Even to a non-surfer,  Pipeline has an aura about it.  You don’t have to know about World Title races,  Triple Crowns or the WSL to appreciate the spectacle that Pipeline/Backdoor provides.  During the past 25 years,  this writer would have had no issue getting psyched for each and every Pipe event.  The first Pipe that I remember seeing was Tom Carroll and that snap at the ’91 event.  As a goofy-footer grom,  TC was my hero for years after that event.  The few times he snaked or dropped in on me (you could rely on it happening),  I would virtually high-five myself.  Forget Title situations;  Pipeline is a stage,  and when the conditions are right,  the players are in the wings and the curtains are raised the whole world watches.

Accounting for all of that,  2015 is setting up as a Pipe year for the ages:  We do have a title race in the balance;  a six-way title race with some seriously complicated scenarios laid out before us.  We also have a mouth-watering long-range forecast at this stage as per Surfline.com:

“Tuesday is looking very promising for Pipe to be very good – Building, long period, westerly energy, which Pipe loves. Pipe will already start out with overhead to double overhead sets in the morning, picking up with double to triple overhead sets in the afternoon, then possibly becoming maxed by nightfall with larger sets washing through from 2nd and 3rd reef. Pipe will remain maxed out through Wednesday morning with large sets washing through, possibly staying maxed out all day. However, the swell will be easing through the day and into Thursday, gradually becoming more tame.”

How about requalification drama?  No issues there either;  with several quality surfers still on the cusp and guys like Stu’ Kennedy possibly getting a spot from the QS if other CT guys like Kolohe can improve their ranking.  Make no mistake;  this year is more than just another big Pipe contest.  If it can live up to even part of the hype it’s promising,  we may witness an event that is going to be remembered for a very long time.

Let’s talk fantasy shop.

The Basics

I will again give you an overview of the 3 main areas of concern for any fantasy surf player (those wanting a reminder of the basics,  my Fantasy 101 article can be found here):

Conditions

Analysing the conditions means having one eye on the forecast;  know whether the event surfers are going to be pulling into heaving slabs or smacking lips like a fun day at D’bah and you’ll be part-way to knowing who would be best on your team.

Another way to analyse the conditions is to look at each surfer’s success in this event in previous years;  if they know how to win here,  they obviously suit the conditions.

Given that the forecast is for proper,  ball-shrinking Pipeline,  here are my nominations for strong ‘conditions’ surfers for this event:

Kelly Slater – Kelly had a lot of doubters in the early 90’s (too new-school,  questions over his big-wave credentials)  and it was through his commitment and subsequent success at Pipe that he managed to silence a majority of them.  Nobody has been more successful at Pipe.  I doubt anyone ever will be over such a long period of time.  Kelly leads this category hands-down.

John John – If anyone is going to make me eat my words regarding that last call about Slater’s legacy,  it’s this man.  JJF is Pipeline.  He grew up surfing overhead Pipe like other kids grow up collecting baseball cards or riding their bike;  it was just a part his childhood.  John John has incredible form and unrivaled knowledge at this break.

Joel Parkinson – Pipe has cost Joel a title or two,  but he is certainly no slouch out there either;  he won in 2012,  got 2^nd in 2011 and 3^rd in 2013. Joel is especially solid in big backdoor,  so check the conditions closely.

Julian Wilson – Julian won here in 2014 and finished 5^th in 2013.  He is worth a look.

Sebastian Zietz – Look at the image below;  Seabass has made quarters of R5 in each of the past few years. That’s got to count for something.

A Wildcard – There have been plenty of wildcard surfers wreaking havoc out here in previous years,  and I’m sure they will have a part to play in 2015.  Bruce Irons has been confirmed and there are 3 other spots up for grabs at time of writing.  As far as Tier C picks with ‘conditions’ credibility go,  wildcards provide great value at Pipe.

Below is a >R5 overview of Pipe for the past 5 years, for those of you wanting to look closer:

Form (by Tiers)

Who is coming into the event with the wind in their sails and who has their tail between their legs?  Recent form counts and should definitely factor into your decision.

Tier A

Gabe – Medina is a little like Slater in that Hawaii could really be the place where he silences a lot of critics if he can commit himself and get a big result.  Gabe got 5^th at the Hawaiian Pro and 2^nd in the bigger waves at Sunset.  He has been tearing up the tour since overcoming his early-season slump and has not finished worse than 5^th since the event at Fiji.  Gabe has form.

Mick – A win at Sunset must have done wonders for Mick’s confidence coming into Pipe.  Mick doesn’t have the greatest record at this event,  but he does have momentum.  Mick works harder than anyone to earn his success,  and I think Sunset could have been enough to get him looking past his previous failures and focused on a big result this year.

*Toledo – Filipe was on fire at Portugal,  and then backed that up with a 2^nd at the Hawaiian Pro.  I had him pegged as a key ‘form’ surfer for Pipe until,  for some reason unknown to me,  he failed to surf the Sunset event.  A result there in solid waves would have set him in my mind as someone to watch at Pipe,  but now that the forecast is big I’m unsure that he’ll turn up.

Tier B

Kolohe – Chloe burned up the Euro QS leg and got two 9^th places in his last two CT events.  While that’s hardly white-hot in regards to form,  it also represents a big difference from the start of the year and a much-improved look of self-confidence in his surfing.  I like the look of Brother these past 3 months.

Nat Young – Nat is always a contender.  His form at Sunset was pretty good (13^th) and his surfing was solid.  He is also comfortable at Pipe.  Nat’s only had only one 25^th this year and is well placed in the race for the Triple Crown.

*Wiggolly Dantas – Wiggolly has gone back-to-back with 25^ths across Europe and is down on form.  He could definitely do well here, but it would be against recent trends.

Tier C

Dusty Payne – Dusty on the CT is like me in life;  always leaving shit until the last second.  After pulling a rabbit out of a hat in 2014,  Dusty narrowly missed his requalification for 2016 by one or two heats at Sunset. He has been solid in Hawaii,  though,  and is sitting at 3^rd in the Triple Crown race behind Wade Carmichael and Medina.  Dusty can’t make it on tour next year,  even with a win at Pipe,  but he has enough form to stand out from the Tier C pack.

A Wildcard – I know I’m repeating myself here,  but if someone gets a wildcard into Pipe based on form,  then they have to be worthy of a mention.

*Jordy Smith – Jordy seems like a steal in this Tier,  but his results in Hawaii have been tepid and he is coming off some major injury set-backs.  Proceed with caution.

Heat Draw:

This factor is probably less important when compared to conditions and form,  but it should still be a consideration.  It is always prone to 11^th-hour changes through withdrawals or inclusions so it should be considered with an eye on the WSL site.  Here are my stand-outs (best chance of a R1 win) for each tier:

Tier A:

Kelly / Medina

Tier B:

Dantas / Joel / Florence / Ace

Tier C:

Wildcards in H5 and H6*

*dependant on selected surfers

Sleeper Picks

I suggested Italo,  Flores and Kolohe at Portugal and they were massive picks for anyone brave enough to take them.  If you’d have added Morais and Simpson to the mix you would have been killing it.  Remember,  every dark horse that does well for you is a double bonus because they are owned by few others.  Here are my picks for surfers owned by fewer than 10% of players (at time of writing):

Flores – Sleepers for Tier A are tough because it means that you’re bypassing some quality talent.  Flores won an event this year at a little place called Teahupo’o,  and he’s a former Pipe Master so his credentials stack up – especially at 1%.

Kelly Slater – This won’t last.  I know that Kelly Slater at 9% for Pipeline is just a momentary reflection of the fact that he’s changed Tiers since Portugal and that trading has only been open for a couple of days.  Even still,  why don’t you have him yet?

Taj Burrow – Remember Taj?  He may have been on a paternal sabbatical,  but Taj is still relevant at Pipe.  At 1%,  this former Pipe champion represents the ultimate Sleeper pick if he can do well.

Dusty Payne – Dusty’s form in Hawaii is not the same as Dusty’s form during the rest of the year.  At 5% I think he is good Tier C sleeper value for Pipe.

If you are risk averse,  Parko (40%),  JJF (56%)  and Mick Fanning (53%) are leading the popularity stakes.

By the Numbers:

At time of writing there are still 4 TBD places in the heat draw.

Given the fact that Surf-Stats have launched their Premium Projections as a Gold membership preview for Pipe,  I’ve decided to do two sets of numbers;  one for the original projections,  and one for the Premium.

Here are the Surf-Stats projected totals across the R1 heat draw:

*Bruce Irons is projected at 64.94,  Dane Reynolds at 63.56,  injury replacement at 48.67 and Wildcard at 58.49 but none are in the official draw.

If you were to use this data in isolation,  the following would be the best possible team:

Tier A:  Gabriel Medina 121.93 and Mick Fanning 118.84

Tier B:  JJ Florence 103.06, Kelly Slater 102.95, Nat Young 102.19 and Joel Parkinson 99.27

Tier C:  Jordy Smith 78.82 and CJ Hobgood 73.11

This team has a projected score of 800.17,  up considerably from the Portugal projections.  It has only two R1 clashes in Slater vs. Ceej and Nat vs. JJF,  which is usually a bad move as it guarantees surfers in the sudden-death R2.

I have been using these stats all season for the WSL fantasy Surf-Stats Numbers Team,  so I will stick with these numbers when selecting the 8 surfers for that team in the Surf-Stats Clubhouse group.  You can test your own picks against these numbers if you want to join the clubhouse (password: fantasy) or you could ignore them completely and use the Premium Projections below.

Here are the Premium Projections for average simulated fantasy points across the R1 heat draw (in brackets):

*Bruce Irons is projected at (36.39),  injury replacement at (35.13),  Wildcard 1 at (37.32) and Wildcard 2 at (19.92) but none are in the official draw.

If you were to use this data in isolation, the following would be the best possible team:

Tier A:  Owen Wright (91.34) and Gabriel Medina (73.97)

Tier B:  JJ Florence (93.15), Adrian Buchan (66.24), Kelly Slater (65.06), Taj Burrow (60.61)

Tier C:  CJ Hobgood (43.04) and Wildcard 1 (37.32)

This team has a much more modest projected score of 530.73 when compared to the other projected team.  It also throws up some interesting changes,  with Owen,  Taj,  Ace and a Wildcard getting spots.  There is a massive three-way clash in H9,  which is a terrible idea,  and another potential clash depending on the Wildcard seed.

I won’t have a team based on these numbers, but I will do a comparison based on the results of the two teams in my wrap-up article.

Team ‘Fantasy Wash-Up’

I’d love to break into the top 500 after this event,  but I can’t see it happening without a massive result.  Here are my personal team picks for Pipeline (dependent on TBD wildcard changes):

Tier A:

Medina and Flores

Mick and Toledo are the most commonly owned surfers in this Tier,  and I need a point of difference if I’m going to make any ground on my competitors.  I’m taking more risk in this event because,  as a “challenger” in most of my leagues,  I don’t have a lead to defend.  I seriously considered Owen over Flores,  and I’m still a little unsure between the two.  At this point though,  I’m leaning slightly towards Flores because of the R1 clash with Dusty.

Tier B:

JJF,  Taj,  Kerr and Slater

I hate these selections as there is a clash between Slater and Taj.  John John and Slater are no-brainers here at Pipe for me,  simply because of their proven abilities.  Slater has the added bonus of a low ownership % (although I’m sure that will change quickly).  Taj is the ultimate sleeper pick at this point and is a solid pick despite his time away.  Kerr is,  in my opinion,  a good choice with relatively low ownership (14%).  I could be tempted to swap him for Nat or even Ace,  but he’s there now.

Tier C:

Dusty and a Wildcard (Melling for now)

I believe that Toledo presents a weaker Tier A opponent,  and I hope to see a strong Wildcard option available in his heat.  I would also consider a Wildcard in ADS’s heat if the available surfer looked strong.  Dusty has done enough in the past few weeks to justify his selection,  but his 2015 form and ongoing injuries still make me nervous.  I can’t select any Wildcards yet,  so Melling is my benchwarmer for now.  I could potentially still end up with 2 Wildcards though (hey- it would have paid off in Portugal).

I know my team is a bit flaky at the moment,  but I haven’t seen the final draw yet so my decisions are still formative.

The Blacklist

The blacklist is my way of getting back at the surfers who have scorned me in contests past.  Or it just lets me poke fun of surfers much more talented than I am who just happen to be surfing poorly in contests.  The list changes with the fortunes of the surfers,  but here it stands currently:

• Wilko – you know the drill with Matt;  he’s too rocks-and-diamonds to take the risk on.  He made the final at Sunset though,  so good luck to him.
• Simpo – Brett surprised many in Portugal.  Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
• Micro – Glenn now has 6 x 25^ths in his last 7 events.  The other was a 13^th.  If I were a WCT surfer,  I’d be lining up to get him as a coach.  Seriously.
• Richardo Christie – Richardo could requalify if he wins Pipe.  I don’t think he will though.
• Miguel Pupo – Miguel can tell his grandkids that,  once,  he did OK at Pipe.  He won’t be talking about 2015 though;  Miguel has gone 25^th at both Tahiti and Fiji this year and doesn’t look worthy of anyone’s selection.
• Kai Otton – I know;  a beefy goofy-footer at Pipe shouldn’t really be Blacklist material.  He even has good form here.  His 2015 form has been poor at best lately,  though,  and I think he needs a wake-up call.  I know that he would never read this article,  but I’m calling him out regardless;  c’mon,  Kai – step it up.
• Jordy – Jordy hasn’t done enough in the last 2 QS events to raise my expectations of him.  Listed.

Surf-Stats Clubhouse

Now that you know the team break-downs,  it’s time for you to create one that will wipe the floor with mine and hold me to account.  The easiest way to prove your dominance is to sign up to the clubhouse (password ‘fantasy’).  Inside you’ll find The Fantasy Wash-Up team,  the Surf-Stats Numbers Team,  the Surf-Stats Gut Instincts and the teams of any other readers willing to throw down the fantasy gauntlet.  The winner of each contest will get a shout-out in the wrap-up article,  $10 credit at Fantasurf and bragging rights until next year.  The reigning champion,  Manocket,  is also leading the clubhouse and providing a worthy target for the rest of us.  There are currently 32 teams in there to beat,  so join up and test your skills.

If you want to challenge me to the point of taking my money,  hit up Fantasurf and find one of my contests.  There will be small and medium dollar values for anyone who wants to play for keeps.

Lastly,  I have set up a page that links all of my articles and connects you to the WSL fantasy universe.  If you like what I’m doing then Like The Fantasy Wash-Up on Facebook and get some fantasy goodness in your newsfeed.

As always, feel free to comment or leave your team selections below.

See you on the leaderboard,

The Fantasy Wash-Up