How good is the European leg?

Sure, you have some of the most unpredictable conditions on offer, with 8’ kegs just as possible as Huntington-esque dribble. Sure, the time difference sucks for our US friends. Sure, the holding spells can suck the energy out of the event. But there are positives; there’s the consequences for the world title race – which is pretty tight this year – coupled with the qualification dramas for those on the cusp of the top 22. Add to that some serious QS points being thrown around, and the subsequent emerging qualifiers for the following year’s tour and you have a pretty interesting time. Throw in some beautiful scenery/waves/women/surfing and a decent event forecast and you’ve got a pretty epic few weeks. Europe is the first dip on that end-of-year roller-coaster and I for one can’t wait to see what it brings.

Let’s cut the merde, and get into it.

Conditions

As we mentioned above, France can be everything and anything regarding the types of waves on offer. Our projections for this event have taken in beach break conditions in both directions across all wave heights. It’s probably a good idea to tune into the forecast as the contest window approaches (the WSL forecast is still not available, so maybe look elsewhere) and make your selections accordingly. Another factor to consider is the massive tide shifts and the way in which the conditions can change considerably in a few hours; we strongly suggest surfers with patience, versatility and an ability to read the conditions well (experience won’t hurt either).

As far as a history of success goes, we’ve got 2 tables offering snapshots of surfers’ competition histories over the past 5 years. Check it out and see if your assumptions about the surfers on your team have any basis in reality. There were a few who surprised us…

Based on the forecast, the break features and the surfers’ past results at this event, here are our nominations for strong ‘conditions’ surfers for this event:

Gabriel Medina

My very first memory of the then up-and-coming Gabriel Medina was when he won the King of the Groms contest a number of years ago, putting on an absolute clinic in the small French beachies with a perfect 20 point heat in the final. We weren’t the least bit surprised to see him lead our overall projections for France, especially given his individual numbers: 1^st in EATP and 4-6’ conditions, 2^nd in 1-4’, 6-8’, and beachies, 3^rd in Left/Right conditions and 4^th in EAHS. Add to that his history here, and Medina is virtually a must-have for these conditions, regardless of the forecast.

John John Florence

John won Brazil in shifty beach-break conditions, remember? He also scores 2^nd in EATP and EAHS. Add to that his solid numbers in all sizes AND beach breaks and you have a contender.

Italo Ferreira

Italo has only done one year of the WCT leg in Europe, but it was a good year. He and Wiggolly were neck-and-neck for the ROTY honours after Trestles in 2016, but while Dantas picked up consecutive 25^ths in Europe (and Pipe, it should be noted), Ferreira collected a 5^th in France followed by a memorable 2^nd in Portugal. His numbers are pretty good for this event as well.

Miguel Pupo / Jadson Andre

Miguel has been patchy here with a consistent year-on-year-off pattern, but he has finished 5^th here twice and he’s due for an ON year in 2016 according to his pattern. Meanwhile, Jaddy has had a 2^nd and 9^th in his past two QuikPro events here in France, so he’s no slouch. Jadson has slightly better projections and a better result at the Cascais contest (R5), but it’s pretty close; we’re tipping one of these guys to do well enough to justify a place on your team.

Conditions Warnings

Matt Wilkinson

Wilko had two 9^ths in his last two contests here, but before that he was dropping dirty 25^ths like they were backside jams©. Matt’s projections aren’t great here either.

Ace Buchan

Ace won this event in 2008 AND he actually has the best AHS here over the past two years, so what we’re about to say is probably not worth shit, but Ace has not gone past R3 here since 2012. Your call.

Matt Banting

We don’t like to kick a guy when he’s down, but Banting has some pretty sorry numbers for this event. He has low left/right and beachbreak numbers historically, so that should be enough to warn you regardless of what we think.

Form

What’s French for ‘swag’? And how do the French translate the term ‘bag of suck’? A 12-second internet search suggests “butin” and “Sac de sucer” respectively, but don’t believe everything you read on the internet…

John John John Florence

I always thought that two Johns weren’t enough, especially after he nabbed the yellow jersey. I mean, if you’re going to overdo something, you may as well go to town. Maybe he could get a 3-digit number on his jersey as well, just to prove his dominance. Regardless, JJJF has been an improved competitor this year. He has the best career AHS over the past 3 seasons and the second-best for this season. The only person out-scoring him in 2016 is…

Gabriel Medina

Will he refocus after the Tannergate affair at Lowers? Will it motivate? Can he move on and go back to being the fast, loose, slightly taking-it-too-seriously guy who revels in the pressure, or will he be too distracted by clapping and gesturing to the judges tower? He’s certainly in the box seat to make a dash for the title through Europe.

Kelly Slater

Kelly is 5^th in the world, entering title conversations and enjoying a serious resurgence lately. Since Fiji he has looked reborn, which could have something to do with his infant-like hair style as much as his form. That said, his AHS for the past 4 events is 15.87 (compared to 12.42 for the first half of the season) so there’s no denying his growth post-Rio. Kelly held his own in the small stuff at Lowers and could yet have a thing or two to prove heading into Europe.

Jordy Smith

This time last year, Jordy was injured and staring at another year of unfulfilled potential. Could 2016 be the year for Jordy? We think not, but you can’t deny his improved form of late and the fact that his surfing is looking so good.

Form Warnings

Ryan Callinan

Ryan is now the lowest-ranked surfer on tour. We have vouched to never select him on a fantasy team again (unless the projections select him for the numbers team – we never deny the will of the numbers).

Jeremy Flores

What’s with Jeremy’s poor form lately? We honestly don’t think that hometown expectations can do anything but add to the already palpable pressure that is swelling around his 2016 campaign. He has actually been surfing well this year (with a better-than-Tier-C AHS of 13.46), and recently dropped a classy clip of French club-sandwich goodness at Hossegor, so hopefully he’ll prove us wrong.

*Update – Flores also just finished runner up at the 10,000 point QS event at Cascais, beating some quality opposition in changing/variable beachbreak conditions.

Adriano de Souza

Seriously, after two-straight 25^ths and a current ranking of 11^th in the world, how is ADS still the second-most-expensive in the Fantasy Surfer game? Surely he’s due for a drop? Even then, we won’t be selecting him; the judges are too busy making him pay for last year’s embarrassment.

Heat Draw

*updated

While much less important when compared to conditions and form, the draw should still be a partial consideration. Having 3 surfers in a R1 heat, or even 2 surfers facing off in R2, is generally bad form. If you want to play around with heat win and R2 possibilities, we recommend wslbracket.com as a fun way of predicting possible result match-ups. Be aware though that a single change from your projections can alter the following round entirely.

Our R1 heat of death for this contest is H7 Ace/Stu/Flores

Sleeper Picks

We like to offer a few suggestions that may not be on everyone’s radar. Any success that involves deviating from the popular vote will provide a huge advantage for players willing to take the risk. Since the % owned feature from the WSL and FS games are invisible until lock-out, we are simply predicting who we think will be low in the popularity stakes.

Top

Have you seen the top 10 lately? Slater and Joel have snuck up there with Jordy, JJJF and Medina to give fantasy players a serious headache. We’re going to back Italo to be the best ‘contrary’ option for the high-risk-low-percentage selector.

Mids

We think Pupo could be worth the risk, but then again we aren’t ranked that highly.

Low

It’s time for the real Kai Otton to stand up and be counted. If the forecast looks head high +, Kai could just be the darkhorse you need.

Teams

We’re only posting the numbers teams as an overview of our data projections. If you really want to beat our non-numbers team, join the clubhouse (it’s not that hard – in both cases).

WSL numbers team

*Update – the WSL game is finally live

Only one clash in H10, some very promising selections and no Rhino; we like this team.

Fantasy Surfer numbers team

How has Ryan Callinan snuck into this team again? Seriously, this team looks solid except for his presence. No Filipe or Julian, but you can’t have them all.

The Outliers

For each event in 2016, we will produce a list of ‘outliers’ that represent some kind of anomaly within our selection analyses. Maybe there are factors that a spreadsheet can’t detect, maybe all of the numbers point a god-awful result at this event, or maybe their recent form simply contradicts their previous averages.

Here are our outliers for France:

Matt Wilkinson

Wilko’s AHS for the past 4 events is 11.07, which – if it were compared with other tour surfers’ season AHS – places him between Matt Banting and Davey Cathels. His season AHS is slightly better at 12.10, but that puts him behind Kai Otton (12.14) and Jeremy Flores (a respectable 13.46), who are both in the bottom tier of the WSL game. For comparison, Slater’s AHS for the past 4 events is 15.87. This would put him as having the highest AHS if it was compared to the other surfers’ season AHS. Food for thought.

Wildcards

Leonardo Fioravanti and Joan Duru have been added to the draw. Both surfers’ details have been added to the updated projections tables here. Let’s look at them in a little more detail:

Joan has surfed this event 3 times: 2006 (R2 loss), 2008 (R1 win, R3 loss) and 2009 (R1 win, R3 loss). His AHS for this event is 11.35 and he knows the conditions. He will have a very low percentage of ownership and could represent an interesting ‘contrary’ pick for those who don’t mind risk.

Leo has already proven his ability on the WCT stage, and is actually seeded above Ryan Callinan for this event on the back of his 5th and 13th place results alone. This means that he will miss some of the big names in the later rounds (read JJF and Medina) if Ryan and Joan also make it through. His 1-4′ data is good (14.3 AHS – only one heat though), but his other stats aren’t particularly inspiring. Despite his Italian nationality, he is basically a French beachbreak local. He has already qualified for the 2017 tour and this event is just a bonus chance to hone his CT skills. He could be dangerous here.

Filipe Toledo / Michel Bourez

Both are anticipating the birth of their child(ren) and, with the shadow of long waiting periods in France, you can count on mild-distraction at the very least and a mid-contest exits at the most.

John John John John

There were a lot of hours dedicated to the state of John’s knee prior to Trestles. Is it all good now? We personally haven’t heard peep. He wasn’t that impressive in his loss at Lowers, but that was weeks ago…

The Wait

Motivation, focus, flexibility – these are the attributes needed to go far in the drawn-out tradition of the QuikPro France. Do your selections possess them?

Flores

We just don’t know what to think of Flores after the Cascais event. He could be feeling a little less pressure now that he has made his WQS qualification a lot easier, but his CT form this year has been hideous. Tough pick.

Surf-stats Clubhouses

Now that you know the team break-downs, it’s time for you to create a team that will hold our selections to account. Sign up to our WSL Surf-Stats group (password – SS) or the Fantasy Surfer Surf-Stats clubhouse (password – SS) and challenge yourself against us and our readers. We will give a shout-out to each winner and analyse their team.

As always, feel free to comment or leave your own team selections below.

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