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Thinking Strategy - Heat Draws and Diversifying Your Lineup

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Thinking Strategy - Heat Draws and Diversifying Your Lineup

Last updated March 24, 2015 by Surf-Stats

Photo: Justin Mackin

What do you think about when picking your lineup?  Do you look at the stats provided on WSL Fantasy Surfer like 2015 AHS?  With only one event under their belt, that can be a very misleading approach to selecting the best team available.  We have some strategy tips for you to consider heading into Bells Beach and beyond this season.

Heat Draws

Listen, here at SS we don’t think anyone pays nearly enough attention to the Heat Draw.  In the Men’s R1 there will be 12 surfers bypassing R2 with a 20.00 and 6 in the Women’s.  What successful teams do is diversify their picks – spread your team in R1 to avoid the dreaded R2 of death in which you have both surfers in an elimination heat.  This also plays into your favor towards the end of the event; if you have 3-5/8 surfers or more in the QF, you’re set for a big time score.

This diversification need not apply to your Tier C surfer(s), who should be a good statistical candidate to grind it out into R3 and hopefully beyond.

Look at it this way, you can’t have 4/8 QF surfers on your team if some of them match up in an earlier elimination round.  So think about that when you’re locking in a lineup.

Women’s CT #1 Winners Ananlysis

Let’s take a look at the WSL Fantasy Surfing 1st and 2nd place teams for the Women’s CT #1, Kevin’s Picks #1, and Annette’s Picks #2.  OK, they both picked Carissa Moore – that’ll sure help your chances.  Both Tier B’s included Silvana Lima and both teams had Tatiana Weston-Webb in Tier C.  The only difference between the two was their 2nd Tier B spot – Kevin took the winner in Malia Manuel, while Annette went with Lakey Peterson – both good picks, but ultimately one slightly more valuable.

Both these teams cast a wide net in R1 with no two surfers in the same heat from Tiers A or B.  See how valuable that is?  The first time either team had two players facing off in an elimination round was the QF – and that is exactly what you’re going for.  It’s a win for everyone involved – even though one will be eliminated, you have still maximized their value.  If you’ve got your A against your C in the QF – bingo.  Your A will likely win and pay off with a SF berth while your C has paid off just getting to the QF.  Two B’s going at it?  Payoff – you’ll have a B surfer in the SF.

Hope you’ve enjoyed this edition of strategy tips and tricks, and remember – there’s more to fantasy surfing than PAHS, just a few minutes of thinking through your lineup will help you win big.

For more advice and some sortable stats, check out:

2015 Men’s CT Bells Beach Projections


2015 Women’s CT Bells Beach Projections


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