Injury Update: 

4 October,  2015 – Jordy Smith (back) and Matt Banting (knee) have officially withdrawn from the 2015 Quiksilver Pro France.  They will be replaced by Aritz Aranburu and one still TBD,  most likely Caio Ibelli following the Cascais QS. 

Was Trestles a ride or what?  De Souza finally gave the Gold up to Mick Fanning,  Sebastian Zietz turned a 16.6 R2 win into a bizarre early exit and Kelly Slater blew minds right on schedule.  Freddy Patacchia, Jr. dropped a R1 perfect 10 before retiring from competitive surfing on the sand.  All this activity is a lot to take in,  and ultimately leaves a few more questions than answers.  Matt Banting (knee) and Jordy Smith (back) are officially withdrawn and the ever-ambiguous Kelly Slater has yet to publicly elaborate on his Europe attendance.  Aritiz Aranburu is in as one INJ Replacement already.

Following the Cascais Women’s Pro Courtney Conlogue was able to reclaim the Gold from Carissa Moore while 2nd-place Lakey Peterson and 5th-place Johanne Defay each climbed a spot in the rankings.  Those finals conditions were tough to watch,  but it was encouraging to see Conlogue muscle them out – that’s a good note for upcoming FRA.  Our only question-mark heading into the Roxy Pro is still Stephanie Gilmore,  who missed her fifth straight event last month;  she’ll need to not only compete,  but turn in a solid result to stop the leaderboard bleeding.

Fun Facts:  WSL Commentary Booth Stats

We thought it would be neat to check out how some of the ex-pros on the WSL panel fared in France over their careers.  We’ll give you their real stats and,  where applicable,  equate them to today’s scoring.  For Pottz, most of his glory was during the 1980’s within a seemingly forgotten scoring system (World Surf League,  a little help? – data@surf-stats.com – thanks!).  Hands down,  Martin Potter is the reigning France King-of-the-Booth.

Martin Potter

• FRA Career AHS (1983 – 1991):   85.72   (if anyone knows the scoring system back then let us know!)
• FRA Career AHS (1992 – 1995):   22.45   (equivalent to 15.02 today)
• FRA Career QSFW:    77    (4 total wins,  2 Lacanau,  1 Hossegor,  1 Biarritz)

 Ross Williams

• FRA Career AHS  (1994 – 2000):   20.13    (equivalent to 13.42 today)
• FRA Career QSFW:    2    (2 total quarter-finals,  1 Lacanau,  1 Hossegor – both in 2000)

Rosy Hodge

• FRA Career AHS  (2008 – 2012  *includes QS events):   9.7

Hope you enjoyed this jump back in time.   Rosy may have a QSFW of 0 in France,  but her Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em picks have been enjoyable and on-point this year.  If you want to play against our teams,  join the Surf-Stats Men’s and Women’s Clubhouse on WSL Fantasy Surfing (  Password:  fantasy  );  we don’t have tangible prizes yet,  but if you win we’ll feature you in our upcoming Fantasy Hall of Fame as 2015 France Champion!  Onto the Outlook…

[tabby title=”WSL Men’s”]

Men’s WSL Fantasy Outlook – FRA

Well we hope you listened to us at Trestles,  at least for our John John Florence fade advice and Trap pick Kelly Slater.  The pair posted a combined 96.3 points coming out of Tier A.  Ugly,  to say the least.   On the other hand,  our LOCK picks Gabriel Medina (Tier B)  and Miguel Pupo (Tier C)  posted a combined 194.45 points.  Boom,  that’s some good picking.

We’re not even going to touch the Heat Draw for France,  by the time the first horn blows there’s no telling what the match-ups will be.  The current withdraw potentials are Jordy Smith (back,  doubtful),  Matt Banting (knee,  doubtful)  and Kelly Slater  (mild injuries/time off,  questionable).   Taj Burrow (paternity)  and Freddy Patacchia (retired) will be replaced by Tomas Hermes and Alejo Muniz while the Wild Cards are Dane Reynolds and Maxime Huscenot.  There’s potential here to see a very interesting competitor pool given the possibility of withdrawals,  so we’re sticking with surfers that we know will be out there.

[UPDATE: Smith and Banting have officially withdrawn,  replaced by Aritz Aranburu (confirmend) and most likely Caio Ibelli (pending accepted invitation)]

Tier A

LOCK:  Gabriel Medina (14.06 Proj AHS for 113.28 Proj Pts / 8% Start) – Gabriel Medina has found himself in Tier A with the big boys,  but remember,  this is where he was just one year ago on the hunt for his country’s first World Title.  Medina has been extremely successful in France with a QSFW of 24 in his young career and would surely have a higher start percentage if he were in Tier B.  At 8%  he’s prime for the picking,  Medina has a great Heat Draw (right now, anyway) and as good a chance as anyone in the high tier to win the event.  Our projection model actually predicts that outcome and we are on board with that,  amen.  14+  AHS in all expected conditions and coming in hot with momentum to burn – tie it down,  reel it in,  lock it up,  whatever you have to do – just draft Medina.

Adriano de Souza (12.24 Proj AHS for 106.96 Proj Pts / 23% Start) – Adriano has a worse start percentage than Julian Wilson,  capitalize on that if it stays true.  Julian has had a string of awful and disappointing performances while de Souza has been consistent and well-calculated.  With variable conditions on hand,  you want a versatile surfer.  Adriano is much more consistent across the board with scoring;  Wilson has been slowly coming into his own as a competitor,  but he still relies on the big punt to grab the score in smaller surf.  France is where surfers like de Souza will shine, as glory often comes from the grind.  Mick Fanning has this figured out as well,  but at 48% started there’s more potential upside in Adriano.  Sure, sometimes conditions prove just right for a prodigy to take the reins (last year’s JJF win),  but if that’s not in the cards,  you want a proven producer – grab de Souza.

It’s A Trap

Filipe Toledo (14.26 Proj AHS for 104.44 Proj Pts / 37% Start) – This is a giant start percentage for Filipe Toledo.  Let’s remember his first hiccup in 2015 – a R2 exit at Margaret River.  This was the first time Toledo was faced with variable event locations and conditions.  How did he do at the box with sharp-snapping,  fast,  barrel action?  Not well,  as we recall.  Depending on where they surf and what Mother Nature provides,  France could look like Brazil or the Box,  so in our book,  Toledo is just too much of a gamble.  Even if conditions suit him perfectly –  as they did at Trestles –  there’s no guarantee he can convert it into a win.

Special Tier A note – Kelly Slater “may or may not be surfing the event”  and as far as we’re concerned,  that depends on the R1 forecast.  Kelly has been notorious for missing poor competition surf in favor of personal interests (surfing,  business,  or  recreational)  and we’re honestly not going to blame him for that.  In the past,  this strategy has worked fine for Slater,  he’s been able to jet in and take R2 with ease.  This year there may actually be the chance that he’s being truthful (but keep in mind his April Fool’s retirement hoax).  Kelly plays mind games in four dimensions,  so we have no idea what his move will be.  We wouldn’t recommend him anyway,  so it’s a safe fade all around.

Sleeper

Jeremy Flores (11.81 Proj AHS for 91.8 Proj Pts / 3% Start) – Flores is ranked 5th in projected points and is certainly no guarantee at his home country (QSFW of 0,  yikes).  (Quick Aside:  This is Jeremy’s country, but he’s not exactly a born-and-raised local.  Flores grew up in Reunion Island,  a French territory off the coast of Madagascar which is much closer to South Africa than Europe).  But his start percentage presents the opportunity for a huge value if he can out-surf de Souza and Fanning.  We won’t likely be drafting Flores,  but only because we’re staying away from Mick.  If you do go mainstream and pick up Fanning,  we recommend hedging the tier with Jeremy.

Tier B

B for Brazil

LOCK:  Wiggolly Dantas (11.57 Proj AHS for 94.74 Proj Pts / 21% Start) – Wiggolly is one of the few goofy-footers who has a favorable right-hand RLD at 1.97.  This easily makes him one of the more versatile surfers on tour.  Next,  consider his prowess at sharp,  beach-breaking tubes.  You following us here?  He’s ranked 3rd in Tier B start percentage to John John Florence and Italo Ferreira,  but stands to make the biggest splash.  Dantas is 13+ AHS for all expected conditions and his 0 QSFW is only due to him not surfing a France CT yet.  He’s slated to draw Jordy Smith and Joel Parkinson in R1,  but Parko is no longer a threat.  Jordy Smith in any other season would be a red flag,  but we don’t expect him to surf this event and a withdrawal would serve to improve Wiggolly’s situation.  Even if Smith does surf,  he’s out of practice and out of synch.  Get Dantas on the books.

Jadson Andre (11.37 Proj AHS for 82.77 Proj Pts / 8% Start) – Jadson would have been an easy Sleeper pick,  but he’s unexpectedly grabbed more of the Tier B market share than our other recommendation,  Miguel Pupo (4%).  Jadson’s conditions AHS are nothing to write home about,  hovering in the 11’s range throughout,  but he was able to take second place last year.  At 8%  started,  he’s still a slight gamble but potential reward candidate and if you need some tier diversification he’s definitely worth a look.

Italo Ferreira (13.21 Proj AHS for 89.92 Proj Pts / 29% Start) – Our love affair with Italo Ferreira continues right into France;  there seems to be nothing he can’t handle and he’s shaped up to be one of the more consistent and reliable surfers on tour even as a rookie.  Ferreira’s AHS for 1-4′ surf is 13.61 and he’s got a 12.98 at Left/Right hand Beach breaks.  No CT events in France under his belt yet,  but we think he’ll boost his QSFW following CT #9.  Adrian Buchan might put up a R1 fight,  but on paper it looks like Italo will win that battle.  France is a place where versatility is King,  and Ferreira might be one of the best at posting a score on any wave.

It’s A Trap

John John Florence (14.18 Proj AHS for 105.62 Proj Pts / 50% Start) – When will the public faith in Florence finally end?  We’ll preface this as we always do by saying that JJF is one of the best free-surfers and most entertaining competitors in the world.  He won here last year,  is projected for the most points in Tier B and boasts the highest overall France career AHS at 14.37.  The catch,  as usual,  is risk.  Florence simply has too much talent to have only won two career CT events.  He’s had the excuse of limited time at the top level,  but 2015 should have been a break-out year.  Instead, he has placed better than 9th only once (2nd place in Margaret River).  We outlined his lack of competitive fire in our Trestles Outlook as a potential risk,  but it would appear as though it is a very real problem.  If you like Florence for France we’re not going to try and stop you – at some point he will  win a third event – but until he does you’ll risk him getting blown out by Glenn Hall in R2 (Trestles *cough*).  At 50% started and more risk than sand in France,  this is a big-league fade.

Sleeper

Miguel Pupo (12.27 Proj AHS for 88.35 Proj Pts / 4% Start) – Pupo was an awesome Tier C Sleeper pick at Trestles,  raking in a tier-high 77.17 points.  He’s found his way back to Tier B,  but is still a great value option.  The only surfer on fewer teams is Keanu Asing (2%) so you can clean up big if Miguel pays out.  The potential is solid,  his career France AHS is 12.55 and he’s made 2 QF appearances as well.  The upside might not be the greatest,  so you might only want to jump on Pupo if you have two or more tier favorites.

Honorable Mention

Adrian Buchan (12.14 Proj AHS for 85.06 Proj Pts / 8% Start) – Ace heads into FRA with terrific recent form,  finishing 5th or better in 2 of his last 3 events.  A FRA career 10 QSFW and 12.2 AHS puts him in line for a solid outing and it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he goes QF or better.  He was very technically sound at Trestles and has plenty of experience navigating the tricky breaks of Southwest France.  Sebastian Zietz is another name you might want to consider for a value play (14.08 Proj AHS for 69.74 Proj Pts / 9% Start).

Tier C

LOCK:  Dane Reynolds (13 Proj AHS for 81.04 Proj Pts / 2% Start) – Reynolds is still getting a nod from us despite a disappointing spot record in 2015.  Through 4 events he still hasn’t made a QF,  but France could be a different story (we know,  we know… heard that before…).  Dane’s slashing a 13.95/12.99/12.71/8  line for FRA/Left and Right Breaks/ Right waves/Beach breaks.  That’s impressive and bodes well for some well-deserved success.  At 2% start,  Reynolds could easily have been a Sleeper pick,  but we honestly think he can outcompete the rest of the tier.

It’s A Trap

[Jordy Smith has withdrawn from the event]

Jordy Smith (12.87 Proj AHS for 80.08 Proj Pts / 12% Start) – Generally speaking,  a Trap pick should have a big start percentage and a daunting floor.  Jordy meets just one of these requirements,  but just like for Dane’s low percentage as a Lock,  Jordy is an exception.  There’s potential here for an extremely low score even for the bottom tier.  We say that because obviously if Smith withdraws (and we think he will),  you’ll have at least some warning to drop him.  12% is still a lot of teams and many of them won’t be able to adjust – it’ll be your gain if you heed our call to fade here.  In the off chance that Jordy does surf,  let’s remember what happened to the local hero at JBay:  Following a 73rd place finish at the Ballito Pro QS,  Smith tweaked his back in Jeffreys R1.  Deciding to battle through,  he limped his way right out the R2 exit door to the serious disappointment of 38% of teams.  He ranked dead last with 13.2 points and a wretched 6.6 event AHS.  Jordy hasn’t surfed since and if he lands in the lineup there is no guarantee he won’t injure himself again – maybe in R1 this time.  Way,  way,  way too much risk on all fronts.

Sleeper

Ricardo Christie (12.1 Proj AHS for 57.83 Proj Pts / 8% Start) – There are a lot more attractive options in Tier C than the seemingly woeful Ricardo Christie,  but there may be more upside than you think for France as well.  Christie is coming off a tough stretch of four straight 25th-place finishes and sitting dangerously at #32 on the rankings.  FRA will offer conditions we think will most closely resemble The Box at Margaret River and this year’s Oi Rio Pro – the two best events of Ricardo’s rookie season.  He dropped 76.7 fantasy points in Brazil for his best work to-date and we think there’s a good enough chance to sneak one under the radar here.  With 35% of teams opting for a still unproven Kolohe Andino,  grow a pair and get on Christie – you’ll look like a genius if he can make his second QF of 2015.

[tabby title=”WSL Women’s”]

Women’s WSL Fantasy Outlook – FRA

In the wake of the Cascais Women’s Pro we find Courtney Conlogue once again decked in gold atop the rankings.  Carissa Moore disappointed the 54% of teams she represented with a 50.33 point finish,  relinquishing the #1 spot.

France will be,  as it always has been,  a conditions circus that runs a full gamut of tidal extremes and hot/cold forecasts that vary by the day.  You could see huge barreling conditions in the morning and chop soup by afternoon,  so versatility is key.  With some decent swell heading towards France’s Southwest coast,  you’ll want not only the surfers who can adapt,  but the ones who are most capable in big,  sharp barrels.  The upcoming conditions will look like a combination of Margaret River’s  The Box and the Oi Rio Pro,  and both those events were won this year by our Tier A Lock…

Tier A

LOCK:  Courtney Conlogue (13.82 Proj AHS for 97.45 Proj Pts / 18% Start) – She’s finally a LOCK!  Courtney’s got the complete package deal heading into France.  She won the last event so the momentum and form are there,  she took down Rio and Margie’s in similar conditions this year,  placed second at France last year and is owned by only 18% of teams (pretty good for the thin tier).  We’ll reel it in a bit by recognizing that Conlogue trails Carissa Moore in QSFW 10-16.  She also just behind both Moore and Sally Fitzgibbons in FRA career AHS with 14.43 (compared to their 14.73 and 14.53 respectively),  but let’s be honest,  those are all very close and very good.  Courtney was absolutely dominant at the sharp-snapping,  overhead Box this year and if the women get some throaty conditions she’s going to capitalize.

Sally Fitzgibbons (14.37 Proj AHS for 94.78 Proj Pts / 15% Start) and Carissa Moore (14.4 Proj AHS for 99.74 Proj Pts / 55% Start) – Carissa Moore is almost a Trap,  but the truth is that all three Tier A ladies have a good chance at going the distance for France.  She’s on too many teams for us,  though,  and we’re surprised she’s sticking around on that many of them after Cascais.  If the waves go overhead,  Moore also has the worst AHS in 6-10′ waves out of the top three at 14.61 (compared to Sally Fitzgibbon’s 14.97 and Courney Conlogue’s insane 15.35).  Pair that with a potentially daunting R1 draw against Stephanie Gilmore and we can safely back away from Carissa at France.  Sally,  on the other hand,  still makes for a solid pick in our book,  but Conlogue just happens to be better.

Tier B

We’re going to take a solid look at Tier B for the Roxy Pro France because more than half of these women are slated for success.  There’s also a lot of conversation around injury and the low-confidence-but-very-awesome forecast,  so let’s dissect.

LOCK:  Tatiana Weston-Webb (11.86 Proj AHS for 68.57 Proj Pts / 23% Start) – Tatiana’s projections are based on waves primarily in the 4-6′ range,  but following a recent push in equality for women’s surfing they may get a crack at prime conditions in the overhead range.  If that’s the case,  you’ll want to make sure Tati is on your squad.  Even if not,  she did well to surpass our expectations at Cascais in small chop and has proven some versatility.  West is up against a formidable Bianca Buitendag in R1 which may be tough,  but she’s shown experience beyond CT years with her strategy and mental game.  Tatiana has a solid France AHS at 12.46 (QS only,  no CT experience yet) and while there are some risks,  she capped them with that Cascais performance.  She’s on fewer teams than Tyler Wright – lock it up.

Malia Manuel (13.01 Proj AHS for 69.53 Proj Pts / 11% Start) – Malia Manuel is another solid pick for the tier.  She would have been a sleeper if Johanne Defay didn’t have a lower start percentage,  but at 11%,  she’s still a great value play.  It’s tough to recommend a Tier B option that isn’t Tatiana,  Lakey,  Bianca or Steph,  but Malia shouldn’t be completely overlooked.  She’s rocking a 13.76 AHS in 4-6′ waves and has a 12.89 France AHS for 2 QSFW.  We mostly like Manuel for the forecast – if the horizon comes alive she’ll be a top contender alongside Weston-Webb.  Check out the two turns she carved into this beast at Margaret River earlier in the season:

Malia finished the Drug Aware with a big-league 15.21 AHS for 93.51 points through the SF,  so she’s more than capable going frontside in the overhead range.  She also put in a solid performance in Brazil for a 12.63 AHS and 66.36 points.  Lakey Peterson fared similar in Rio (12.99 AHS / 67.79 Pts),  but much worse at Margie’s (12.37 AHS / 67.79 Pts).  Bigger surf on deck has us thinking Manuel for some upsets;  Lakey is only mustering a 10.27 average on 6-10′ waves and she was outscored by Manuel here last year 50.67 – 60.87.  She’s no LOCK,  but Malia might turn some têtes in France.

Trap Queen

Tyler Wright (13.49 Proj AHS for 75.82 Proj Pts / 29% Start) – Ladies and gentlemen,  we have a new #TrapQueen.  Tyler Wright,  we’re sure,  is witnessing some rollover start percentage from Cascais,  but it’s interesting to note that it’s actually gone up since then (+2%).  Apparently,  people care that she won France last year.  We outlined in our Trestles Outlook how that doesn’t matter without current momentum.  Wright won the 2014 US Open and absolutely tanked this year,  remember?  She was a Tier B bust for Cascais posting an icy 45.01 points for 27% of teams and it looks like no one has learned a thing.  Tyler looks appealing for France with a career 13.78 AHS,  29 QSFW and 14.07 in 4-6′ surf,  but she’s just a completely different surfer this year.

Let’s take a look at Tyler Wright’s finishes.  Through 8 events last year she was 3rd or better 5 times,  had made 4 Finals and won twice.  This year she’s only finished 3rd twice and has yet to surf a Final.  Her average finish has dropped from 3.5 last year to 6.5 so far in 2015 and it doesn’t look like she’ll be picking that up any time soon.  It’s a Trap – fade all day

Risky Business

Lakey Peterson (13.26 Proj AHS for 90.04 Proj Pts / 40% Start)  – We’ve been extremely impressed with Lakey Peterson the last few events.  She’s honed,  fit,  cunning and confident.  You have to like that package heading into Europe plus Lakey has the highest projected points in Tier B and some serious momentum behind her.  Toss in an even better seed this time around and you’ve got what feels like winning formula.  We had her as a recommendation for Cascais and she took fourth place with 74.68 points.  Those conditions,  though still varied,  might be very different considering what’s on tap for the Roxy Pro.  If the waves are going to be overhead at any point,  Peterson will be at a disadvantage as she has not excelled there.  She’s got some pretty good France career numbers (13.22 AHS / 3 QSFW),  but last year she was outscored by 5/7 of the current B-hive with a 50.67 total.  That’s almost exactly the 50.26 median and not too good for 40% representation this year.  Still,  Lakey’s been surfing the best of her career and that always counts for something.  We’re going to be bold and not take her for the Roxy Pro France,  but only because there are so many other great options in Tier B.

Stephanie Gilmore (14.25 Proj AHS for 69.75 Proj Pts / 0% Start) – 0% of teams have Stephanie Gilmore right now.  Let’s just say that it ends up being 5% by the time they blow the R1 horn – this is still pretty incredible.  The withdraw probability shrinks every day we inch closer to the Roxy Pro,  and Gilmore seems determined to get back into the competition.  She’s no longer a threat for the Title,  but we assume she doesn’t want to fall any further in the rankings anyway.  Obviously Steph is one of the most lethal surfers on tour,  but she’s missed five straight events and has barely surfed since April.  It’s difficult to come back and surf at 100% after so much time out of the water,  and France is a grueling place to try it;  this location will test every surfing ability she has and expose any weakness.  We’re going to give it a pass this time around because aside from the withdraw risk,  we haven’t seen her post-injury form.  At anywhere <5% started,  it’ll be a short pool of competition with minimum risk in a fade.  But that’s just us.

Sleeper

Johanne Defay (11.87 Proj AHS for 74.45 Proj Pts / 8% Start) – Johanne Defay has made a name for herself this year and is still only 8% started.  Definitely take advantage of it if you can muster the courage.  We like Nikki Van Dijk for the Sleeper spot, but her R1 against Sally Fitz is a deterrent.  Defay has a 3 QSFW in France but only 11.59 career AHS so you’ll have to hope she wins R1.  The good news is that against current head-scratchers Tyler Wright and Silvana Lima,  she’s got a chance to do just that.

Quick note on Bianca Buitendag (13.16 Proj AHS for 83.81 Pts / 17% Start) – We like Bianca a lot for France,  too, but she was a bit disappointing at Cascais (only 42.06 points).  So we’ll let that 17% test her out again.  The one benefit she’ll have here is wave size – as a taller surfer she’ll use this to her advantage.

Tier C

LOCK:  Alessa Quizon (8.68 Proj AHS for 24.77 Proj Pts / 17% Start) – Somehow,  Laura Enever has the highest tier start percentage for the second time in a row.  But we’ll get to that.  Alessa Quizon will be a solid go-to if the waves go overhead with an 11.48 AHS in 6-10′ surf (that’s better than Lakey Peterson).  She also impressed with her Cascais performance,  dropping a huge 71.05 points.  This Hawaiian is killer in the late-drop,  tuck and pray game;  The catch?  So is Tatiana Weston-Webb,  who she’ll face in R1.  Hey listen – Tier C is never going to give you much to work with,  but Quizzy is surfing at a higher level this year.

Les Misérables

Laura Enever (10.85 Proj AHS for 20.08 Proj Pts / 22% Start) – Well this better change.  For the second straight event,  Laura Enever leads Tier C at 22% started.  We could understand if she wowed you in Portugal,  but she only put up 15.13 points.  2014 France:  18.47 Pts;  2015 Margaret River:  13.67 Pts;  2015 Rio:  18.94 Pts.  We’re talking total points here,  not AHS.  Besides Fiji Enever has never placed better than 13th on the rankings and has trouble breaking 20 Total Fantasy Points.  What is everyone thinking?

Sleeper

Silvana Lima (11.69 Proj AHS for 56.71 Proj Pts) – We said we wouldn’t recommend Silvana Lima anymore as long as she was in Tier B.  Well it’s exactly one event later and she’s surfin’ in the C.  Lima still has way too much upside to ignore at this tier and we love her R1 match-up against Tyler Wright and Johanne Defay.  Honestly,  if Wright and Lima show up in their current forms Defay is going to take them out.  But if Silvana comes alive,  there’s a chance she can get to R3.  A QF would be nice,  but you can’t expect that from anyone down here.  She’s also got the highest seed within the C level,  a 12.2 FRA career AHS and 4 QSFW – she can do it.

[tabby title=”Fantasy Surfer Men’s”]

Men’s Fantasy Surfer Outlook

Mick Fanning is back in action as far as we’re concerned,  effectively proving he’s out of any shark-induced funk by winning Trestles.  Julian Wilson remains in time-out after his 76 point finish,  though,  and we won’t likely consider him until Pipe at the earliest.

Jeremy Flores didn’t win Trestles,  but he put up a solid 14th place for 85 points – a solid return for $5M.  If you took our advice on picking him up before Tahiti,  he will continue to pay out for the rest of 2015.

Jordy Smith and Matt Banting have officially withdrawn from France.  We’re also losing Freddy Patacchia to retirement,  Taj Burrow to dad-duty and possibly Kelly Slater for Europe.  They will be replaced by Alejo Muniz,  Tomas Hermes, Aritz Aranburu and a fourth to be determined (most likely Caio Ibelli) while FRA Wild Cards are Dane Reynolds and Maxime Huscenot.

There are going to be a few updates to our roster between FRA and PRT,  mainly in favor of wave direction (FRA is mainly Right and Left/Right while PRT hosts Left-hander Supertubos).  Aside from that,  conditions will look fairly similar.  Guys like Nat Young,  Ricardo Christie and (hopefully) Aritz Aranburu will likely have more success at Portugal and the Pipe Masters,  so we can safely avoid them at France.  We’ll analyze the QuikPro from the bottom up,  starting with our big event hopeful…

Dane Reynolds ($1.5M / 84 Proj FS Pts) – Dane has been very successful in France over his spotty CT career,  posting a 13.95 FRA AHS and 8 QSFW.  He’s also averaging well into the 12’s for Beach Breaks and Left/Right conditions,  so we’re feeling really good about this spot start.  You can’t beat this price (literally,  he’s at the bottom) and since we recommend at least one revolving-door spot on your team,  we hope you have some flexibility for Reynolds.  Through 4 CT events this year,  he’s still waiting to find some of that 2010 magic and there’s no guarantee that it will happen.  France may present his final opportunity to make a QF in 2015 and we might be silly for believing in him,  but we do.  There is nothing that would suggest he has found any new spark,  but he’s too gifted to ignore at the cheapest price available.  We’re projecting Dane to rake in the most Pts/$ at 5.6 – that’s some solid value.

Alejo Muniz ($1.5M / 47 Proj FS Pts) – Not all bargain-bin items are created equal,  and Alejo Muniz is a great example of why you should avoid “price picking” (taking a surfer simply because he fits your remaining budget or shares a price tag).  Alejo and Dane Reynolds are seemingly on par,  but Muniz is only projected for 47 points at France.  That’s likely due in part to his Left/Right and Beach Break conditions AHS barely breaking 11,  but he also has a very solid career 12.44 AHS and 1 QSFW in FRA.  So if you have to choose,  take Dane (even though he might not be around for Portugal),  he’s projected to almost double Alejo’s points.  Aritz Aranburu can be thrown into the talks as a solid value ($1.5M / 76 Proj FS Pts) – but only due to that price.

We think it would be beneficial to grab them both,  though.  That’s a projected 131 FS Pts for $3M,  the equivalent of Ricardo Christie placing 5th,  and a huge value.  That leaves you with $47M to fiddle with the remaining 1/4 of your team at an average of $7.83M per surfer.  Sounds like a plan,  but where we go from there get’s a bit tricky.

WTJJF?

John John Florence ($6.250M / 151 Proj FS Pts) – John John was horrible at Trestles.  He got taken out by Glenn Hall,  a rare feat.  Rather than go the route we’ve seen other commentary trend,  we’re not ready to blame that on the heat’s conditions.  Florence certainly lost that round,  but Glenn Hall earned that one soup-to-nuts.  He knifed through turns with such uncharacteristic torque he could have wrung himself dry.  Hall surfed his heart out and was handsomely rewarded for it.

John John,  on the other hand,  barely made a move.  Watch Glenn’s highlights and you’ll notice that the opportunities were there;  was Florence waiting for a better set than those?  Was he piecing together a mental film edit?  Or was he simply unprepared to put in any effort against a statistically inferior opponent?  It’s most likely the latter.  John John isn’t scrappy,  aggressive,  or seemingly concerned at all when he’s in a heat,  and though he’s won plenty of them it’s never been the result of determination or grit.  Talent has taken Florence as far as it will take him,  but without that extra gear he’s doomed to stay marginal or get swallowed up by his Brazilian contemporaries.  Basically what were saying is he’s still a fade,  even as reigning FRA Champion – the upside is definitely there,  but for us,  the risk outweighs it.

Pick Up or Stick With

Italo Ferreira ($6.5M / 103 Proj FS Pts) – Italo continues to impress through his first big-league tour.   He has proven an ability to win in any situation – wind,  wave or opponent be damned.  France is one of the most difficult locations on the CT in terms of merciless variety for any given contest.  Fast-breaking,  hollow beach barrels to long open faces to low tide, afternoon chop – nothing is off the table.  Ferreira seems to have mastered all of these conditions and shown tremendous maturity in wave selection and strategy.  He’s no longer cheap,  but hopefully you’ve had him since we started lauding his abilities after Jeffreys Bay.  Italo has a 13.61 AHS in 4-6′ surf and a 12.98 AHS in Left/Right Beach Breaks – look for yet another promising and well-rounded performance from the young phenom.

Gabriel Medina ($11.5M / 250 Proj FS Pts) – Medina is in a select class of surfers who will fare well at all three remaining events in 2015.  He’s found the rhythm he had lost in Australia this year and has been steadily clawing his way back towards the top.  Heading into FRA,  Gabriel is a CT win and a half away from first place,  but right now it’s Mick’s to lose.  We’re projecting that win to come right here in France for Medina,  and if he can lock it down,  it will be a turning point for his season.  He’s trending in the right direction and historically,  France has been a make-or-break stop for World Title contenders.  We’re only ignoring Mick Fanning in our Outlook because we’ve suggested against him in the previous two events;  we don’t want to backtrack now as he’s an expensive pickup,  but it appears as though he’ll be battling with Adriano de Souza for the 2015 crown.  Medina is a long-shot,  but the shot is there nonetheless,  and $11.5M might be the cheapest you can score him moving forward.  At this point Medina needs to not only surf well in France,  but take down the event to stay relevant in the Title conversation.  His ferocious competitive nature will make him a frightening opponent.

Honorable Mentions

Ricardo Christie ($3M / 38 Proj FS Pts) – A less expensive and low percentage draft pick,  Ricardo Christie has failed to negotiate his rankings position very well this year.  France will look much like a combination of Christie’s only 2015 successes in Rio and Margaret River,  so there’s some chance he will finally break the slump.  Aside from that,  the rest of the year breaks down into favorable conditions and maybe he can grab a bit of fire – after all,  Ricardo is on the CT ropes at #32.  He’s a better pick than price-mates Dusty Payne (start %) and Matt Banting (withdraw probability) – so if you need a guy,  we’re just sayin’… Low risk/high upside,  good value for the remaining events.

Wiggolly Dantas ($6.25M / 126 Proj FS Pts) – Same price as Florence,  same favorability in the events following FRA,  but definitely polar opposite in terms of momentum.  Dantas is getting better and better as the year progresses and we’re closing in on Portugal and Pipe,  where we projected before this season that he would make a big final push.  France predominantly favors regular-footers with most waves peeling right,  but check out Wiggolly’s RLD:  1.97 as a goofy-foot – that’s versatility in a nutshell.  We’re projecting an 11.57 AHS for Dantas,  and we think the system is being modest.  He has a +13 AHS in all upcoming conditions.  France won’t be his big 2015 event,  but it will follow shortly after – Dantas loves Pipe and should have no trouble with Supertubos on deck.  Grab him now if you haven’t already.

Les Misérables

Matt Wilkinson ($5M / 42 Proj FS Pts) and Josh Kerr ($8M / 75 Proj FS Pts) – Yikes,  this was supposed to be Matt Wilkinson’s year to break away from the middle pack,  and Josh Kerr’s to solidify himself as a possible top-5 mainstay.  Neither has happened and they are both coming into France ragged,  beatdown and without momentum.  Don’t expect much from either surfer,  Wilko owns a career 7.71 France AHS while Kerrzy’s got a 10.49,  but at least he also has a 3 QSFW compared to Wilko’s goose-egg.

Aritz Aranburu ($1.5M / 76 Proj FS Pts) – We mentioned Aritz earlier as a great value pick,  but take that with a grain of salt as it’s just based on his low cost.  Aranburu has only put up a 10.76 AHS over his career at France with a o QSFW.

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Women’s Fantasy Surfer Outlook

Courtney’s back on top of the women’s heap following Cascais – an event we would have expected her to have less success at,  but she proved some versatility that will be helpful in France.  Other shifts in the rankings have increased or decreased values as well,  here’s a quick summary of market shifts after Portugal – Green is up,  red is down (duh):

↑ C.  Conlogue  |  L.  Peterson  |  J.  Defay  |  N.  Van Dijk  |  A. Quizon ↑

↓ C.  Moore  |  B.  Buitendag  |  T.  Wright  |  S.  Gilmore  |  C.  Ho  |  D.  Stoyle ↓

It’s interesting to note that even though Dimity put up a huge event (99 FS Pts) she still dropped.  That’s specifically due to Alessa Quizon having an even better Cascais (120 FS Pts)  and climbing the rankings spot anyway.  Both these surfers should make your consideration table for France as they are affordable and surfing with a ton of momentum.

Keepers

Johanne Defay ($7M / 125 Proj FS Pts) – We’re still loving Johanne Defay as she climbed the rankings yet again after Cascais.  Defay was our sleeper pick for Portugal and two things happened:  1.  No one took our advice;  Johanne only represented for 10% of teams and 2.  She totally cashed in!  She put up a solid 130 FS Pts and was definitely a great value.  We like her again for France,  where her 11.99 career AHS has been good enough for a 3 QSFW.  Last year she put up a 12.52 AHS for a SF berth and only lost to a nearly perfect Tyler Wright (who is much less than perfect this year).  She’s still at $7M and still a great value at this price.

Stephanie Gilmore ( $4.5M / 120 Proj FS Pts) – We’re going to start with Gilmore since the Roxy Pro is slated to kick off in less than 24 hours.  So far,  no word of withdrawal so we’ll assume at this point she’ll be surfing.  If she does,  you can’t expect a great turnout in FRA.  Gilmore has been out of the water for almost 6 months;  she’s way out of practice and will likely have some confidence lost with the knee.  France will test every aspect of her surfing and there are bound to be weaknesses within her game.  But,  she’s Steph Gilmore – one of the most fiercely competitive and winningest surfers in the world.  Even if she turns in a QF-and-out she’ll jump again in value.  If this were earlier in the season,  we wouldn’t hesitate to pick her up at such a low price,  but it’s not.  There’s only one event to follow this year so you won’t stand to make much of a ROI based on time-frame alone.  Stay away from Gilmore at France,  if she proves she’s still got it,  the price increase won’t break your bank between Europe and Maui. 

Sleepers

Silvana Lima ($3M / 75 Proj FS Pts) – It’s impossible to ignore Silvana Lima at this price,  especially given her R1 Heat Draw against Tyler Wright and Johanne Defay.  You can put Lima and Defay on par here while we don’t expect much of a performance out of Wright given her recent stretch.  We probably wouldn’t recommend Silvana anywhere over the $4.25M mark,  but if you need to conserve budget somewhere it’s either her or Sage Erickson.  We want Conlogue for France,  so Lima affords us such finer things in life.

Malia Manuel ($6M / 100 Proj FS Pts) – There is a ton of upside in Malia Manuel for France if the expected conditions line up.  She’s one of the best in overhead-double overhead waves in this price bracket (she has a 12.86 AHS in 6-10′ waves,  compare that to Lakey Peterson’s chilly 10.27)  and with conditions expected to show up in that range,  Manuel could piece together a good one.  Malia locked in a 15.21 event AHS at Margaret River this year in big, right-handed surf so we like that as a key metric for success in FRA.  Plus she’ll be a solid option for Maui to finish the year.

Les Misérables

Tyler Wright ($6.5M / 130 Proj FS Pts) – Look,  when we’re right,  we’re right.  And Wright is once again the wrong pick.  She failed to make top 10 in Cascais and she’s trending way down in terms of performance.  Tyler hasn’t looked this bad consecutively in her entire career.  Something is going on and her floor for France is realistically R2.  That’s terrible for anyone +$5M and she’s just not a financially sound decision.

Laura Enever ($3M / 50 Proj FS Pts) – We don’t know what everyone else saw in Laura Enever for Cascais,  but we wisely advised against following the lemmings.  Somehow,  Enever ended up disappointing 32% of teams.  It’s crazy to think there were that many who took her,  more teams,  in fact,  than Sage Erickson (70 FS Pts),  Alessa Quizon (120 FS Pts)  and even the red-hot Dimity Stoyle (99 FS Pts).  We hope the trend breaks for France because there’s no reason Laura should be an option moving forward.  Portugal was her second straight 5o point finish and she’s only averaging 70 FS Pts per event in 2015.  Get your heads straight and move along.

Upper Deck

From here on out, you’re probably going to have to stick with your top-priced surfer.  Right now that’s Courtney Conlogue ($10M / 225 Proj FS Pts),  Lakey Peterson ($9.5M / 190 Proj FS Pts),  Sally Fitzgibbons ($9.5M / 200 Proj FS Pts)  or Carissa Moore ($9M / 250 Proj FS Pts).  Conlogue and Fitzgibbons check out reasonably at these prices.  We’re going to make a suggestion about Peterson and Moore though.  If you are trying to figure out which one of these two to pick up as an option,  it’s gotta be Carissa.  Our model is projecting her to win the event but aside from that,  she’s very likely to do great in HAW up next.  Lakey just isn’t that solid in overhead surf as we mentioned earlier,  and isn’t worth the risk even here in France.  If R1 shows up with a solid swell,  Malia Manuel might force her into a R2 situation.  Alternatively,  Moore will pick up Steph Gilmore,  who is likely going to be out of synch if she surfs,  and Sage Erickson who hasn’t been able to translate her QS success on the CT.  We definitely like Conlogue to win the event,  and that makes her worth the top price,  but Sally has a fighting chance as well and would save you $.5M – not that bad.  We recommend sticking with whomever you’ve got unless that’s Lakey Peterson,  who you should only keep if you stashed her two or more events ago.

Buckle up all around,  though,  France is a capricious breaking beach with wind extremes and tidal swings that will make your head spin.  There’s a lot of uncertainty because of environmental factors (much more so than normal,  anyway)  so definitely stay up on the forecast and reference our Conditions AHS Table as appropriate.  Our hearts are pulling for Silvana Lima to save her season.

Just taking a quick poll of how many of you actually read this article,  it would help us out to know so take a quick second and vote your answer – thank you!

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Hope that helps,  and seriously – check out our Surf-Stats Men’s and Women’s Clubhouse on WSL Fantasy Surfing (  Password:  fantasy  )  to put your team against ours and other S-S members.  Winners will be honored in our upcoming Hall of Fame!  Oh stop…  it’s cool.

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