10000000 | 9250000 | 750000 | 101 | 151 | 156 | 14.47 | 175 | 57.14 |
Owen Wright | 9000000 | 8750000 | 250000 | 132 | 250 | 140 | 14.41 | 151 | 59.6 |
Mick Fanning | 5750000 | 5250000 | 500000 | 97 | 127 | 104 | 13.79 | 150 | 38.33 |
Julian Wilson | 9250000 | 8500000 | 750000 | 108 | 150 | 93 | 13.18 | 128 | 72.27 |
Jeremy Flores | 4750000 | 4500000 | 250000 | 85 | 101 | 122 | 13.05 | 127 | 37.4 |
Leonardo Fioravanti | 4000000 | 3750000 | 250000 | 64 | 127 | 13.24 | 126 | 31.75 | |
Joel Parkinson | 8750000 | 9500000 | -750000 | 111 | 150 | 100 | 12.96 | 125 | 70 |
Adrian Buchan | 4250000 | 5250000 | -1000000 | 80 | 175 | 121 | 12.8 | 103 | 41.26 |
Frederico Morais | 5500000 | 4500000 | 1000000 | 98 | 175 | 12.6 | 102 | 53.92 | |
Italo Ferreira | 4750000 | 4500000 | 250000 | 104 | 126 | 106 | 12.82 | 101 | 47.03 |
Connor O'Leary | 5250000 | 6000000 | -750000 | 102 | 175 | 12.62 | 100 | 52.5 | |
Joan Duru | 4250000 | 3750000 | 500000 | 72 | 125 | 82 | 12.58 | 86 | 49.42 |
Ian Gouveia | 3000000 | 3750000 | -750000 | 72 | 101 | 12.5 | 85 | 35.29 | |
Kolohe Andino | 7750000 | 8750000 | -1000000 | 86 | 175 | 83 | 12.38 | 84 | 92.26 |
Adriano De Souza | 8500000 | 9250000 | -750000 | 128 | 250 | 73 | 12.41 | 83 | 102.41 |
Sebastian Zietz | 6500000 | 7500000 | -1000000 | 85 | 103 | 73 | 12.29 | 82 | 79.27 |
Michel Bourez | 8750000 | 8500000 | 250000 | 91 | 151 | 70 | 12.09 | 81 | 108.02 |
Conner Coffin | 4500000 | 4000000 | 500000 | 72 | 103 | 47 | 11.75 | 80 | 56.25 |
Jordy Smith | 11250000 | 11250000 | 0 | 135 | 250 | 78 | 11.88 | 79 | 142.41 |
Nat Young | 1500000 | 1500000 | 0 | 65 | 85 | 65 | 11.57 | 78 | 19.23 |
Josh Kerr | 3250000 | 4000000 | -750000 | 47 | 82 | 104 | 12.19 | 77 | 42.21 |
Filipe Toledo | 8000000 | 7000000 | 1000000 | 129 | 250 | 62 | 11.39 | 76 | 105.26 |
Caio Ibelli | 5000000 | 5000000 | 0 | 99 | 175 | 40 | 11.35 | 75 | 66.67 |
Matt Wilkinson | 11000000 | 11000000 | 0 | 137 | 250 | 81 | 11.14 | 47 | 234.04 |
Jadson Andre | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 60 | 84 | 70 | 11.54 | 46 | 70.65 |
Bede Durbidge | 4750000 | 4500000 | 250000 | 83 | 126 | 72 | 11.02 | 45 | 105.56 |
Wiggolly Dantas | 3750000 | 4500000 | -750000 | 68 | 102 | 70 | 10.8 | 44 | 85.23 |
Ezekiel Lau | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 74 | 150 | 11.22 | 43 | 75.58 | |
Stuart Kennedy | 3000000 | 3500000 | -500000 | 58 | 102 | 43 | 10.39 | 42 | 71.43 |
Miguel Pupo | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 59 | 79 | 57 | 9.97 | 41 | 73.17 |
Jack Freestone | 3250000 | 3000000 | 250000 | 68 | 150 | 63 | 10.4 | 40 | 81.25 |
Kanoa Igarashi | 3000000 | 3250000 | -250000 | 58 | 101 | 77 | 9.54 | 39 | 76.92 |
Taumata Puhetini | 1500000 | 1500000 | 0 | 9.34 | 38 | 39.47 | |||
Ethan Ewing | 3000000 | 3000000 | 0 | 40 | 44 | 9.19 | 37 | #DIV/0! |
Event History
Round Placing ValueFinal (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5
Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
* = old ASP 48-man event format (values and places differed)
^ = Bruno Santos actually won in 2008, not 2010, but his result was added as it is a significant factor in determining the consistency his success when competing at the event
Surfer | 2010* | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Total | Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kelly Slater | 6.5 | 10 | 1.75 | 8 | 8 | 5.2 | 10 | 49.45 | 7.06 |
Gabriel Medina | 5.2 | 1.75 | 10 | 8 | 6.5 | 31.45 | 6.29 | ||
Owen Wright | 3.75 | 8 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 29.95 | 5.99 | ||
John John Florence | 6.5 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 8 | 27.95 | 5.59 | ||
Jeremy Flores | 6.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4 | 10 | 1.75 | 32.65 | 5.44 | |
Ace Buchan | 5.25 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 10 | 5.2 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 32.2 | 4.60 |
Josh Kerr | 6.5 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 25.6 | 4.27 | |
Mick Fanning | 3.75 | 1.75 | 10 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 25.5 | 4.25 | |
Italo Ferreira | 5.2 | 1.75 | 6.95 | 3.48 | |||||
Julian Wilson | 1.75 | 4 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 18.4 | 3.07 | |
Joel Parkinson | 0.5 | 0.5 | 8 | 4 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 4 | 20.5 | 2.93 |
Aritz Aranburu | 1.75 | 4 | 5.75 | 2.88 | |||||
Kolohe Andino | 0.5 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 11.4 | 2.85 | |||
Wiggolly Dantas | 4 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 2.25 | |||||
Michel Bourez | 3.75 | 4 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 15 | 2.14 |
Jordy Smith | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 4 | 12.5 | 2.08 | |
Matt Wilkinson | 1.75 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 14.45 | 2.06 |
Bede Durbidge | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 11.5 | 1.92 | |
Kanoa Igarashi | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | ||||||
Joan Duru | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | ||||||
Jadson Andre | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 4 | 8.5 | 1.70 | ||
Filipe Toledo | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 5 | 1.67 | ||||
Sebastian Zietz | 0.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 5.75 | 1.44 | |||
Adriano de Souza | 3.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 9.25 | 1.32 |
Nat Young | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 4.5 | 1.13 | |||
Miguel Pupo | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 5 | 1.00 | ||
Caio Ibelli | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | ||||||
Conner Coffin | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | ||||||
Jack Freestone | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | ||||||
Taumata Puhetini | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | |||||
Stu Kennedy | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 |