We finally had some Heats!  After 8 long lay-days the 2015 Target Maui Pro got underway in exciting fashion.  The women of the CT put on a great show through R3,  here are some key notes and takeaways…

Updated Projections: Conlogue Drops to 3rd

Courtney Conlogue is now projected to take 3rd behind Carissa Moore and Sally Fitzgibbons,  likely due to her R3 falter.  Conlogue’s climb to the top now includes obstacles in Coco Ho (Conlogue beat in R1)  and Nikki Van Dijk (beat Conlogue in R3).  After winning their R3 Heats,  the other top seeds await relatively easier competition;  Moore will either face Malia Manuel or Tyler Wright while Fitzgibbons awaits Bianca Buitendag or Johanne Defay in the QF.  Alessa Quizon has been surfing tremendously so far,  but she’s heading into a difficult Quarter regardless,  squaring off against Lakey Peterson or Tatiana Weston-Webb.  Here’s the updated projections:

2015 Target Maui Pro Updated Projections (R3)

R1

Our Tier B LOCK Tyler Wright lost R1H1 with a 9.5 to Tatiana Weston-Webb’s 15.07.  Tati was very close to being a LOCK herself,  but the right-hand conditions slightly favored Wright.  The event’s not over by any means and both ladies still have life,  but we continue to be impressed with Tatiana’s backhand.

Carissa Moore locked in the highest Round score with a 16.73 and all three Tier A surfers advanced to R3.  Our Tier B Sleeper Johanne Defay skipped R2 as well with a 16.6 (+.1 over Courtney Conlogue),  delighting the 9% of fantasy teams she’s on.

Tier B and Tier C Traps Lakey Peterson (13.16) and Laura Enever (7.76) booked tickets to R2 while our second Tier B Sleeper Bianca Buitendag dropped the lowest Round score (2.2).

R2

Lakey Peterson gave 36% of teams a near heart-attack in R2H3,  trailing Wildcard Dax McGill and in need of a 7.2 with 2:30 on the clock.  Peterson delivered in dramatic fashion with an 8.73 near-buzzer-beater for the win.

Our Tier C LOCK Alessa Quizon posted the highest wave score (9.2) and Round score at 17.73 (+.53 over Tyler Wright’s 17.2) to end Silvana Lima’s 2015 season.  Quizon is the only surfer still alive in Tier C.

R3

Alessa Quizon continued her dominance with a 15.37,  leaving Tier B favorites Peterson and Wright in Combo-land until the final horn.

Quizzy joins Carissa Moore (14.93),  Nikki Van Dijk (14.1) and a helmet-free Sally Fitzgibbons (16.6) in the QF.  Courtney Conlogue,  now needing to win the event for a chance at the Title,  will first have to get through Coco Ho in R4H3 then Nikki Van Dijk in QFH3.

Facts and Figures: Through Three

Top 5 Event AHS:

1. Alessa Quizon……………….15.87
2. Carissa Moore…………….. 15.83
3. Sally Fitzgibbons…………..15.02
4. Courtney Conlogue………14.97
5. Johanne Defay……………..13.47

Top 5 Event FP:

1. Carissa Moore………………71.66
2. Sally Fitzgibbon……………70.04
3. Alessa Quizon………………67.6
4. Nikki Van Dijk……………..60.01
5. Courtney Conlogue………49.94

Byes:

• 1 x Bye:  Alessa Quizon (R4),  Courtney Conlogue (R2),  Johanne Defay (R2),  Malia Manuel (R2),  Tatiana Weston-Webb (R2),  Nikki Van Dijk (R4)
• 2 x Byes:  Sally Fitzgibbons,  Carissa Moore

Out (FP / AHS):

• Dimity Stoyle (18.24 / 9.12)
• Sage Erickson (25.06 / 12.53)
• Dax McGill (20.7 / 10.35)
• Keely Andrew (21.07 / 10.54)
• Laura Enever (14.29 / 7.15)
• Silvana Lima (25.47 / 12.74)

AHS / AFP by Tier:  A – (15.27 / 50.55)   B – (12.17 / 37.59)   C – (10.93 / 24.49)

AHS by Round:       R1 – 11.86           R2 – 13.39           R3 – 11.9

We’ll be back with more after the event,  looks like there will be a few lay-days and some potentially huge surf coming in for Thursday.  Stay tuned!