“I love surfing big, left barrels; it’s my favourite thing in the world. And… to kind of show that I can match, match or beat these guys is, not, I guess, (it) shuts the critics up, but it also gets me feeling pretty good about myself”

– 2016 ratings leader and Fiji runner-up Matt Wilkinson.

Wilko is back, baby!

We put him on our FS team, and dammit if we didn’t swap between him and Italo in the WSL game a few times (deciding, predictably, to stay with the lesser choice of Italo). Wilko truly went beyond the history and above the stats to set up his third final of the year at an event where he had previously tanked. I can’t help but feeling though, despite loving the success of the ‘new’ 2016 Wilko, there’s something strange about the way in which that lovable lout has been replaced by this new competitive machine. I think that Rory Parker at beachgrit put it best:

“I don’t like the new Wilko. Conservative, professional, consistent. Like running into some guy you used to party with and he’s a local bank assistant manager with three ugly children and a stress induced hairline. And he’s totally happy, which is what makes it even worse.”

Here’s our Fiji wash-up:

• It was great to see Slater back in full-flight. He was aggressive, he was graceful, and – above all – he was confident. Check the AHS graph below; he dominated the contest. Nobody gets the highest fantasy score without making a final, except Slater at Fiji. Check the newfound (rediscovered?) arrogance in the way he tore Wiggolly’s heat tactics to shreds in his post-heat interview. He was right, but it was still uncomfortable to hear such unfiltered honesty so soon after a competitive smackdown. It was his arrogance that brought him undone though, as he lost focus, lost his rhythm and fell prey to the always-clinical Medina (again, check the SF post-heat interview; Slater himself admits that he got ahead of himself and made mistakes)
• Not everything that Slater did was smooth. How awkward was the exchange between Slater, Mick and Ace (check the star features at the bottom of the heat analyser in QF4)? I get the feeling that Taj Aussie-bro-down crew weren’t really feeling the love for a resurgent Kelly Slater.
• Speaking of Taj: What a way to go out… It could be suggested that there is a certain poetic justice in ‘the greatest tour surfer to never win a world title’ surfing his final heat against the man most likely to replace him for that dubious honour, but I think that’s a little unfair; what about Jordy? Or Gabe Kling for that matter?
• Medina has the best contest game on tour at the moment, hands-down. ADS may have garnered a title through sheer tenacity and drive, but when you combine Gabe’s heat intelligence with his exceptional talent, it makes for a pretty intimidating combination (yes, we are implying that Medina has more talent than ADS)
• JJF still hasn’t won a CT contest in big lefts, and Gabe still hasn’t won a CT contest in Brazil. John John has two Rio titles, and Medina has 2 Fiji wins and a Chopes title. Go figure.
• Wildcards don’t win in Fiji. We called it. We knew. Then we went and listened to Fiji local Stu Johnson (who is knowledgeable, but most likely biased towards local surfers). We tried to be clever by picking a surfer that nobody wanted; we failed miserably. Never again.
• Julian is a serious risk when it comes to fantasy this year. Three 25ths in five events is woeful, but there’s also a 2^nd and a 9^th in there to just tempt you. Who’s going to have the balls to pick him at J-Bay?
• Conner and the Spartan need to go back to priority 101. Those interference calls were blatant and, especially in Conner’s case, stupid. It just goes to show how much respect they have for Cloudbreak, as straightening out was the only safe option (competitively) and neither of them had the balls to do it
• Keanu won a heat, leaving Alex all alone as the last remaining surfer in contention for a ‘Raoni’ this year. Good luck to him, we say
• It was so damn good to see some quality waves

Results Breakdown

Congratulations to the following fantasy winners:

Surf-Stats WSL group overall – Kanos is the new champion, with 2713.32 points (1246^th overall) and 630.75 for the contest.

Surf-Stats WSL group event – Herbie with a healthy 681.02 for Fiji, placing him at 581^st overall for the event.

Surf-Stats FS group overall –The Badger is still well out in front, but with a 1023 event total and an overall FS ranking of 7^th, we’re hardly surprised. Badger, if you read this: contact us. We’re keen for an interview from a big dog in the fantasy world.

Surf-Stats FS group event – Surf-Stats. Yep, I had to check it twice myself. Despite stinking it up for the first part of the year, we had the best Fiji score in the clubhouse with a solid 1036. Wilko paid off for us.

Event AHS graph via Mike Jordan @fantasyWSL

Best Possible Team

765.89 is a damn good score. Jadson and Ace were obviously the sleeper picks, with 6% and 9% respectively, but it wasn’t a super-risky team that got the big points in the end. The top 4 surfers in regards to ownership (Medina, Slater, Mick, JJF) were all in there, and Wilko was 7^th the highest as well (however, Julian and Italo were above him). There were a lot of teams with 600+ scores for this event.

Worst Possible Team

At only 159.85 points, this team scored lower than the worst possible Rio team. Two of them were on our team:

Surf-Stats Projection Reflections

The numbers team fared better than our picks in the WSL game, but our FS team was too strong for the stats:

Surf-Stats WSL: 507.01

Numbers WSL: 537.14

Surf-Stats FS: 1036

Numbers FS: 918

Our projections picked the winner (we were all over Medina) and we suggested Mick, Kelly and John John across most models. We were off with our Wilko projections, but we did say that his 2016 form was contrary to our models. We even picked him for one of our teams. We warned against a wildcard and we picked Taj as a risk. We went wrong with suggesting Caio and Italo on form and our sleepers all dozed. Overall we did OK, but missed a few opportunities.

Event awards

These winners are in the running to claim the overall SS awards at the end of the year:

Biggest single manoeuvre: It may be a little controversial at such an event, but we’re running with the ‘barrels aren’t manoeuvres’ rule and giving this to an actual ‘move’. There were plenty of great rail connoisseurs: JJF had two great turns in his 8.13 against Taj. Slater and Dusty both threw buckets in R4, and Ace and Wilko put down some great forehand man-turns. However, I’m giving it to the massive alley-oop Medina threw down in R3 against Banting. Not because I don’t like turns, and not because Fiji is an alley-oop kind of wave, but mostly because it was a quality manoeuvre to finish off an already good wave and the judges stiffed him. Take that, judges.

Best wave: There were two perfect 10s at the event (Slater and Medina), but there were plenty more that were in the running for best wave. Slater also got a 9.8 and a 9.7, John John had a 9.93, Mick had a 9.8, and some of the 8+ rides were also incredible. If I have to choose one wave though, it would be Slater’s 10. The way he seamlessly went top-to-bottom with his turn to set up his second barrel was magical, and I’d wager that few other people could have surfed that wave as well. Watch both of the 10s again, you’ll see Gabe stalling for his second tube, where as Slater is just driving hard off the bottom after gouging a big turn. It was an 11.

Best heat: is there any debate? Taj vs. John John had everything: two talented surfers in prime form, quality waves, an impending retirement, lead changes, monster barrels, shouts from the boats; everything. Then there’s the quantitative value – the heat was by far the greatest of the event in regards to average scores (9.43 average wave score), but there were that many good waves in the 35 minute heat that, even if you knocked out the two top-scoring waves for each surfer, their back-up scores would have still provided the highest scoring heat average (8.225 average back-up wave score, compared to the next closest heat in R4, H4 Wilko/JJF/Ace with 8.03). It will be hard to beat as the heat of the year.

Biggest disappointments: We’re nit-picking here. JJF could make this list again, after failing to convert on his early form. Slater should really have made the final, but his efforts were hardly disappointing. Julian was certainly eligible. The worst part of the contest though was probably the massive wait between rounds 2 and 3. All was forgiven once we saw what the new swell delivered.

Most impressive: Slater may have lost to the event winner, but he was mesmerising in the earlier rounds. He was a different man from the broken competitor that we saw in the Australian leg. Jadson Andre deserves a shout-out here as well, beating Medina in R1, Italo in R3, and surfing well throughout.

The J-Bay contest is our next destination, kicking off on July 6. There will be plenty to say about a return to this particular event, so we look forward to launching into the lead-up. Mick is still in the mix, Slater has some form, Wilko loves the place and Jordy will have plenty to prove. We will have our sortable data tables up in a week or so and a full J-Bay analysis soon after.