Contest Analysis - Rio 2016
Last updated May 9, 2016 by Surf-Stats
Does anyone remember a time when the Brazilian CT event was held later in the year; wedged between the fickle Mudaka contest and the deservedly hyped Triple Crown circus? Back then, there was a period in his career when Slater would avoid the Brazilian leg if he believed that he could still win a title without needing to go. The message was thus: Kelly was untouchable and Brazil was not worth his time.
Things then changed; the contest sites shifted, the event was moved to a more favourable time of year, and it became impossible to tell whether you ‘needed’ to surf the event as the season was still young. They even got some decent waves for a few years. Kelly started showing up again. Surfing in Brazil slowly became more and more relevant.
Then the ‘Brazilian Storm’ happened. Brazilian surfers became more and more relevant. Their world-beating juniors were turning into world champions and everybody started sitting up and taking notice. The profile of surfing in Brazil grew exponentially and its events became places of genuine sporting fanaticism.
Now, in 2016, we seemed to have gone full circle. Except its Mick, Taj, Joel and Kai who are choosing not to surf the event. Except Slater looks more out-of-touch than untouchable. Except the contest site is in a nature reserve, away from the massive crowds and polluted water. Except Wilko is leading the world tour.
Maybe there is no cycle. Sometimes the only constant is change.
*post script – Kelly Slater has pulled out of the event. How’s that for full-circle?
Conditions
There’s no ‘will it or won’t it be at the Box?’ conversation for this event. Sure the contest has moved from its original break, but we are looking at similar conditions: sand bottom, right/left peaks, low-risk surfing in small conditions. Most of the points will be on the face and above the lip as Grumari isn’t a particularly hollow wave. It’s Brazil.
The forecast is predicting less-than-impressive conditions with very little swell coming through into the contest zone over the first few days. The word grovel-fest springs to mind. Is that one word? Hopefully we can see some lift in the long-range predictions.
Based on the forecast, the break and the surfers’ past results, here are our nominations for strong ‘conditions’ surfers for this event:
Filipe Toledo
Are you kidding? Reigning champ? Check. Small-wave maestro? Check. Top projected fantasy score? Check. New-school air game? Check. Is he fully healed from injury? Better check…
Gabriel Medina
We remember first seeing a young Medina take out the KotG contest in France a few years back. He had his small-wave air game down even then. Now he has a world title, an enviable contest focus and the second-highest projected fantasy total. Less than semis would be a woeful result for Gabe.
Adriano de Souza
Adriano knows how to work for a result; it’s kinda his thing. We think he’ll use his IOC snub re: carrying the Olympic torch as motivation and come out blazing. Jokes aside, Adriano has some decent projections and some past success. He’s a solid (read safe) conditions pick. 2016 hasn’t been about safe picks though, so there may be better value elsewhere…
Wiggolly Dantas
Wiggolly is just flying under the radar in 2016. Check these numbers though: highest AHS in small surf. 3rd highest AHS at this event. 3rd highest AHS for the season. Our projections are dragged down by some lower averages across 4-6’ conditions and beach breaks, but don’t let that deter you too strongly. Especially given the forecast.
Kanoa Igarashi
Did we just put Kanoa in as a token non-Brazilian? Judge for yourself: Kanoa will still have the struggles of sub-standard WQS waves fresh in his mind, conditions in which he excelled. Plus he weighs as much as Kai Otton’s next meal. If the waves are small, he could just prove to be a handy pick-up.
thanks to aspwedge for the graphic
Conditions Warnings
Adam Melling
We just can’t see him getting motivated, let alone throwing down some text book full-rote air-reverses. The projections tend to agree. Look elsewhere.
Dusty Payne
In our experience, Dusty just doesn’t step up to the plate when the conditions are poor. He doesn’t seem to be bothered. His AHS for this event is low, and his other significant averages for these conditions aren’t much better. With the rookies using their energy and enthusiasm to take down big names this year, we can’t see much upside in selecting Dusty.
Form
What’s form in 2016 anyway? Other than Wilko, nobody has consistently made it past the third round this year. Here’s how we see the situation:
Matt Wilkinson
Yeah, yeah; let’s just get him out of the way early. Despite the fact that NOBODY has seemingly spoken about Wilko in the surf media since R5 at Margies, he definitely deserves a look based on form. Micro knew how to grovel and we’re sure he’s been gearing up his golden boy for Brazil by getting him to ride boat wakes or other such pathetic waves in preparation.
John John Florence
Highest AHS for the season. We honestly believe that JJF will get at least one event title this season, and he’s already won here before. He has been getting to events early and showing the sort of drive (and form) that tell us he’s ready.
Italo Ferreira
How clutch has Italo been this year? He’s the only surfer to make the semis of the past 2 events and he’s looking great. We like Italo’s form in 2016 and think this could be a great contest for him.
Bino Lopes
Lopes just won the 1500 point WQS Praia do Forte Pro contest a little over a week ago. The conditions were virtually identical to those forecast and he will be licking his lips at a chance to take down some big names in challenging home conditions. Watch this space.
Form Warnings
Keanu and Ribeiro
Melling and Banting won a heat at the last contest, so that just leaves these two without success. There is massive form pressure weighing down on these two surfers, especially Ribeiro who is at his home event and winless on tour.
Odds 81:1 and 101:1 respectively
Kelly Slater
Will he really come? And if he does, where will his motivation be? Maybe he’ll just invite Mick, Taj and Parko (OK, maybe Kai too) over to the wave pool and really kick some (artificial) sand into the face of the WSL.
Heat Draw
While much less important when compared to conditions and form, the draw should still be a partial consideration. Having 3 surfers in a R1 heat, or even 2 surfers facing off in R2, is bad form. It should be noted that, because of the slightly complex WSL system of seeding, the fantasy tiers do not match the surfer’s seeding rank. Knowing ranks can help (but never guarantee) less chance of clashes down the track.
Sleeper Picks
We like to offer a few suggestions that may not be on everyone’s radar. Any success that involves deviating from the popular vote will provide a huge advantage for players willing to take the risk. Since the % owned feature has been removed from the WSL game and the FS numbers are invisible until lock-out, we are simply predicting who will be low in the popularity stakes.
Top
The ownership will be fairly well spread across the top surfers for this contest, but we can see Kolohe representing reasonably good value as a sleeper at this event. (15:1)
Mid
It’s tough to go past the likes of Filipe, Medina, JJF and ADS here, but Flores (26:1) has been working really hard this year and we can see good value for those wanting to avoid the high % picks. Wiggolly is another surfer who may be overlooked by the crowd.
Low
We’re looking at Ryan Callinan (101:1)to come out here in Brazil and show the world his small-wave air game. We can’t guarantee that he’ll have super-low ownership, but he’ll be lower than Slater. Lopes is another cheeky option for those wanting a true sleeper.
Teams
WSL surf-stats team
Parko would have been in this team, but that didn’t pan out. We’ve gone for a balance of ‘safe’ and risky selections here. *note – we just didn’t feel comfortable with Wilko in Tier A and traded him for Kolohe
WSL numbers team
Again Parko had to make way, this time for Jordy. The numbers like Leo in Tier B, and Freestone gets the nod over other lower-ranked Tier C options. *note – Kelly has been replaced by Jadson Andre
Fantasy Surfer surf-stats team
Cheapies Leo and Lopes gave us some serious Brazilian Storm spending money, with our team boasting Toledo, Medina AND Italo. We took a risk on Flores as well. *note Bino Lopes has been traded for Seabass due to a more favourable draw situation
Fantasy Surfer numbers team
Conner and Wiggolly get a look in here, as does Jordy in Parko’s absence.
The Outliers
When performing data analysis, you usually assume that your values cluster around some central data point, but sometimes a few of the values fall too far from the central point. These values are called outliers (they lay outside the expected range). Outliers can skew your statistical analyses, leading you to false or misleading conclusions about your data.
For each event in 2016, we will produce a list of ‘outliers’ that represent some kind of anomaly within our selection analyses. Maybe there are factors that a spreadsheet can’t detect, maybe all of the numbers point a god-awful result at this event, or maybe their recent form simply contradicts their previous averages.
Here are our outliers for Rio 2016:
Kelly Slater
We said no Kelly until Fiji. It paid off in WA.
Filipe Toledo
One injury tweak could prove decisive. Select with care.
Brazilians
They can’t all do well. The projections were particularly harsh on Ribeiro, Pupo, Alejo and even Andre.
Sebastian Zietz
We loved seeing Zietz win at the last event, but he won’t be able to rely on his arcing grab-rail hacks to win heats at this event. We will need to see some variation from the champ for him to keep that momentum.
The Fantasy Market
We like to have a little fun with our numbers from time-to-time, inventing betting odds for imaginary markets. Our latest analysis is: At Rio, Kelly Slater will…
1000–1. Win Olympic gold for the USA in race-walking.
250-1. Make the stunning announcement with IOC support that future Olympic surfing events will exclusively use his wave pool technology
20-1. Turn his form around and win his first contest since the 2013 Pipe Masters
12-1. Skip the event in favour of making wave pool videos
8-1. Rename his signature hair style “The Brazilian”
5-1. Ride some strange board and bomb out before the quarters again.
* this market has now closed. Please hand in any bets @ 12:1 to collect your winnings
Surf-stats Clubhouses
Now that you know the team break-downs, it’s time for you to create a team that will hold our selections to account. Sign up to our WSL Surf-Stats group (password – SS) or the Fantasy Surfer Surf-Stats clubhouse (password – SS) and challenge yourself against us and our readers. We will give a shout-out to each winner and analyse their team.
As always, feel free to comment or leave your team selections below.
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