Top Picks - 2015 Women's CT Bells Beach
Last updated March 18, 2015 by Surf-Stats
Updated! Here is the official WSL Women’s Bells Heat Draw with some advice on who to pick up and why.
[tabs slidertype=”left tabs”] [tabcontainer] [tabtext]Heat 1[/tabtext] [tabtext]Heat 2[/tabtext] [tabtext]Heat 3[/tabtext] [tabtext]Heat 4[/tabtext] [tabtext]Heat 5[/tabtext] [tabtext]Heat 6[/tabtext] [/tabcontainer] [tabcontent] [tab]
(5) Malia Manuel
(8) Bianca Buitendag
(14) Laura Enever [/tab] [tab]
(4) Sally Fitzgibbons
(9) Silvana Lima
(15) Nikki Van Dijk [/tab] [tab]
(1) Carissa Moore
(12) Dimity Stoyle
(18) W/C [/tab] [tab]
(2) Stephanie Gilmore
(11) Tatiana Weston-Webb
(17) Alessa Quizon[/tab] [tab]
(3) Tyler Wright
(10) Johanne Defay
(16) Sage Erickson [/tab] [tab]
(6) Lakey Peterson
(7) Courtney Conlogue
(13) Coco Ho [/tab] [/tabcontent] [/tabs]
And with that, here are our Top Picks for the Women’s CT #2 Bells Beach. Use this chart as a great tool to help you research as well:
2015 Women's CT Bells Beach ProjectionsProjected Average Heat Scores (PAHS), Projected Fantasy Points (PFP) and QSFW Power Score at Bells Beach for each Surfer from 2011-2014. Table is sortable, enjoy!
|NAME||PAHS||PFP||Bells Beach QSFW|
|Nikki Van Dijk||13.19||66.52||0|
Carissa Moore. Hands down. Just like Mick Fanning on the Men’s side, most people will be smart enough to pick her up for Bells, and you want to be one of them. Since 2011 Carissa has accumulated a QSFW of 40 – that’s borderline insane. We expect her to make the finals (and likely win the event) with a 15.43 PAHS for 116.24 PFP. Look for Moore to touch down in West Oz with the Gold in tact.
Honorable Mentions: Steph Gilmore (94.3 PFP, but only 14 QSFW). In a similar situation to Men’s draw, there’s a lot of talent in the B pool. We think Carissa Moore will go up against Sally Fitzgibbons in the F, and thanks to CT #1 rankings, you can have them both.
Lots of high quality surfing will emerge from Tier B at Bells. Your choices include but not limited to: Silvana Lima, Sally Fitzgibbons, Courtney Conlogue, Malia Manuel, Coco Ho, Lakey Peterson and Nikki Van Dijk. Our picks for your top 2? One is easy…
Sally Fitzgibbons – Huge 34 QSFW and just 2 SA’s behind Moore, we give Fitz a high probability of facing the current Gold Jersey in the F. 109.77 PFP with a PAHS of 15.82, Sally’s a Tier B lock, pick her up while she’s there because it won’t be for long. With a lower seed it’s possible she faces tougher competition in R4, but that’s only a slight risk for her tremendous upside.
Lakey Peterson – Are you daydreaming about drafting both Sally Fitzgibbons and Silvana Lima in your Tier B? Well cut it out! Start looking at the Heat Draws when they post. Lima and Fitzgibbons are facing off in R1, that means one of them will land it R2 – and we all know what can happen in R2. To maximize your team’s potential, you’ll need to avoid this situation at all costs, and a good way to do that is by picking up one of the 3 Tier B ladies from Heat 6. Lakey is almost a no-brainer in this tier if you consider that she’s the top seed in her heat, we’re projecting a 15.05 AHS for 79.54 PFP. She’s rocking a 5 QSFW and will likely slip under most radars. R3=R4=Payoff, remember?
Honorable Mentions: Malia Manuel, based pretty solely on Heat Draw, she’s fortunate enough to face two Tier C surfers in R1, so we like her chances of a R3 berth. But, we don’t expect her to move past the R4/QF wall with a QSFW of 2.
No-No: Silvana Lima. We love Silvana, and yes, she has a chance at beating Sally Fitzgibbons in R1. That probability is slight, however, and should it occur, Fitz is statistically better at advancing out of R2 than Lima. So to minimize the risk here and separate yourself from the pack, we’ll suggest you let the common-folk choose Lima and Fitzgibbons together. Face it – they’ve all seen that video of her 10 point Goldie ride, and she’s going to be on a lot of teams that you’ll now beat. You’re welcome!
Sage Erickson – She’ll probably lose to Tyler Wright in R1, but no Tier C spot is going to have cake-walk. What’s important is that – if you’re following our advice here – you don’t have Tyler Wright. That means if Sage can pull off an upset in R1 she will immediately pay off. She’s still young in her career and we only project a 12.99 PAHS, but the upside is that she grinds it out into R3; if she does, she’s got a shot at a QF berth, and even a R4 elimination for your Tier C gal is a win.
Sage won’t be the most popular pick, but that’s exactly what you want in this format. You’ll stand in the minority with Erickson and when she exceeds her value, you’ll leave everyone in the dust.
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