Welcome back!  Our projections fared well in Tahiti,  with Jeremy Flores sailing to victory on the HMS Comeback.  Surf-Stats Tier B LOCK Gabriel Medina took second place while John John Florence succumbed to our outlined risks.  To be fair,  Florence did surf 100% physically,  but we’ll get to why he lost in depth.  California,  here we come – onto the Outlooks…

[tabby title=”WSL Men’s”]

Men’s WSL Fantasy Outlook

Injury Notes:

Matt Banting (Knee):  OUT (Replacement: Tomas Hermes)

6 September, 2015 – Matt Banting has officially withdrawn from the Hurley Pro Trestles.  We saw this one coming so it’s no shock;  Brazilian finesse-artist Tomas Hermes will surf in his stead.  We’ll slate him as Questionable for FRA,  but expect he’ll be back at some point for the European leg. 

Jordy Smith (Back):  OUT (Replacement: Aritz Aranburu)

Update:  7  September, 2015 – Let’s just say we’re not stunned – Jordy has officially withdrawn from the Hurley Pro Trestles.  It’s almost as if the more hype videos posted on Instagram and Twitter,  the more severe Smith’s injury.  We stand by our prediction that he might be out for the rest of the 2015 season,  but follow along with us on Twitter just in case there are breaking updates.

Previous:  5  September, 2015 – Smith recently stated in an interview with Australia’s Surfing Life  “I can’t go back into this until I am a hundred percent.  I can’t risk this again.  …I have to persevere and get back to one hundred percent before I come back.  It might take the rest of the year,  but it also might take a lot less.”  These are not words you want to hear if Jordy’s on your fantasy radar.  We suggested after his J-Bay exit that Smith might not return in 2015 – he’s out of World Title contention and a well-sourced rumor mill continues to rumble about his desire for some time off.  Don’t expect Jordy to suit up for Trestles,  but do expect a late withdrawal.  Without any current footage posted to social media,  we have to assume Smith has not yet returned to the water.

Tier A

LOCK:  Adriano De Souza (13.88 Proj AHS for 113.31 Proj Pts / 22%  Start) – As current #1 on the CT rankings,  de Souza will face bottom seeds throughout the event.  That’s a great reason to lock him in,  but let’s look at the situation in depth:  Adriano has a >13 AHS in waves 1-6’,  a 13.77 average for conditions Right+Point Break and a very respectable 14.57 Trestles AHS.  On the surface there are better options,  especially in Julian Wilson and Filipe Toledo,  but we will evaluate some concerns with those two.  Adriano is owned by only 22% of teams and with a projected score greater than Mick Fanning (112.13 Pts  /  41% Start),  he can easily assumes a standout value role.  With upside comes risk,  but it feels more bold than it is. 

Filipe Toledo (14.65 Proj AHS for 126.93 / 37% Start) – This is a big call and thus deserves a deep dive…

Trestles is Filipe’s house in more ways than one.  Literally speaking,  he lives in San Clemente;  figuratively,  he just dominated the Oakley Lowers Pro and has a career Trestles AHS of 15.35 (second only to Kelly Slater).  It’s tough to believe Filipe’s never advanced beyond R3 with an AHS that good,  but this is a different year for Toledo.  He has a mountain of confidence and now,  some very impressive victories to back it up.  We watched him win the QS Lowers Pro a few months ago and can tell you first-hand that he knows this break,  showing inherent ability to squeeze a massive score from any wave.  So what might deter you from Filipe Toledo?

Risk Factor:   Something…  

Something,  something,  something feels off.  Why did Toledo fare so poorly in Tahiti (even worse than we expected),  tapping the mat without a single surfed wave in R5?  There are two possibilities and outcomes:  1)  Toledo was lacking in confidence and second-guessed the one wave he should have had.  We rarely see him err on the side of not swinging,  and that’s a red flag in our book.  2)  Bad luck simply had him out of position for what Mother Nature provided and he will look to rebound at CT #8.  

For us, both options carry some level of risk.  If it is a confidence issue or something blocking the ol’ Qi,  we wouldn’t want anything to do with it.  Anything that psyches Filipe out of catching a single wave has to be considered serious.  If it was merely a tough-luck heat where Toledo is coming into Lowers fired up,  we consider that a slight risk,  too,  but would absolutely draft.  More likely than not,  he’ll put on a clinic with no shortage of big,  show-stopping airs.  When emotions run high, the slight risk is that he’ll make some mistakes, but he’s also guaranteed to catch and surf more waves than anyone out there – if Tahiti R5 was a fluke.

In 2015 alone Toledo has a 66.07% completion rate for airs.  That’s the best on tour and from the largest sample size;  he’s landed 37 out of 56 attempts this year.  Let that sink in – 56 attempted airs through just 7 events,  an average of 8 per competition.  To put that into perspective,  Gabriel Medina has the second highest completion rate at 60%,  but only 18 attempts.  John John Florence is 6/13 (46.15%)  and Julian Wilson is 8/16 (50%).  We know Toledo uses the air-game to his advantage,  but we hope that helps you quantify it more clearly.  He’s ridiculously active and the most successful at sticking high-scoring maneuvers.  The only reason Toledo’s not a LOCK is because of that Tahiti R5 – it just doesn’t sit right – but the upside is there and our projection model favors him to win Trestles.  Unfortunately,  so do 37% of teams and we’ll be one of them.

Julian Wilson (13.53 Proj AHS for 124.29 Proj Pts / 26% Start) – Julian is a favored candidate for Lowers,  showing proven success with a career 14.75 AHS and 10 QSFW.  The system gives him second place overall,  but we outlined some potential confidence risk heading into Tahiti that may have been warranted.  We expected a fair amount of shark-shock for Julian at Teahupo’o,  but with the rarity of shark encounters there it stood to be more easily overcome.  He bombed anyway – even with a R2 Bye he only put up a 10.08 event AHS.  Southern California is statistically much more “sharky” and there is definitely some level of concern.  Ultimately,  it’s your call.  It will be much different than conditions at Teahupo’o,  but he wasn’t expected to flop there and we didn’t like what we saw.

Jeremy Flores (13.23 Proj AHS for 106.42 Proj Pts / 1% Start) – Oh,  Jeremy.  Why did you have to go and ignite Tahiti?  Flores was slated to be a big Tier B recommendation and maybe even a LOCK.  His recent second-place performance at the Oakley Lowers Pro and a respectable 13.73 Trestles AHS had us sold.  After CT #7,  though,  he’s found a spot in the Elite Eight and landed in Tier A.  This makes him considerably less viable as you need Tier A to go the distance;  we think Flores can get to the QF,  but wouldn’t bank a top slot on it.  If you do take the chance you may be handsomely rewarded,  but if his 1% start holds you won’t lose much if you miss the unicorn.  Just don’t do it. 

It’s A Trap

Mick Fanning (14.65 Proj AHS for 112.13 Proj Pts / 41% Start) – Mick Fanning did not look sharp at Tahiti – and that’s putting it politely.  Just like with Julian Wilson,  we outlined some confidence and mental concerns that may have proved realistic.  Eerily similar to Wilson,  Mick won R1 with a low score and lost in R3 to finish with a low event AHS of 9.42.  Bad luck heat?  Maybe.  All we can say is there is some risk – it may not be much,  but when you factor in a 41% start we won’t be taking the bait.  Mick will have to prove he’s not in a funk before we bring him back in for consideration.

Kelly Slater (15.75 Proj AHS for 93.66 Proj Pts / 27% Start) – We can’t really call Slater a true Trap because his start percentage is bell-curve sandwich meat.  What we can say is that it’s best to avoid him for Trestles,  even with a semi-comeback performance at TAH.  Yes,  he had a great event and needed it,  but the conditions we saw at ‘Chopes this year were tricky and uncharacteristic.  When that happens,  experience becomes a dominant factor and Kelly has easily surfed that break more than anyone on tour.  He outfoxed opponents with wave knowledge and even executing at 70%,  Slater is still one of the best at positioning himself for points.  There will be far greater risk at Lowers;  Kelly can no longer match the panache of young guns and high flyers. 

Tier B:

LOCK:  Italo Ferreira (13.09 Proj AHS for 91.79 Proj Pts / 20% Start) – John John Florence and Gabriel Medina are going to see a start percentage spike for Trestles because they made big headlines in Teahupo’o R3.  We’ll analyze that in a bit,  as either could have easily been a Tier B Lock.  The separating factor for us here is start percentage.  20% for Italo is a slap in the face;  we suggested him as a Sleeper for Tahiti and he dropped some jaws.  Anyone who counted his Fiji performance as a fluke can quit doubting now – Ferreira is a legitimate,  well-rounded surfer with promising successes already in his rookie year.  He’ll head to California with a boost in confidence, a what-just-happened win over Filipe Toledo and more upside than you can shake a stick at.  The conditions at Lowers are tailored to Italo’s style and he could easily hone in a break-out performance.  Low risk, high upside, easy pickup – Lock it. 

Gabriel Medina (13.38 Proj AHS for 107.68 Proj Pts / 71% Start) – Medina heads to Trestles as the highest drafted surfer overall.  Not bad for our previous Tier B Lock,  thanks Gabby.  Gabriel is projected for a solid event and his career 14.33 Trestles AHS will back that.  Start percentage is obviously something to consider,  but keeping Medina on the shelf puts your team in risky waters;  he can – and probably will – cruise into the Quarters or better.  You have to hedge this one a bit, and we suggest doing so by way of draft.  If Gabriel exits early and you’re wrong,  so are 71% of teams.  That is a much more preferable outcome than fading and having him outscore replacement – which is much more probable.  This party wave is a mathematical must. 

John John Florence (14.47 Proj AHS for 113.37 Proj Pts / 46% Start) – John John is considered a top candidate to win Trestles.  Obviously he has the talent to do so and he looks 100% healthy.  We provided some risk considerations for Tahiti,  and the factor we think hit hardest was distraction.  During his injury time off,  Florence had been filming,  editing,  promoting and networking for the release of his film View From a Blue Moon.  That’s still where his head seemed to be upon returning to the CT.  He’s a tremendously gifted surfer,  but it has always come relatively easy for JJF.  What we saw in Tahiti R3 was a more prepared,  competitive,  clinical,  cunning and hungry Gabriel Medina take the food right off his plate.  John John didn’t lay down and die,  of course,  but it was obvious to anyone watching that Medina wanted it more.  Kevin Durant once said “Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard,” and Medina’s got the talent,  too.  It’s risky to fade Florence for Trestles at 46% started,  and Tier B is deep enough that you might not need to.  Have your cake and eat it,  too,  but stay cautious.

 Its A Trap

Joel Parkinson (14.99 Proj AHS for 106.87 Proj Pts / 39% Start) – Parko has had an amazing career at Lowers:  14.99 AHS and 25 QSFW.  That’s a big part of why our model loves him;  but our model loves the Joel Parkinson of old.  2015 hasn’t been his year.  It started off ugly in Australia and hasn’t gotten much better since.  Joel has been vocal that his drive has diminished since winning a World Title and it’s showing as time catches up.  He’s not old for a human,  but at 34 he’s losing the energetic edge that a new generation has in spades.  This season can already be chalked up as one of his worst and will likely be marked as the start of decline.  We won’t get behind Parko as a Tier B option for the rest of the year. 

Sleepers

Taj Burrow (14.45 Proj AHS for 112.77 Pts / 5% Start) – Hard to believe former event Champ Taj Burrow is considered a sleeper pick,  but at 5% started that’s right where he is.  We get that most teams are salivating over Medina and Florence,  but even if you grabbed them both there’s still two remaining slots.  It’s a mystery to us why Joel Parkinson is so heavily favored instead – Taj has a 3rd ranked career 15.03 AHS at Lowers,  30 QSFW and is the higher seed.  Is it the baby on the way?  This is Burrow’s last event before taking a tour break,  but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll tank.  Trestles is a fun-park for surfers like Taj,  we expect him to have a solid event and at the very least outscore Parko. 

Bede Durbidge (13.12 Proj AHS for 101.49 Proj Pts / 8% Start) – Even Bede Durbidge is making it onto more teams that Taj Burrow.  He’s worth a look at Trestles where a sub-median 13.26 AHS has earned him a 28 QSFW (very close to TB).  Bede is coming of a string of 13th place finishes,  but he went toe-to-toe with Brazil this year taking second at Rio.  With an event on deck that will be similar in some key ways,  Durbidge could exceed value even for Tier B.

Tier C

LOCK:  Miguel Pupo (12.64 Proj AHS for 83.74 Proj Pts / 11% Start) – There is no better value pick in Tier C than Miguel Pupo.  He thrives in these conditions and pound-for-pound can exchange fire with anyone down here.  At 11% started,  Miggy has tremendous upside,  he just has to outscore some of the C headliners – and we think he can. 

LOCK:  Michel Bourez (12.51 Proj AHS for 90.34 Proj Pts / 21% Start) – That’s right,  a second Lock Pick.  Michel Bourez has to be on your team for Trestles,  he’s the only Tier C member with a QSFW of 4 and his Trestles AHS is healthy at 14.84 (better than Mick Fanning, for scope).  We were right on the money about Bourez’s Trap status for Tahiti – he proved to be just that – but there was no track record to suggest he should have fared better.  He’s got a solid projection lined up for Lowers and alongside Pupo,  your Tier C will have a great combination of medium risk with high potential reward.

It’s A Trap

Kolohe Andino (12.62 Proj AHS for 94.2 Proj Pts / 30% Start) – Kolohe Andino represents a classic Trap.  Tier-high 30% started,  good projected score but poor projected AHS.  Kolohe has been awful this season (sorry,  Brother);  after knocking on the Top 10’s door last year we are all disappointed to find him hopelessly in 31st.  This should have been his break-out campaign,  but instead he hasn’t been able to finish better than 13th through 7 stops.  Could Lowers be a bounce-back event?  Of course,  there’s no shortage of factors you could talk yourself into,  but the same is true for Kolohe at any location.  He has to at least jostle this current pattern before we try and catch lightning in a bottle.  We’ll fade this time and get better value elsewhere. 

That’s all for Tier C,  we see no one else that stands out or isn’t a waste of time to advise against.

We’ll bolster the Outlook with Heat Draws closer to the event window, in our experience there’s no use in doing it early.  At this point, we do expect a withdrawal from Jordy Smith and we’re still waiting on Banting’s replacement – stay tuned. 

[tabby title=”WSL Women’s”]

Women’s WSL Fantasy Outlook

Quick update on something you may want to get involved in:  We started a private clubhouse on WSL Fantasy Surfing for our members.  We are hoping to get as many teams as possible and will be able to offer prizes in the future if we do!  The password for both the Men’s and Women’s groups is “fantasy” (easy enough).  Come on in and show us what you’ve got!

In the midst of updating the Surf-Stats site,  we were unable to bring you an Outlook for the Women’s Vans US Open of Surfing.  That’s a real shame because we had Johanne Defay and Sally Fitzgibbons as LOCK picks.  Can’t win them all,  though,  and now onto the Outlook…

Injury Notes:

Stephanie Gilmore (Knee):  PROBABLE 

Steph Gilmore seems to be a full go for the Swatch Women’s Pro at Trestles this week.  We’ll jump into handling that in the Outlook;  she hasn’t surfed an event since Margaret River so risk might be an understatement.  We also haven’t heard anything from Gilmore herself on the issue and while a withdrawal remains unlikely,  keep an ear to the ground. 

Tier A

LOCK:  Sally Fitzgibbons (15.08 Proj AHS for 112.02 Proj Pts / 14% Start) – Sally’s got the lowest start percentage in Tier A.  Maybe that’s due in part to Rosie Hodge’s WSL Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em recommendation,  one we’ll have to respectfully disagree with.  Fitz is coming off a second-place Vans US Open finish right up the road where she posted an event 13.58 AHS for 101.45 Pts.  She has the #1 career Trestles AHS at 15.76 and her 7 QSFW is second only to Stephanie Gilmore.  Let’s quickly compare that to Rosie’s Tier A Start ‘Em,  Carissa Moore: Vans US Open event AHS of 13.98 for 75.93 Pts,  Trestles career AHS of 14.17 with a 3 QSFW.  Looks like Sally wins that battle – Lock it in.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium – Fitzgibbons has drawn old clash-mate Stephanie Gilmore in R1,  but Gilmore (knee) has missed four events in as many months.  If Sally finds herself in R2 we’ll be very surprised.

Courtney Conlogue (12.09 Proj AHS for 94.42 Proj Pts / 17% Start) – Conlogue has a slightly higher start percentage than Sally Fitz,  though she’s projected to fare much worse at Lowers.  Courtney’s Trestles AHS is a cold brick at 10.15 and a 0 QSFW won’t help her cause.  Up the coast at the US Open last month she put up a 13.03 event AHS (ranked last in Tier A) for 85.36 Pts.  The only thing that seemed to save her was being the top seed heading in – even with a better AHS,  Carissa Moore couldn’t break through the SF where Courtney tapped out.  Seems like it should have been a Trap,  but at 17%, no one is getting fooled anyway.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium – Court has Silvana Lima in R1 H4,  and there’s always the risk of her stealing the show with one big maneuver.  That risk seems to be fading,  but Trestles can offer a lot of ramp opportunity.   Don’t expect it,  but don’t be shocked if Lima drops an upset.

One more quick note on why we like Sally:  Out of the three muskeTiermates (have a feeling that one’s not going to stick), Sally is the only one who made QF or better last year – Conlogue dropped in R2 and Carissa fell in R4.  Sally took 2nd place.  So add that to the list.

Tier B

LOCK:  Malia Manuel (13.12 Proj AHS for 82.21 Proj Pts / 12% Start) – Malia Manuel had a phenomenal Vans US Open,  posting the top event AHS at 14.96 for 84.87 Pts through the QF.  In other words,  she semi-smoked Lakey Peterson (14.06 AHS for 76.24 event Pts through the QF also).  Very comparable performances,  but ultimately Malia surfed better.  So it’s up to you,  but we’d rather have Manuel at 12% started over Lakey at 34%.  This is really a personal decision to fade Peterson – as you could argue from a career Lowers AHS standpoint that Lakey’s 14.83 trumps Malia’s 13.73,  but there are a lot of similarities.  We like the lower risk/better ROI aspect of 12% started over a nearly identical surfer at 34% started;  statistically speaking,  you should too.  If this is too bullish for your LOCK palette,  we won’t blame you for jumping on The Good Ship Lakey.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium – We just went over the projection and historic performance parity between Manuel and Lakey Peterson;  this one’s really a toss-up.

It’s A Trap

Tatiana Weston-Webb (12.87 Proj AHS for 86.14 Proj Pts / 25% Start) – Tatiana has been absolutely ripping this season and we understand why her stock is hot,  but we’re bearish on this draft because of the Trestles surf-scape.  Tati’s only putting up an 11.88 AHS in 4-6′ conditions and it looks like that’s what she’ll be surfing.  She hasn’t competed here and that’s never a good sign either.  West only put up an 11.78 event AHS at the Vans US Open in 1-4′ average conditions,  which makes us feel comfortable keeping her sidelined in smaller waves.  Tatiana has a cool confidence that’s becoming trademark,  even in her young career – she comes to win and stands her ground without a bombastic attitude.  We love that about TatiWest,  but it won’t help her win Trestles.  #TrapQueen,  fade it.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium-Favorable – Webb will battle Alessa Quizon and potential upset material Bianca Buitendag (13.29 Proj AHS for 76.94 Proj Pts) in R1.  Buitendag somehow managed a SF berth/exit at last month’s US Open with a putrid 10.57 event AHS for 63.42 Pts.  That AHS was worse than Laura Enever and still Bianca made it to the Semi’s;  we think it’s more of a paper threat.  Quizon could surprise us,  though.

Sleepers

Coco Ho (13.87 Proj AHS for 95.66 Proj Pts / 18% Start) – Coco Ho has a career 15.31 AHS at Trestles,  solid projections and a 14.03 event AHS at the recent US Open to back it up.  If you’re fading Carissa Moore,  we suggest drafting Ho;  she has a solid chance at a R1 upset.  Coco owns a 13.43 Point Break AHS and a 12.34 AHS in 1-4′ surf, a good foundation for an unexpected performance.  It’s bullish,  but that’s what the Sleeper is all about – and she’s only coming in at Carissa Moore’s Proj Pts -2.92.  That’s not a huge difference for their CT disparity.  Ho made the SF last year too,  while Moore fell in R4.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium-Unfavorable – Generally speaking,  it’s never good to draw Carissa Moore.  Based on Proj AHS,  Ho is going to have her work cut out in R1.

Johanne Defay (12.32 Proj AHS for 68.61 Proj Pts / 6% Start) – We expected Johanne Defay to have a much better start rate for Trestles after winning CT #6 up the beach (where she put up the #2 event AHS of 14.44).  We see no reason that Defay can’t do damage again,  especially as a higher seed.  Of course this comes with some risk,  Sleepers always do,  but let’s take a look.  Defay won the US Open in sub-par conditions where chance plays a much bigger part;  it will be more difficult for her if everyone can get a fair crack at sets.  Beyond that,  she didn’t make the Quarters last year,  so this one’s a tough call.  It will come down to how much risk you’ve hedged elsewhere:  if you need all your standout from one surfer,  give Johanne a look.  HEAT DRAW:  Favorable – We can’t say which Tyler Wright will show up for Lowers,  but if it’s anything like the one of late,  Defay could sleep-surf her way to R3.  Keep an eye out for Nikki Van Dijk,  though,  she’s scrapping near the cutoff and isn’t used to having her back against the wall.

Stephanie Gilmore (14.85 Proj AHS for 119.66 Proj Pts / 19% Start) – This is the highest risk/highest upside candidate at the Swatch Women’s Pro.  Our model projects Stephanie Gilmore to win the event,  but she hasn’t surfed competitively since April (or at all since then, for the most part).  There is so much uncertainty here that it’s a 50/50 coin-toss.  Steph’s got Trestles QSFW in spades at 15, and a top 5 Lowers AHS of 15.16.  If you think her knee and form are back at 100% then go for it,  but it’s too much of a dice roll for us.  There are more viable options in Tier B.

Tier C

LOCK:  (Without Defay)  Nikki Van Dijk (11.03 Proj AHS for 76.12 Proj Pts / 32% Start) – If you don’t pick up Johanne Defay (we wouldn’t blame you),  Nikki Van Dijk would have the most appeal.  We say “most appeal”  because we’re honestly not that stoked about her.  She’s got the absolute worst Trestles career AHS of 9.9 (for you math nerds,  that’s <10).  Not good.  There is an upside here, though:  Van Dijk put up a solid 13.34 AHS through QF campaign at Huntington Beach last event,  which effectively bolstered her shaky spot on the CT.  Nikki may have felt some pressure and saw performance results – so there is a chance we could see something similar.  Hope for that anyway,  since there’s not much else in Tier C.

LOCK:  (With Defay)  Alessa Quizon (11.33 Proj AHS for 63.73 Proj Pts / 14% Start) – It’s hard to look at the numbers and call for Quizon over Sage Erickson, especially given her last QS, but there’s something we never liked about Erickson at the CT level.  Probably the fact that she’s never really produced – sort of the women’s Kolohe Andino this year – a QS animal that can’t bring it to the big show.  At CT #6,  we gave her one last chance and she disappointed with a 12.32 AHS for 24.63 Pts.  Pepper in a tough Lowers R1 and we’re fading Sage.  That really only leaves us one choice – Alessa Quizon,  our first LOCK-by-default.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium – The projections show hierarchy,  but Buitendag and Tatiana Weston-Webb will be right on the level with Quizon if forecasts hold up.  We’re always hopeful for a Quizzy upset – when we draft her,  anyway.

Sleeper

Dimity Stoyle (13.02 Proj AHS for 65.77 Proj Pts / 3% Start) – Before you jump out of your seat for this one,  let us talk you into Dimity Stoyle.  She’s got a bad reputation right now,  understandable.  She also had a terrible US Open (two-rounds-and-out for 18.03 Pts and a 9.02 AHS).  So what does Stoyle have going her way?  A 14.67  Trestles career AHS,  the only Tier C Proj AHS >12 (would have been 11.5 if not for Bethany Hamilton) at 13.02 and she’s really all we have left to recommend besides Laura Enever.  Honestly,  just fade Erickson and roll the dice somewhere – this is a tough Tier C.  HEAT DRAW:  Horrible – On paper, this might be the worst heat draw of all time.  Dimity is up against two larger-than-life legends in Sally Fitzgibbons and Stephanie Gilmore.  Between the two of them,  they own 70.97% of the Trestles QSFW market share.  So you’re saying there’s a chance…

[tabby title=”Fantasy Surfer Men’s”]

Men’s Fantasy Surfer Outlook

Let’s start the Trestles Outlook with a brief recap at how we did for you in Tahiti.  In short:  Awesome.  Here’s a quick breakdown of our advice and how it fared with each surfer’s Teahupo’o event AHS,  FS Pts and actual Points/$ value.

Recommendations:

• Jeremy Flores (15.91 AHS,  250 Pts,  6.67 PPD)
• Gabriel Medina (16.3 AHS,  175 Pts,  1.75 PPD)
• Italo Ferreira (13.66 AHS,  128 Pts,  2.33 PPD)
• Wiggolly Dantas (11.93 AHS,  102 Pts,  1.85 PPD)
• Kai Otton (11.05 AHS,  125 Pts,  2.00 PPD)

Average PPD:  2.92 (!) You’re welcome!

We also advised against the following big names:

• Mick Fanning (9.42 AHS,  75 Pts,  0.61 PPD)
• Michel Bourez (6.52 AHS,  41 Pts,  0.62 PPD)
• Adriano De Souza (11.75 AHS,  83 Pts,  0.83 PPD)

Average PPD:  0.69 (!)  You’re welcome again!

To be fair here,  we definitely missed by recommending Nat Young (10.9 AHS, 47 Pts, 0.59 PPD) over Kelly Slater (15.36 AHS, 127 Pts, 1.21 PPD),  but more than made up for it with the rest of the Tahiti analysis.  Now that our horn’s nice and tooted,  let’s get busy with a different animal – Trestles.

Coming up is a string of Point/Beach-breaking,  Right/Left-handing,  1-6′-ranging,  morning-glassing/afternoon-chopping events.  You want versatility,  a good Beach break AHS,  air talent and low RLD.  With the Pipe Masters – the final big/left/reef/barrel event remaining – way out in December (and Supertubos beforehand),  you can lock in some guys you think will have a good stretch at Trestles,  France and Portugal.  Scratch Owen Wright immediately.  Now onto the Outlook…

Let it Go

Owen Wright ($9.5M / 79 Proj FS Pts) – Owen is the first guy you should drop like an iPhone in the morning toilet (been there) heading into Trestles.  There are a few guys we think will likely overtake him in the ratings through CT #9 and unless you picked him up back in Australia,  he’s gone.  Just do it.  We know the projections are giving him a 13.29 Proj AHS,  but he’ll need a QF to return for his price – the probability just isn’t there for us.

Mick Fanning ($11.75M / 126 Proj FS Pts) – Fade,  fade,  fade.  If you aren’t second-guessing Mick after Tahiti then go marry him,  because you’re blinded by love.  We’re putting him and Julian Wilson in Fantasy Time-Out until they prove they’re not mentally jostled by the shark encounter.  Julian has way more upside at Trestles so we’re keeping him in the loop,  but Mick just doesn’t have the best style for Lowers anymore.  He’s had success in the past (28 QSFW) so don’t get us wrong, it’s just that the game is changing.  Fanning doesn’t have much in his aerial arsenal and lurking below are guys like Italo Ferreira,  Filipe Toledo,  John John Florence and Gabriel Medina.  Sure,  Fanno grinds it out and knows how to extract points,  but we’d argue in smaller conditions that Adriano De Souza does it better.  Even if Fanning comes back and wins a Title this year,  he will start to decline along with Joel Parkinson and Kelly Slater.  There’s simply a new generation replacing the old.

Keepers

Jeremy Flores ($4.75M / 100 Proj FS Pts) – If you had any doubts about Jeremy’s health and form (and we definitely did),  tuck them in,  turn out the light and put them to bed.  Flores didn’t just return and prove he’s back to normal,  he blitzed Tahiti and looks even better than before.  We’re very excited to see if that spark will continue at Lowers,  maybe the head injury flipped an inner-switch and he’s using 110% of his brainpower.  If you’ve ever seen the movie Rookie of the Year starring Thomas Ian Nicholas,  you know that this is not just possible,  but probable.

Jeremy just took second place against Filipe Toledo at the Oakley Lowers Pro QS a few weeks ago,  so he has both recent experience and success here. A 13.23 Proj AHS helps his cause and right now you can still pick him up at a rock bottom price (Pts/$ is still >2).  When is the last time the winner of a previous event came out at <$5M?  Probably never this late in the season.  Hopefully,  you drafted him at our last Outlook for $3.75M,  but if not,  grab him quick before his stock goes up through Pipe – he’ll finish the year strong.

Gabriel Medina ($11M / 103 Proj FS Pts) – If you had him before Tahiti or picked him up for $10M prior – great move.  That will probably still give you a solid return through November.  The market for Medina just jumped and $11M is toying with the threshold.  We would feel uncomfortable recommending him here based on price alone,  but if you have Mick or Kelly,  swap at least one of them for Gabriel now before he’s more valuable.  $11M may still be buying low for Medina in this stretch of events.

John John Florence ($7.25M / 151 Proj FS Pts) – BUY! BUY! BUY!  Florence is healthy, surfing tremendously and loves the Lowers/France/Supertubes/Pipe final stretch.  Name one of those events he can’t take?  50% of his CT wins have come in France (granted,  only 1/2),  but his other win was in Rio.  We know he’s one of the most gifted barrel navigators on the planet,  but as good as he surfs those locations,  he cannot seem to win one.  It will happen,  and it could be Pipe this year,  but most important right now is locking him in at $7.25M (if he’s not on your team already).  Florence is probably the surfer we’re most bullish on besides Jeremy Flores.  Lock him in.

Filipe Toledo ($7.75M / 250 Proj FS Pts) – For close to the same price as John John Florence,  you can also have Filipe Toledo,  who offers more upside for all upcoming events except Pipe. If that happens,  you can just swap him out because it’s the end of the season – not a ton of risk.  He’s projected to win Lowers and that would put him at 3.23 Pts/$ – can’t argue with that.

By the way,  what was that R5 against Italo in Tahiti?  Feel free to chime in the comments with your thoughts.  Very,  very odd and definitely something to think about.  Discuss.

We’re glad it happened because his price didn’t go up.  We would have preferred it to drop,  but hey,  can’t win them all.  We have some killer Toledo stats-driven insight over at the WSL Men’s Outlook – check it out even if you don’t play there,  it’s worth the read.

Wakers:

For lack of a better term,  these are our previous sleepers who have,  well,  woken up if we have to continue the analogy.  And for some reason we feel very obligated to do so.  Here are the Wakers…

Italo Ferreira ($6M / 81 Proj FS Pts) – Italo was one of our best picks for Tahiti.  We were high-fiving things that weren’t even people when he won R5,  finishing at 2.33 Pts/$ for a huge ROI.  Only 7% of teams started Italo for Teahupo’o and that’s a truer mark of a deep-sleep candidate.  He’s now a Waker because unless something drastically changes,  he’ll have a spot on our team for the rest of the season.  We’d love to see a boost in stock immediately,  starting with Trestles,  and think there is a great chance for him to do well.

We were also high fiving for our Kai Otton sleeper pick.  He came back huge for us as well with 125 FS Pts and 2.00 Pts/$.  Only 18% of teams gave Kai the nod,  but that’s still a touch high for a true sleeper;  coming in at $6.25M gave him less ROI than Ferreira,  too,  even with the small 3 FS Pt margin.  Kai doesn’t need to stick around,  but Italo’s a keeper moving forward.

Quick Notes:

Taj Burrow ($7.5M / 128 Proj FS Pts) – We would have included Taj in the drop-it-like-it’s-hot section,  but there’s at least something here to consider for Lowers.  He’s got a big-time 30 QSFW,  15.03 career AHS at Trestles,  crushes right-handers with a 14.29 AHS (he’s right there for point breaks,  too),  and our model gives him a 14.45 Proj AHS.  There’s so very much to like about Taj here.  Even if you picked him up earlier in the season,  it probably wasn’t for a price this low,  but for us,  it’s just not enough.  He’s +$.25M over John John and that’s our biggest issue.  Second,  he’s not going to be around for the two events following Lowers.  He’s out for consideration in our book,  but you may have wanted to take a second look;  the stats project a solid event for our favorite pre-dad.

[tabby title=”Fantasy Surfer Women’s”]

Women’s Fantasy Surfer Outlook

We were on hiatus for the Women’s US Open of Surfing for site maintenance,  but it’s full steam ahead for the Swatch Women’s Pro at Trestles.  Looks like the gang’s back together with Stephanie Gilmore returning to competition,  but we’ll have to analyze that situation – she’s been out of the water for the better part of four months and hasn’t surfed competitively since Margaret River.  That’s not a good thing,  but she is the the defending Champ and would still be competitive at 75% health.  Let’s dive in,  it sure has been a while on the Women’s side.  Onto the Outlook…

50 Shades of Fade

Tatiana Weston-Webb ($5M / 103 Proj FS Pts) – Don’t get us wrong,  we love Tatiana;  she’s surfing well beyond her years,  competing effectively and strategically.  The talent is there,  but those intangible qualities are rare,  especially in such a young career.  Expect Tati to be a mainstay here on the CT,  but not on your team for the next three events.  Lowers,  Portugal and France are big fades for us even though we’re big fans.  She might have a solid finish at Trestles,  but with a 12.87 Proj AHS,  it’s unlikely.  Over the course of these three events we expect Webb to lose a step in the rankings to Stephanie Gilmore and possibly Silvana Lima or even Nikki Van Dijk.  Back before the season started,  we outlined some Bold Predictions for the CT Rookies and suggested Tatiana would finish better than Van Dijk.  With four events left it could be close,  but Maui is the anchor and why we’re still confident.  That’s the next time you’ll get a good return for Webb,  fade until Hawaii.

Tyler Wright ($7.5M / 151 Proj FS Pts) – Wright fared well at Trestles last year,  posting a 15.71 event AHS through the QF,  but we’re seeing an ugly pattern over the last few events (the worst one coming most recently and in the closest comparable conditions).  Prior to her 9th place Fiji run,  Tyler had not finished outside of 5th place.  Sure,  mistakes happen and we chalked it up,  but then she went to Huntington Beach and fell apart.  Wright posted a chilly 11.14 AHS through R2 at an event she won last year with a 13.26 AHS.  In 2013 she put up a 13.33 US Open AHS;  in a vacuum,  that’s right where she should have been this year,  so current performance is a concern.  We’re taking her 14.78 Proj AHS for Lowers with a grain of salt.  Tyler is still too expensive for the big risk involved and grabbing up a tanking stock?  We ain’t about that life.  At this point,  we don’t see Tyler Wright as being viable for the rest of 2015 – if she ever reaches a price low enough to talk about there won’t be enough season left for a turnaround.

Keepers

There are a few potential keepers we would take into account following the US Open,  and they are the top 3:  Sally Fitzgibbons,  Carissa Moore and Courtney Conlogue.  If you own one or more of them,  this will be specific to your situation.  Moore and Conlogue have been in the top pricing tier all season,  so you haven’t likely seen a jump in value along the way.  If you picked up Sally after her 9th place finish at Rio,  though, you’re probably in the best position to hold on.  We can only see one great Keeper that you might consider getting rid of in Johanne Defay.

Johanne Defay ($7.5M / 85 Proj FS Pts) – Defay is in 6th place overall right now, and it doesn’t look like there’s much wiggle room towards the top.  If you have her already,  you’ll have to weight your initial purchase price.  Johanne is projected for a medium 12.32 AHS at Trestles but she made it to last years SF.  That’s better than 4/5 of the top 5 surfers.  The upside is there,  but we have an issue with that price tag and recommend is fading Defay at Lowers.  Even if she cashes in a great event,  her salary might not move;  on the other side of that coin,  though,  her price could drop drastically if she’s out early.  Better to wait it out and test that water;  Either way – she’s due for a solid European Leg.

Buy Low

Stephanie Gilmore ($6M / 175 Proj FS Pts) – You just have to take Gilmore at $6M here,  you’d be crazy not to.  There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Steph heading into Lowers,  she’s missed the last three events and we don’t know how quickly she’ll find a groove.  The upside is almost limitless,  though,  and this is a price you can’t afford to miss.  She’s the Trestles defending Champion,  projected for a 14.85 AHS and if you think she won’t get through R2,  that would be the only reason to leave her out.  Stash Gilmore for a big ROI through the rest of 2015.

Silvana Lima ($4.5M / 125 Proj FS Pts) – This is the final place we’ll advise picking up Silvana Lima.  She’s heading into Lowers with a 13.12 Proj AHS for 93.05 Heat Pts and that’s a very solid projection.  Silvana was injured last year and hasn’t yet competed at Trestles,  but there will be a lot of opportunity for her to drop big points from the sky.  There’s been increasing risk surrounding Silvana since CT #1 when she boosted that 10-pointer,  simply because it’s a very low success-rate maneuver;  she’s been struggling without it.  Trestles will give her an opportunity to capitalize – let’s just hope she can.

[tabbyending]

Hope that helps and good luck out there!  We’ll be around at the #HurleyProTrestles so drop us a Tweet if you want to hang out and talk Fantasy.  Follow on Twitter and Instagram or Like us on Facebook and we’ll like you on Earth!

Have your own Outlook or predictions?  Send them over for consideration and you could find your article up at Surf-Stats.  Questions or comments are also welcomed via data@surf-stats.com – Happy Drafting!