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Contest Metrics - Portugal 2017

Contest Metrics - Portugal 2017

Last updated October 18, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

Our heat score projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

You may notice a few new categories in our stats, such as winning % for the season as well as the number of heats surfed by each surfer in the event since 2014.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

*The wildcards’ data has been added, but they have not been seeded into our projections due to their limited data.

Contest Metrics

2017 WP = winning percentage for the 2017 season,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
# Heats = total number of heats surfed at this event from 2014 onwards,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
Form = AHS from previous 3 WSL events,
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+' size,
Beach = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on our algorithm,

NAME	2017 WP	AET	EAHS	# Heats	2017 AHS	ALL AHS	Form	1-4'	4-6'	6-8'	8-10'+	Beach	Left/Right	Proj AHS	Proj Score
John John Florence	75	85.31	14.09	16	16.05	14.64	16.52	14.15	14.03	15.69	15.70	13.72	14.38	14.45	127.2
Gabriel Medina	66.67	50.91	11.86	10	14.14	13.99	14.84	14.16	14.36	14.77	13.10	14	14	13.85	121.88
Jordy Smith	62.22	110.83	14.2	12	14.02	12.87	13.11	13.89	13.1	14.24	10.48	13.11	13.81	13.54	104.29
Adriano De Souza	63.64	64.93	12.14	12	13.7	13.06	12.73	13.56	13.43	12.98	11.75	13.98	13.78	13.25	102.02
Mick Fanning	50	81.62	14.75	9	13.57	14.05	13.76	15.09	13.18	14.58	14.65	14.03	14.06	14.13	89
Filipe Toledo	59.38	78.58	13.48	14	13.35	12.8	13.13	14.9	13.3	11.56	11.04	13.33	14.32	13.44	84.66
Julian Wilson	56.76	37.73	11.32	10	14.18	12.86	13.76	13.84	12.94	14.68	11.39	12.53	12.96	12.89	81.18
Matt Wilkinson	61.11	30.38	12.49	6	12.71	11.47	11.85	12.49	11.98	11.56	10.98	11.84	11.81	11.97	75.39
Frederico Morais	48.39	64.3	13.76	6	12.87	12.96	13.44	13.33	12.88	16.89	12.97	13.18	13.41	13.59	67.95
Owen Wright	55	30.18	10.61	4	13.85	13.19	12.71	13.59	12.74	12.98	13.80	13.58	13.41	12.76	63.81
Kolohe Andino	51.52	67.77	13.08	13	12.38	12.19	12.61	12.28	13.09	12.11	11.21	12.71	12.35	12.64	63.19
Joel Parkinson	50	60.52	12.22	12	12.39	12.81	10.41	13.78	13.54	13.05	11.85	12.25	12.28	12.55	62.76
Joan Duru	38.71			0	13.04	13.94	13.28	14.06	13.6	14.9	7.99	14.44	14.57	14.14	53.73
Italo Ferreira	42.11	81.64	14.83	9	13.04	13.03	12.73	13.87	13.26	13.46	11.67	13.32	13.33	13.55	51.48
Jeremy Flores	44.44	53.36	12.27	12	14.28	12.78	14.18	14.01	12.75	12.9	11.56	12.03	12.66	12.77	48.54
Connor O'Leary	45.16			0	12.01	12.01	12.15	12.02	12.04	13.75	11.42	12.37	11.87	12.25	46.54
Sebastian Zietz	44.44	50.6	12.17	11	13.05	12.17	13.1	12.13	11.86	12.75	11.69	11.28	11.71	12.02	45.66
Adrian Buchan	45.16	15.53	7.76	6	13.75	12.25	13.73	11.51	13.16	13.14	11.71	12.09	12.22	11.76	44.68
Ian Gouveia	31.82			0	12.63	12.63	12.86	11.64	13.07	12.34	10.47	13.37	11.98	12.63	35.05
Nat Young	30	38.48	12.41	8	12.1	12.22	11.16	12.33	11.86	13.04	10.87	12.68	12.32	12.27	34.06
Conner Coffin	31.03	91.99	11.5	8	12.77	12.39	11.57	12.32	11.82	13.71	14.21	11.88	12.77	12.16	33.75
Bede Durbidge	39.29	47.37	11.22	7	12.62	11.3	12.03	14.52	11.56	11.51	8.85	13.29	12.19	12.16	33.73
Caio Ibelli	40.74	39.91	13.31	6	11.66	11.53	10.61	12.38	11.37	13.03	14.16	11.08	11.39	11.82	32.8
Michel Bourez	42.86	49.62	9.92	15	13.03	11.77	11.77	12	12.24	11.92	12.10	10.35	10.96	11.2	31.08
Ezekiel Lau	28			0	12.14	12.14	12.59	13.96	11.97	13.85	10.59	12.93	14.32	13.1	23.58
Jack Freestone	22.73	26.77	13.39	2	11.76	12.24	11.56	12.79	11.97	11.35	11.16	11.94	12.6	12.31	22.16
Wiggolly Dantas	30	32.79	12.15	4	12.05	11.36	11.23	13.13	11.15	12.65	7.69	12.63	12.01	12.02	21.63
Jadson Andre	21.74	34.5	11.43	6	11.44	11.55	12.99	12.33	12.03	10.75	10.78	11.6	11.97	11.81	21.25
Josh Kerr	10.53	58.59	13.8	8	10.76	11.58	11.57	13.52	11.69	11.19	10.08	12.21	12.23	12.31	20.93
Miguel Pupo	28	50.17	12.41	8	11.04	11.05	11.07	12.35	10.8	10.42	8.79	11.97	11.63	11.54	20.78
Kanoa Igarashi	26.92	33.33	11.11	3	10.54	11.86	10.83	12.37	10.77	8.1	10.34	12.35	12.34	11.36	20.45
Leonardo Fioravanti	20.83			0	11.99	11.83	12.63	12.8	11.49	14.1	13.72	10.49	11.61	11.85	20.15
Vasco Ribeiro			13.08	6				12.58	10.4			11.67	11.67	11.8	20.06
Stuart Kennedy	18.18	52.88	10.58	5	10.9	10.88	9.45	12.48	10.52	11.72	9.04	12.49	11.62	11.25	19.12
Mason Ho			9.18	3		11.62		10.17			9.78	9.18	9.18	9.61	16.34
Ethan Ewing	15			0	10.77	10.77	10.78	10.68	10.05	8.84	9.84	7.96	9.23	9.55	16.24

Fantasy Surfer Data

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
$ Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score

NAME	Value	Prev. Value	$ Change	AVG Pts	High Pts	Proj AHS	Proj Score	$1000/point
John John Florence	12250000	11500000	750000	141	250	14.45	250	46.00
Gabriel Medina	11000000	10000000	1000000	124	250	13.85	175	57.14
Adriano De Souza	7750000	8250000	-500000	117	250	13.25	151	54.64
Jordy Smith	11750000	12500000	-750000	135	250	13.54	150	83.33
Filipe Toledo	7500000	8250000	-750000	121	250	13.44	128	64.45
Julian Wilson	9000000	10000000	-1000000	116	250	12.89	127	78.74
Matt Wilkinson	9250000	9750000	-500000	117	250	11.97	126	77.38
Mick Fanning	5500000	5000000	500000	97	127	14.13	125	40.00
Owen Wright	8750000	8750000	0	119	250	12.76	103	84.95
Frederico Morais	5250000	5500000	-250000	93	175	13.59	102	53.92
Kolohe Andino	8500000	7750000	750000	96	175	12.64	101	76.73
Joel Parkinson	7750000	7250000	500000	101	150	12.55	100	72.50
Italo Ferreira	4250000	5000000	-750000	85	126	13.55	86	58.14
Jeremy Flores	5250000	5500000	-250000	89	126	12.77	85	64.71
Connor O'Leary	4250000	5000000	-750000	89	175	12.25	84	59.52
Joan Duru	5250000	5000000	250000	82	126	14.14	83	60.24
Sebastian Zietz	7000000	6000000	1000000	96	175	12.02	82	73.17
Adrian Buchan	5500000	5750000	-250000	90	175	11.76	81	70.99
Caio Ibelli	4000000	3500000	500000	84	175	11.82	80	43.75
Michel Bourez	6750000	7250000	-500000	83	151	11.20	79	91.77
Bede Durbidge	5000000	5250000	-250000	84	126	12.16	78	67.31
Ian Gouveia	3250000	3000000	250000	70	101	12.63	77	38.96
Conner Coffin	4250000	5000000	-750000	73	103	12.16	76	65.79
Nat Young	1500000	1500000	0	69	100	12.27	75	20.00
Ezekiel Lau	3000000	3250000	-250000	68	150	13.10	47	69.15
Wiggolly Dantas	4000000	4750000	-750000	72	125	12.02	46	103.26
Miguel Pupo	4000000	3250000	750000	66	128	11.54	45	72.22
Kanoa Igarashi	4000000	4000000	0	15	125	11.36	44	90.91
Jack Freestone	3000000	3000000	0	60	150	12.31	43	69.77
Jadson Andre	3000000	3500000	-500000	61	102	11.81	42	83.33
Leonardo Fioravanti	3250000	3000000	250000	60	127	11.85	41	73.17
Stuart Kennedy	3250000	3000000	250000	56	102	11.25	40	75.00
Ethan Ewing	3250000	3500000	-250000	53	84	9.55	39	89.74
Josh Kerr	3000000	3250000	-250000	50	82	12.31	38	85.53

Combined Event History

Key:
* = older, 48-man contest format

Surfer	2009*	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	Total	Average
Conner Coffin								2	2	2.00
Joel Parkinson	3		5	3	3	13	5	9	41	5.86
John John Florence			9	5	9	3	13	1	40	6.67
Italo Ferreira							2	13	15	7.50
Jordy Smith	5	2	13	25	5	2		3	55	7.86
Mick Fanning	1	13	13	9	5	1	13		55	7.86
Filipe Toledo					13	5	1	13	32	8.00
Bede Durbidge	2		3	13	13	9	13		53	8.83
Frederico Morais							5	13	18	9.00
Stuart Kennedy								9	9	9.00
Adriano de Souza	9	25	1	3	13	5	13	5	74	9.25
Owen Wright	3	5	13	5		13	25		64	10.67
Julian Wilson			5	1	5	25	25	5	66	11.00
Sebastian Zietz					13	13	13	5	44	11.00
Kolohe Andino				9	25	13	9	3	59	11.80
Gabriel Medina			13	2	25	13	5	13	71	11.83
Jeremy Flores		3		5	25	25	5	9	72	12.00
Kelly Slater	17	1	2	13	25	13	13	13	97	12.13
Josh Kerr	33		13	5	3	5	13	13	85	12.14
Michel Bourez	33	9	5	13	13	9	9	9	100	12.50
Caio Ibelli							13	13	26	13.00
Kanoa Igarashi								13	13	13.00
Nat Young					2	25	9	25	61	15.25
Matt Wilkinson		9	13	25	9	25	13	25	119	17.00
Miguel Pupo			25	25	9	13	25	5	102	17.00
Jadson Andre		9	25	25		13	25	13	110	18.33
Wiggolly Dantas							25	13	38	19.00
Ace Buchan	17	5	25	9	25	25	25	25	156	19.50
Jack Freestone								25	25	25.00
Vasco Ribeiro							3		3	3.00
Mason Ho							13		13	13.00

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