Let’s start with some recognition:  the name Felonious Crunk can be carved in stone as the inaugural winner of a Surf-Stats Clubhouse event with an impressive score of 681.26 (event rank: 341).  I should disclose that Felonious Crunk is owned by my good friend Dave,  but given that he ignored my horrible suggestions and was in the lead throughout most of the contest,  I’d have to say that a massive congratulations are in order (you punk).  Oh,  and some guy named Mick Fanning won a contest and claimed the Yellow Jersey as well.

Results Breakdown:

There were rewards out there for those who were able to pick the right favourites and risk the right underdogs:

Tier A

Mick Fanning – 133.41  (39%)

Adriano de Souza – 124.87  (22%)

Tier B

Gabriel Medina – 117.28  (74%)

Ace Buchan – 94.63  (5%)

Joel Parkinson – 88.66  (38%)

Nat Young – 86.18  (7%)

Tier C

Miguel Pupo – 77.17  (15%)

Kolohe Andino – 47.44  (35%)

Perfect WSL Fantasy Total:  767.64

The top score for the event went to Davi’s Picks with a near-perfect  754.80 (his only ‘fault’  was choosing Italo over Nat).

The Contest in a nutshell:  Mick Fanning has definitely left JBay behind him and refocused on the title.  ADS,  Toledo and Medina led the Brazilian storm back into the fray now that the Pacific leg is over.  Slater went off-script,  causing the judges so many headaches that he and Richie Porta made a video to keep the social media riots at bay.  Tier B surfers Ace,  Wiggolly and Parko lost all momentum during the lay-days.  Medina would have been given a yellow card for ‘simulation’ against Nat Young if he were a futebol player.  The semi-finals were TIGHT,  and could both have easily gone the other way.  JJF left everyone scratching their heads at his heat strategy and lack of results.  Simon Anderson was probably the least impressive in the Heritage session.

The Fantasy Wash-Up’s Team Breakdown:

The Fantasy Wash-Up again posted a disappointingly average effort;  I scored 534.47 (event rank: 19,084)  and dropped 129 positions to 952^nd  in the overall standings.  Let’s sift through the suckfest and see what we can learn:

Hits

There were some definite selection successes in Pupo, Medina and I would even rate Toledo as a decent Tier A option,  but given the high number of teams that chose both Medina and Toledo (and the fact that fewer people had ADS),  I can’t really claim to have been too prophetic with my hits this contest.

Misses

I’ll just start by saying:  Damn You,  Joel Parkinson.  I booted him from my team in an 11^th  hour panic and he repaid my lack of faith by surfing circles around the rest of the tour through R5.  I won’t bitch too hard;  it is great to see Parko at his best,  even if it comes at the expense of my rankings.  He showed some of his 2015 form in the Quarters though,  so it wasn’t all beer and skittles.  It just goes to show the inherent stupidity of over-thinking your picks and making unnecessary changes at the last second;  both of which are serious rookie errors that I thought I gave up long ago.

Melling was a poor,  poor choice (costing me 52.75 points).  JJF’s loss to Ross Williams’  fantasy punching bag,  Micro Hall,  made everyone do a double-take.  Taj peaked in R1,  only to take an early vacation shortly afterwards (I was warned).  I pointed out how good Ace was as a sleeper,  but then failed to select him myself.

While Slater and Bourez were Bede-Durbidge-like in being very good without knocking it out of the park,  they rate as misses simply because they weren’t at the top of the options in their Tiers.

There were definitely more misses than hits this comp.

The Surf-Stats – Numbers Team,  representing the projected totals of the cold,  hard data,  predicted a total of 877.39  *cough, cough*.  Wilson was again a big letdown;  surely the stats won’t be so kind to him in Europe.  Toledo,  Medina and the Tier C options brought some respect to the final score,  but Zietz,  Taj and JJF made for some sorry Tier B totals.  The Numbers Team finished with 454.01  points and finished 10^th  (out of 18)  in the Surf-Stats Clubhouse,  well behind the Surf-Stats Gut Instincts team (4^{th /} 597.01 points)  and the Fantasy Wash-Up  (14^{th /} 534.47 points).  There is a detailed wrap-up of how all of the Surf-Stats predictions fared more generally here.

World Champ Update:

Since winning Lowers,  Mick has taken the title race by the balls.  I still agree with Parko,  though,  when he suggested that Mick would want to push his lead further through Europe rather than rely on a Pipe win.  There are still several names in the mix for the title at this point,  but I’d suggest that it’s Mick’s to lose;  he’s surfing super-fast,  the judges are loving what he’s doing and he looks focused.

Slater has suggested that Europe may not be pencilled in on his calendar after his Trestles result,  and Julian would be long odds.  I’d love to see Owen step it up at France,  but time is running out…

The Men’s European leg starts in France on October 6,  with serial under-performer JJF coming in as reigning champ.  Will he pull a rabbit out of a hat?  Will anyone risk selecting him?  Will Slater even show up?  All this and more will be covered by the Wash-Up in the coming weeks.  Catch us here at Surf-Stats,  or Like us on Facebook to get a regular feed of surfing/fantasy goodness.

See You in the Water,

– Balyn

The Fantasy Wash-Up (Balyn McDonald)  grew up on the east coast of Australia,  nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks,  Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results.  If you buy him a beer he’ll most likely bore you with the reasons why goofy-footers have it harder on tour.  He has recently spent more time building his fantasy team than actually surfing,  a fact which is particularly sad considering he is only ranked 952^nd.  His surprisingly good surfing/WSL tour related Facebook page,  The Fantasy Wash-Up,  can be found here.