We feel like we didn’t get a lot of time to catch our breath between Trestles and Portugal – and we didn’t even leave home.  For the CT athletes,  this is crunch time.  LAX->LIS is a long trip,  jet lag will play a factor with such a short time to get settled and prepare.  With a capricious event location and ugly forecast,  versatility is going to be a major factor for fantasy selection.

If you’ve got the chops come play against us and other Surf-Stats readers at our WSL Women’s Fantasy Surfing group:  Surf-Stats Clubhouse (password:  fantasy ) – Beat our teams and be entered as a champion in our upcoming Hall of Fame section!

We’ve outlined some key strategies below to help you in both WSL Fantasy Surfing and Fantasy Surfer.  As of now Stephanie Gilmore is replaced by Pauline Ado and Teresa Bonvalot is in the wild card slot.  Let’s get to it because,  well,  time is ticking.  Onto the Outlooks…[xt_tab style=”xa-default” ][xt_item title=”WSL Fantasy Surfing Outlook” icon=”Select Icon—“]

Women’s WSL Fantasy Surfing Outlook:  Portugal

The Swatch Women’s Pro was very entertaining and a great watch from start to finish.  We saw everything from heartbreaks,  breakouts and Carissa Moore take the Gold Jersey back from Courtney Conlogue.  Sally Fitzgibbons disappointed us with a QF exit,  but keeps a solid hold on 3rd place in the rankings.

We had an average event for our last Outlook,  missing with Sally as our Tier A Lock.  We made up for that elsewhere,  though,  giving you Tier C Lock Nikki Van Dijk (13.79 AHS for 70.86 Pts)  and Tier C Sleeper Pick Dimity Stoyle (3rd tier ranked 13.79 AHS for 1st tier ranked 88.97 Pts – all at 2%  started!).  We won’t be shy with that one,  we nailed it with Dim as our sleeper pick.

Coming up is the Cascais Women’s Pro set in Carcavelos,  a region that features a few breaks to help maximize incoming conditions.  For the most part they are all similar – right or left/right beach breaks (a few point-break spots as well,  but on small days they will more closely resemble sand-bar in shape).  There may be some decent swell on the way for the first day of the event window,  but conditions stand to be messy.  According to Surfline,  “…moderate N shifting NNW/NW breezes are still expected and will likely keep conditions bumpy to semi choppy then.   There is some significant disagreement for winds on Sunday into Monday (27th-28th).  However at this point it looks like moderate northerly winds will impact the region.”  It looks like we’re in for some lay days.

Tier A

LOCK PICK:  Sally Fitzgibbons (14.27 Proj AHS for 92.21 Proj Pts / 15%  Start) – We’re giving our Lock Pick to Sally Fitz again,  even though she had a relatively disappointing event at Trestles.  She’s got the 2nd ranked Proj AHS and a 16 QSFW,  her start percentage is the lowest of the tier as well.   She also has a 14.65 career AHS in Portugal,  and though that’s second to Carissa Moore’s 14.71,  they are very close.  What we like for Fitz over Moore is versatility in smaller and choppier conditions – she’s got a better AHS in both areas at 14.21 in 1-4′ and 13.68 when the wind goes onshore (compared to Moore’s 14.05 and 13.27 respectively).  Even though Moore won the event in 2013,  she was forced into R4 after losing to Bianca Buitendag in 1-4′,  cross wind conditions.  Carissa also won in 2010,  but in 4-6′ surf and offshore winds throughout the event.  We definitely like Moore as an option,  but she’s on more 54%  of teams right now,  there’s much more to gain by stealing one with Sally – lock it up.

It’s A Trap!

Courtney Conlogue (13.16 Proj AHS for 89.38 Proj Pts / 18% Start) – 18% start is a tough one,  but with only 3 surfers in Tier A we’re making the call –  it’s a trap – fade Court for Carcavelos.  We know Courtney can do damage anywhere on tour,  but she’s had her struggles in Portugal.  She’s owns an above-average 13.26 career AHS here,  but a 2 QSFW just won’t cut it for Tier A.  Conlogue also has a 12.71 AHS when the winds go offshore;  this doesn’t surprise us as she is a tremendous power surfer,  but power surfing relies heavily on powerful waves.  We also can’t give her credit for being scrappy;   Courtney is determined,  no one would argue that,  but she struggles when milking points on faceless waves.  Fitz and Moore are the only two we would consider out of Tier A given the potential conditions.

Tier B

LOCK PICK:  Bianca Buitendag (11.06 Proj AHS for 70.27 / 14% Start) – We’ll admit,  this is not the most appetizing projection line in the world,  but we like Bianca in Portugal for a few reasons.  One,  her start percentage means she’ll pay out big if she finishes at the top of Tier B.  Two,  she’s been on absolute fire since Rio,  posting a 2nd place finish in 3 of the last 4 events (3rd place at worst).  Bianca has been cruising under the fantasy radar,  but it’s time to capitalize – there’s actually a chance she could be in Tier A by France (Sally Fitzgibbons would have to tank Cascais, finishing 13th and Bianca could pass her in the rankings with a 5th or better finish).  Stranger things have happened,  but we also like Bianca’s recent performance as the best on tour.  Over the last four events she’s posted the #1 QSFW at 24 – that beats out Fitzgibbons (23),  Conlogue (20)  and Carissa Moore (19)  and 3/4 of those events were beach breaks.  We told you we liked her for a reason.  Buitendag is tall,  but has the ability to squeeze points from smaller waves with a unique style reminiscent of Owen Wright;  she put that skill on display in the final rounds at Trestles and seems poised to keep fighting for her first win of 2015.  She’s too close now to ignore and at 14%,  it would seem that no one believes.  Well,  we believe – lock it.

Lakey Peterson (13.46 Proj AHS for 78.15 Proj Pts / 38% Start) – We didn’t give Lakey enough credit at Trestles and it stung,  so consider us finally convinced that she’s the real deal.  The only thing we’re on the fence about is that start percentage.  38%  is in the perfect range to deliver a big blow to the competition by fading the favorite.  The only problem is that she’s on track for a solid performance – let’s break it down:  Lakey doesn’t have the greatest Portugal AHS (her 12.27 is still respectably 6th-ranked) or an outstanding QSFW (just 1),  but what she does have is appeal in sloppy surf.  Peterson has a 14.62 AHS in onshore conditions (highest ranked overall) and leads Tier B in 1-4′  with 13.75.  She’s also undeniably on-point if you trust Rosie Hodge’s Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em (and after last event’s effort,  we’ll tip our cap,  Rosie).  If you’re looking to play it safe,  Lakey is a good bet,  but there’s greater reward elsewhere if things shape up differently.  We can’t fault you for drafting and wouldn’t call Peterson a Trap,  but if you go for it we definitely recommend diversifying your second pick with a higher risk/higher upside surfer.

#TrapQueen

Tatiana Weston-Webb (12.12 Proj AHS for 72.97 Pts / 23% Start) – Now that’s a huge start percentage for Tatiana.  She’s a Trap for the second event in a row and everyone is still taking the bait.  Webb has never competitively surfed Portugal,  only has an 11.72 AHS in 1-4′ waves and 11.52 AHS at beach breaks.  We completely understand that Tati is having a huge rookie season and will have a long,  successful career,  but she’s just not that great in the conditions we expect to see for PRT.  She won’t likely fare the worst in Tier B,  but she doesn’t have a great chance at top two – fade the two-time Trap Queen.

Sleeper:

Johanne Defay (11.47 Proj AHS for 64.44 Proj Pts / 8% Start) – Defay is a solid high risk/high reward pick for Tier B and we recommend her as a good pairing for the more heavily favored Peterson.  Having drawn Tyler Wright in R1,  there’s a serious possibility Defay jumps R2 for a good run and we like her chances.  Johanne has been red hot as of late as well,  right along with Bianca Buitendag.  Since Rio she’s posted the 5th ranked QSFW at 18,  right above Lakey’s 8 and at such a low start,  Defay is definitely worth a look.

Tier C

LOCK PICK:  Sage Erickson (12.06 Proj AHS for 59.04 Proj Pts / 14% Start) – Sage!  We finally like Sage Erickson as a Tier C Lock.  She’s trending towards success (finally breaking through the 13th-place wall at CT #7)  and is the only Tier C surfer projected for a 12+ AHS.  Drawing Sally Fitzgibbons in R1 might make it hard to advance,  but we rarely expect our lower tiers to upset.  Sage has all the tools to pull it off,  though,  posting a big 12.96 PRT career AHS,  3 QSFW and an AHS of 12.41 when the waves are <5′.  Easily the most upside at the C level,  definitely lock it in.  She’s got a lower start percentage than our big-time Trap fade as well.

It’s a Trap!

Laura Enever (10.4 Proj AHS for 51.93 Proj Pts / 22% Start) – What 22% are starting Laura Enever at Cascais?  Take a look at this line:She only breaks 11 once,  and even then just barely.  These numbers sum it all up for us,  plus she’s got a scorching Bianca Buitendag to deal with in R1.  If you’re among the teams starting Enever in Tier C,  we suggest you opt out of that club before Tuesday – Enever’s only placed better than 13th once this year,  a 5th place finish at Fiji that featured polar opposite conditions.

Sleeper:

Dimity Stoyle (10.74 Proj AHS for 54.79 Proj Pts / 7% Start) – We liked Stoyle for Trestles and we like her again for Portugal.  She’s coming in with one of the easiest R1 Draws (on paper)  at Tier C.  Tyler Wright will pose a threat if she shows up with any fire,  but we can’t expect that.  Stoles doesn’t have anything going for her other than a recent surge in ratings points,  huge momentum and a rush of confidence that we think may be her ticket to success.  If she can get anywhere near the QF,  Dim will be on our radar moving forward (as long as she stays in Tier C).

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Women’s Fantasy Surfer Outlook:  Portugal

The Cascais Women’s Pro came up fast and we don’t have a lot of time so let’s jump right into it.

Keep on Fadin’

Tatiana Weston-Webb ($5M / 135 Proj FS Pts) – Tatiana was a decent fade for Trestles,  she just barely broke value but there were better options in the same price range.  Her price tag didn’t drop,  but with choppier conditions on tap for Portugal, we still expect it to happen.  She’s totally inexperienced at this location,  only has an 11.52 AHS at beach breaks and as a goofy-footer she’ll struggle without a clean face on right-handers.  Keep fading until Hawaii,  where she is most likely to put on a dominant performance at a rock-bottom price.

Tyler Wright ($7.5M / 100 Proj FS Pts) – Wright fared slightly better than we expected at Trestles,  but even with a 15.00 event AHS she wasn’t able to break through the QF.  We’re still not convinced she’s back up to the same competitive level we know she is capable of and will fade until that changes.  Her career AHS in Portugal is a healthy 13.61,  which would definitely be worthwhile for consideration in the $5.5-6M range – but that’s not where Tyler is.  Inconsistent surf ahead for an inconsistent surfer,  not a great combination.

Value Spot Start

Pauline Ado ($1.5M / 75 Proj FS Pts) – The bottom of the barrel very rarely offers any viability even at such a low cost,  but sometimes you get lucky.  We like Pauline Ado for $1.5M because at this price,  R3 is a payoff.  She’s projected for 75 points which would lead the Pts/$ values at 5 – that’s huge.  Ado also enters the mix at a perfect time where you should be radically reshaping your team.  The European leg offers varied conditions and different surfers will fare better on average than those you’ve had until now (middle tier, that is – the top 4 will usually stay where they are).  But this means you can grab Pauline while using your budget for better talent now,  then drop her after the event without losing any sleep.  We’re locking her in for Portugal.

Sleeper Picks

Silvana Lima ($4M / 55 Proj FS Pts) – Silvana seems to have lost the ability to do anything right,  failing to lock in more that 100 FS Event Pts since CT #1.  Although she lost at Trestles,  we still saw a glimmer of hope.  It would have been tough to predict Lima would fall into the $4M range this season,  but she’s here nonetheless.  We like the value anyway because there’s choppy conditions on deck that might suit Silvana just fine.  She has a 12.49 AHS in 1-4′ waves and a 12.47 with offshore winds;  these are high percentile scores that suggest she’ll do better than our 55 Proj FS Pts.  There’s also the possibility of a nice ROI after Portugal heading into France – another event she could easily rebound with.  This is a rock-bottom price for Lima that you just have to take advantage of.

Coco Ho ($4.5M / 120 Proj FS Pts) – Coco Ho has dwindled down in price right alongside Silvana Lima.  She’s Lima+$.5M but has much more upside;  her projected points would land her at 5th ranked Pts/$ at 2.67 and we love any value north of 2.5.  Ho has been very successful in Portugal as well,  posting an 18 QSFW through a less than impressive career 11.65 AHS.  She’s not likely to win the event anymore (like she has in the past),  but there is a good chance she can reach and survive R3.  If she does,  the pick will at least have paid off for you.

Sage Erickson ($3.5  / 98 Proj FS Pts) – Sage has been putting together an overall poor year,  but she finally broke her ceiling at Trestles and might be able to break out of the slump.  At $3.5M she’s the lowest price of all the CT regulars and doesn’t have to do much for payoff.  We always recommend one or two high upside, low price starts to steal budget room elsewhere,  and for Cascais,  we like Sage.  With a Portugal career 12.96 AHS and respectable 3 QSFW,  she knows how to navigate this location for results – she’s a locked pickup in our book.

Too Pricey

Lakey Peterson ($8.5 / 190 Proj FS Pts) – We’re projecting Lakey to do pretty well at Portugal,  but there’s just too much risk still at the price point.  She’s obviously had a great past few events to get herself up in this range,  but now Peterson has to produce.  If you’ve had Lakey since CT #6,  congratulations and definitely hold on – but if you’re looking to pick her up now,  you’ve essentially missed the boat.  

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Hope that helps and good luck!  With the forecast conditions on tap,  who knows how the dust will settle.

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