Contest Analysis - JBay 2016
Last updated July 3, 2016 by Balyn McDonald
Wilko makes a statement, Slater finds some form, Mick returns to South African waters and it’s cold, so damned cold. Let’s pull in to JBay…
Conditions
There are a few key sections to the Jeffreys Bay point, described briefly by the WSL here and in greater detail by Shaun Tomson in 2015. The forecast will again be important, especially for ‘lighter’ surfers such as Igarashi and Toledo. Regardless of the conditions, J-Bay is renowned as a ‘tricky’ wave because of the tight barrel sections and difficulty in reading too far ahead; look for surfers with some experience where possible and check out Notes from the Line-up interview when it drops soon.
The official forecast hasn’t been provided yet, but there are some models indicating reasonably contestable conditions over the first few days. Obviously we will update our information closer to the 6th.
As far as a history of success goes, we’ve made up a new table on our sortable data page that shows the results of 14 surfers over the past 4 J-Bayevents. Check it out and see who has been the most consistent in these particular conditions over the past few years (bottom of page). We have also added the detailed results from R5 onwards in this event from 2010-2015 (courtesy of aspwedge.com).
Based on the forecast, the break details and the surfers’ past results, here are our nominations for strong ‘conditions’ surfers for this event:
Mick Fanning
Even with a forced 2nd place last year, Mick tops our data for this event, having the best average result over the past 4 years, the best EAHS and the best EATP. He also tops our data for points and rights, so he’s well-positioned in regards to the conditions. Obviously there is the fear/anxiety issue, but from a pure stats perspective Mick is a clear conditions favourite.
Jordy Smith
Jordy went back-to-back in 2010/11, showing just how well he can surf this wave. He lost in R3 in a poor heat against CJ in 2014, and he surfed injured last year, looking nothing like the Jordy we know and love at JBay. Numbers aside, a fit and healthy Jordy is always going to be in the conversation when it comes to this event – and he’s looked hungrier this year than he has in a while.
Gabriel Medina
Medina came up second (behind Mick) in our overall projections at this event. A closer look at the conditions stats has him at 2nd in the EATP, 5th in the EAHS, 3rd in points and 4th in 2016 AHS. Add to this the fact that he’s had two Quarters finishes in as many attempts at JBay, and Gabe starts looking like a pretty solid conditions option.
Alejo Muniz
Alejo is paying 101:1 to win here (the same as Ribeiro), which suggests that we’re taking liberties with this suggestion. The thing is, he doesn’t need to win to justify making your team. Alejo has finished a respectable 5th in all three appearances at this event, proving his consistency and experience. His EAHS is almost a full two points above his Overall AHS, making this seem like his pet event. We’re not sure if it counts for much, but he also won the Ballito event last year as well…
Conditions Warnings
Matt Wilkinson
Wilko, Wilko, Wilko. He is the ultimate outlier when it comes to our stats vs. his results this year. The reason he’s on our warning list for conditions isn’t because his numbers at this event are poor (they’re actually OK: 8th in EATP, 4th in EAHS, 11th in points and 16th in rights), but rather it’s because everyone seems to be saying that ‘Wilko does well at this event’. The truth is that, in his past 3 events here, he’s had two 13ths; he did well with a 3rd in 2014 (he was ripping, too), but it’s not a given that he does consistently well. That said, Wilko in 2016 is a different beast.
John John Florence
Does John John’s surfing suit the wave? Sure. He’s only competed here once though, and he got a 13th. His EATP and EAHS are both low. Not enough data on which to base many assumptions, but worth considering.
Filipe Toledo
He’s had two events here: one 13th and one 25th. He has the 3rd lowest EAHS and 4th lowest EATP. If it’s small, then he could be an option, but be wary.
Form
A shout out will go to the best allegory for surfers’ form in 2016…
Matt Wilkinson
Wilko’s back in the form conversation after breaking his mini-slump with a Fiji final. Wilko is the real deal this year and he’ll be backing himself for a big result here.
Gabriel Medina
Last event we said that Medina was building to something, and that he was going to be in the title frame at the end of the year. He’s now sitting at 2nd overall and looking very sharp indeed. Medina is so hot right now.
John John Florence
John John’s 5th round exit at Fiji may have surprised a few who were watching his earlier heats, but it was another solid result for him in 2016. JJF has the highest AHS in 2016, with an impressive 15.11 so far. John is looking hungry and focused…
Kelly Slater
Kelly was always going to look better at pumping Fiji, but the significance of the result was more a mental breakthrough for him than anything else. Slater’s 3rd at Fiji was his best result since, um…, since his 3rd place at JBay last year? Yeah that’s the one.
Form Warnings
Kai Otton
Kai is having his worst season on tour. He could be joining his good buddy Taj sooner rather than later if he can’t pull some results out of his backside soon (you see what we did there?). Ottz can certainly match it with the best at this event, but he’s going to need to shake off the memory of his first 5 events if he wants to requalify.
Alex Ribeiro
Ribeiro is like the metaphorical car crash that you just can’t look away from. We’re hardly providing insights by telling you that his form is poor, but we feel like we’d be cheating by not mentioning him here.
Heat Draw
While much less important when compared to conditions and form, the draw should still be a partial consideration. Having 3 surfers in a R1 heat, or even 2 surfers facing off in R2, is bad form. The seeding system is now based 100% on the 2016 rankings, making it much easier to estimate seedings and substitutions in the case of injury withdrawals.
If you want to play around with heat win and R2 possibilities, we recommend wslbracket.com as a fun way of predicting possible result match-ups. Be aware though that a single change from your projections can alter the following round entirely.
Here’s what happened when we put our projections through R1:
Sleeper Picks
We like to offer a few suggestions that may not be on everyone’s radar. Any success that involves deviating from the popular vote will provide a huge advantage for players willing to take the risk. Since the % owned feature has been removed from the WSL game and the FS numbers are invisible until lock-out, we are simply predicting who will be low in the popularity stakes.
Top
We think that Wilko, Medina and JJF (and possibly Adriano) will make up the bulk of the top selections, leaving Ace (26:1) as our Tier A sleeper for JBay. Ace has a reasonable record at this event and he’s coming off the back of a great Fiji result. Ace could be a handy POD.
Mids
Davey Cathels (51:1) has been on our radar for this event ever since we found out he was going to be on tour; he has a solid rail and power game and a knowledge of points that should serve him well. He won’t be on our WSL team, but we’re backing him in the Fantasy Surfer game.
Low
We’re not sure how many people actually follow our suggestions here, but we’re pretty confident that Alejo (101:1) will be under-selected at this event. Kelly, Kerr, Melling and Flores will probably get picked above him, but we think he’s a promising option.
Teams
WSL surf-stats team
Flores gets another chance through his Ballito form, as does Jack. Conner and Jordy are in for surfing style at this venue more so than recent stats (though Jordy has done well in the past). Kelly and Mick pick themselves. Adriano gets in for his heat strategy and tenacity, and Gabe because of red-hot form.
WSL numbers team
A very traditional/conservative selection. Could do well; could also be owned by 5000 other teams… (except Kai, we doubt many will select him)
Fantasy Surfer surf-stats team
Fantasy Surfer numbers team
Fairly conservative picks in Mick, Gabe, Slater and John John. Joel is included for his numbers despite his injury, Italo is in despite his recent form, and Stu and Jack get in despite having limited local event data. Not a bad mix though.
The Outliers
For each event in 2016, we will produce a list of ‘outliers’ that represent some kind of anomaly within our selection analyses. Maybe there are factors that a spreadsheet can’t detect, maybe all of the numbers point a god-awful result at this event, or maybe their recent form simply contradicts their previous averages.
Here are our outliers for JBay:
Joel Parkinson
We’ve heard nothing about his knee injury. If he’s 100%, then he’s a great option. If he’s injured, he’s Jordy 2015.
Matt Wilkinson
Wilko writes his own data this year. Go with your instincts on Wilko this year, not his numbers.
Rookies
As we mentioned at the top, JBay is a challenging wave for the inexperienced. Exercise caution with your rookie selections at this event in particular.
Kelly Slater
We want to believe that the King is back, but we’re more convinced that Fiji will prove to be the anomaly for him this season. Although, with a Tier C seeding Slater presents a relatively low risk. If he stumbles and you avoid him though, you’ll have a massive advantage on the rest of the field.
Surf-stats Clubhouses
Now that you know the team break-downs, it’s time for you to create a team that will hold our selections to account. Sign up to our WSL Surf-Stats group (password – SS) or the Fantasy Surfer Surf-Stats clubhouse (password – SS) and challenge yourself against us and our readers. We will give a shout-out to each winner and analyse their team.
As always, feel free to comment or leave your own team selections below.
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