HEY!  Don’t just read our Outlooks,  take a gander at our stats,  too!  It’s what we’re famous for:  Tahiti Conditions AHS Table / Fantasy Surfer Points/$ Values Table

INJURY UPDATE: 11 August, 2015 – Jordy Smith and Matt Banting have finally made their withdrawals official.  We don’t want to say we knew 100% neither would be surfing, but only because statistics hates certainty.  We’ll say 99.999%.   The two will be replaced by QS #’s 3 and 4 Aritz Aranburu and Garrett Parkes, which disrupts the Heat Draw a bit.  Here are the biggest take-aways from the newly updated Draw and for comparison, check out a visual difference before and after the withdrawals.

Notable Changes:

Julian Wilson – Bet the farm.  He dropped Jordy Smith and C.J. Hobgood in exchange for Sebastian Zietz and INJ Replacement Garrett Parkes.  In the only Heat with two shifts, Wilson has definitely bettered his situation.

Adriano De Souza – He’ll be facing two Tier C surfers now, but call it karma that an injury-free Michel Bourez is realistically a Tier B guy anyway.

C.J. Hobgood – C.J. won’t be buying Jordy Smith a beer anytime soon – he went from two regular-foot opponents (offering some glimmer of hope) to two goofy-footers:  Owen Wright (favored to win the event) and Adrian Buchan (crowd favorite sleeper-pick and past event champion).

We’ll see where things end up as there’s a lot of time between now and the 14th…

Enjoy the Fantasy Outlooks for the Tahiti Pro below, with tabs for WSL Fantasy Surfing and Fantasy Surfer!  If you missed the Conditions AHS or Fantasy Surfer Pts/$ Tables,  just click ’em.  We updated (and continue to update) Surf-Stats.com so let us know what you think – what we can do better and what you’d like to see more of.

Also check out our new Injury Hub – we’re trying to do it, a comprehensive feed of WSL Injury News.  Wish us luck, as it’s no easy task….

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WSL Fantasy Outlook

Well that was an interesting J-Bay conclusion.  Following the Jeffreys Final (in which neither surfer received WSL Fantasy Points?) Mick and Julian have been showcased around the World’s various media outlets.  We are happy that Mick was unharmed and applaud them both as well as the Rescue Team for how the situation was handled.  As far as we’ve heard, both surfers are moving forward without apprehension in getting back in the water.  But just how well can you mentally block an event like that once you put the Jersey back on?  We’ll get into it with our WSL Fantasy Outlook….

Tier A

LOCK IN:  Owen Wright (12.88 Proj AHS for 114.28 Pts) – We all saw Owen dominate Fiji a few short months ago with an historic 2x Perfect 20.00 Heat performance.  He put up an outrageous 130.82 Pts and 16.35 AHS for that event and still, still trails Joel Parkinson in Start %? (No offense, Parko).  Soon everyone will get their real team together and Owen might find himself on more than 50% of them.  Don’t be that guy who thinks Wright can’t do it again – most others in serious contention have had some sort of injury or shark distraction heading into TAH. 

Owen’s projections have been crippled a bit by injury-clad seasons.  The 2015 Fiji Pro was more indicative of a full-health performance and he’ll have an easier path to the Tahiti Pro F as a higher seed.  In just four events here Owen has put together an 11 QSFW and has only finished outside the top 5 once (9th in 2010).  All upside here and only slight risk because he’s half  your Tier A;  we suggest getting risky with your other pick.  HEAT DRAW:  Favorable – If you think Ace Buchan is going to repeat 2013 and/or is going to beat Wright in R1 you are probably wrong, but there is enough risk there to consider.  C.J. Hobgood is a new addition and actually may pose some threat given his history here, but an upset has only a 16% chance with the new Draw.

Nat Young (13.6 Proj AHS for 112.15 Pts) – Of course Nat Young!  We’ve been loving him when it counts this year and Teahupo’o is one of those spots.  Perfect conditions ahead for Young who is having the breakout year we knew he would.  Nat has a 0 QSFW in his two events here, but that includes a tough-luck loss last time to Kai Otton with an 18.06 (unfortunately, he’s up against Otton in R1 – but monitor Heat Draw for injuries). 

We expect Nat to have a great event and improve on his 12.7 Tahiti Career AHS.  Few of the 6 surfers ranked ahead of him are coming into this event distraction-free, so Young may be able to capitalize with a clear head.  If he can, it would mean a big standout for your team with his (as of 7 August) 5% start rate.  Nat would pay off big if more popular surfers don’t quite have it for Teahupo’o….  HEAT DRAW:  Medium – He’s got our second-highest ranked Tier C surfer Dusty Payne now (instead of our #1 Kolohe Andino), but Kai Otton is still here. 

Julian Wilson (12.02 Proj AHS for 121.57 Pts) and Mick Fanning (13.67 Proj AHS for 108.5 Pts) – The Shark Brothers (too late for the hashtag? #sharkbrothers – doing it anyway) decided to split the points following Jeffreys, leaving Adriano De Souza in the Gold for Tahiti.  A lot of mystery surrounds these two concerning their mental stability after the encounter.  Putting the Jersey back on for a heat might drum up some unwanted thoughts or flashbacks – at Teahupo’o, the consequence for any lapse in confidence can be steep.

Mick has been very successful at Tahiti in the past, posting a career 13.27 AHS and a hefty 26 QSFW.  All things indicated are good, but at 56% started it would seem many are ignoring the previously outlined mental risks – you might want to take advantage. 

For Wilson’s projections, there is obviously some weight to last season when he won the Pipe Masters in similar conditions.  He’s still a monster on paper, but after losing the Fiji Pro finals to an in-form Owen Wright this year, we would have to recommend Wright over Jules for the win.  HEAT DRAWS:  Fanning – Favorable: Now Fanning has not only W/C Taumata Puhetini, but he’ll also face fantasy wet-noodle Adam Melling.  Neither one will put up a shark-worthy fight so Mick should be able to punch his way into R3 – another lucky break.  Wilson – Favorable:  He’s ditched Jordy Smith and C.J. Hobgood for Sebastian Zietz and INJ Replacement Garrett Parkes.  Whatever charity Julian is donating to, it’s working.

Stay Away Alert….

 Kelly Slater (15.57 Proj AHS for 103.29 Pts) – Welcome back to Tier A, Mr. Slater!  Thanks to a great turnout by Kelly at the J-Bay Open he’s up to #6 on the Rankings and has some big numbers projected for CT #7.  But remember the stats anomaly factor:  Slater has been so good for so long that his numbers are always going be, well so awesome (you simply can’t earn a 76 QSFW without 5 Event Wins plus a QF in 6 years minimum).  This year he is (finally) starting to show his age and looks a long way from the form that earned him these numbers.  

The Fiji Pro has very similar conditions to Tahiti and Slater put up a 14.06 AHS for 70.32 Heat Points there this past June.  That’s a great result for anyone except Kelly Slater, where in the past he’s been much more dominant.  We are still sticking with our “No Kelly Until He Wins an Event” motto (sorry, Kelly), especially now that he’s back in Tier A.  HEAT DRAW: Extremely Favorable – Higher seeding means “easier” opponents.  None may be easier than the still woeful Glenn Hall (who has been replaced after reseeding by Brett Simpson, not much more risk) and Jadson Andre won’t likely fare much better.  That being said, Kelly is out of rhythm this year and might err, leaving the door open for a big Jadson Andre upset.  There’s a bigger chance for this than you might think so be careful. 

Adriano De Souza (10.53 Proj AHS for 72.67 Pts) – Long story short, look for De Souza to be giving up the Gold after Tahiti.  Truth-be-told and no disrespect – he should have lost it after J-Bay (did anyone else see a #13 on that shark?). Thanks to one of the rarest events we’ve ever seen unfold, Adriano remains on top.

Being a “scrapper ’til the end” is a true-grit quality that we love in De Souza, it just hasn’t helped much in locations like TAH.  His Fiji Pro 12.00 AHS for 36 Pts is lowering our blood pressure, so thanks at least for that.  HEAT DRAW:  Favorable – As the highest seed, De Souza will continue to face low-level surfing, such as Wild Card Bruno Santos (QS #4 and viable risk, though) – but now he’s redrawn Michel Bourez.  Bourez is only a low seed because he’s missed some events due to injury (it’s just so fashionable these days), and while we don’t project him to have a great event, he still poses more threat than Adam Melling.

Tier B

LOCK IN:  Gabriel Medina (13.16 Proj AHS for 105.35 Pts) – Medina showed plenty of life at Jeffreys Bay, posting a 14.84 Event AHS for a season-high 94.2 Pts.  We were very accurate on Medina putting up an awful Australian Leg of 2015, but as expected, he’s since picked up the slack.  Over three AUS events this year Gabriel mustered up a dismal 9.98 AHS, but in three competitions since then his AHS is 14.42 – that’s a 44.49% increase and a good trend upward.  You can’t ignore a 15.4 TAH Career AHS with a 16 QSFW in only 3 events either.  Plenty of teams might draft him (especially in Brazil), but that’s the reality of the LOCK IN pick.  HEAT DRAW:  Favorable – Medina will now face Ricardo Christie (replacing Freddy P in new Draw) and Italo Ferreira in R1.  While Patacchia wouldn’t have us thinking twice about Medina, the post-Fiji Ricardo is just barely enough risk to consider.  Italo Ferreira has been known to slay dragons as well.  Gabriel’s obviously the heavy favorite, but upsets are called upsets for a reason and now there’s 2x the potential – be warned.

John John Florence (15.69 Proj AHS for 115.7 Pts) – Our model likes John John Florence for Tahiti, where he holds an outrageous career 16.35 AHS and 7 QSFW.  As per a recent video interview and post by Stab Magazine,  John John is looking healthy and surfing well, wearing an ankle brace only for precautionary reasons.  There is plenty of risk surrounding Florence, though.  For one, he’s had a lot of time away from surfing with the injury (missed the last two events) and second, he’s been fully distracted by promoting/editing/debuting his new film.  If you’re ready to assume that risk, also consider this:  in his 3.5 official years on the CT, JJ only has two event wins – Rio (2012) and France (2014), both beach breaks.  Can John John finally win his first event in statistically advantageous conditions?  It would seem like the upside does outweigh risk here.  HEAT DRAW:  Extremely Favorable – Bede Durbidge might have a bit of a run here in Tahiti, but it won’t start in R1 if Florence is 100%.  Freddy Patacchia won’t likely have a run here in Tahiti at all.

Quick Note on Injuries…

In case you haven’t noticed we have a new section called Injury Hub, where we’ll do our best to stay on top of any breaking news.  There seems to be a giant lapse in communicating surfer injury statuses, but we’ll do what we can to keep you up to speed.  We all know how a last-minute injury can negatively impact fantasy lineups as well as the overall shape of the Draws.

The truth is that the Heat Draws will change drastically for Tier B surfers if some of them withdraw due to injury.  Here are some key uncertainties in the middle tier…

Jeremy Flores (12.55 Proj AHS for 102.98 Pts) – Update – It appears Flores is going to be surfing Tahiti this year.  He will likely by helmeted-up and off-mark due to absence.  This is a very tough location to get your groove back, so we still don’t recommend risking it on Jeremy…

Previous Outlook: We’d love to outright recommend Flores here as he’s frothing to get into Tahiti for the first time in two years. But, we can’t.  Not without the all-clear from his doctors.  Flores just got in the water for the first time last weekend in small surf and has stated he’s hopeful, but also that it’s ultimately up to the medical team.  On 7 August, he shared this post on instagram:

We’re hopeful that he can get in for the event, but as fickle as his injuries are he shouldn’t be drafted until 100% committed.  HEAT DRAW:  Unfavorable – Flores will have upset candidate Wiggolly Dantas in R1, but he’ll also have Miguel Pupo.  If the Draw remains like this, our money is on Dantas for sure.

Jordy Smith (11.95 Proj AHS for 80.02 Pts) – Update – Looks like we were right about Jordy’s hype-tastic Instagram video.  When will these guys learn to address the media… This does nothing but hurt a surfers image and popularity.  Anyway, don’t bet on or draft Jordy Smith for the rest of the year…

Previous Outlook: It would appear that Jordy Smith is back in action as per Josh Kerr’s recent Instagram Post (worth checking out, he punts a ridiculous alley oop).  We still have no official word on the injury from Jordy himself, and it would appear that the Instagram video is part of deceiving trend to appear healthy with dated footage.  We don’t trust it and Aritz Aranburu recently wished him to get well soon on Instagram (along with announcing he’ll be in the event as an Injury Replacement for either Jordy or Matt Banting).  Definitely monitor, though, and with all the lost time from surfing this year, maybe you want to leave Smith out for Tahiti regardless.  HEAT DRAW:  Unfavorable – Julian Wilson R1 – enough said if Wilson is 100%.

Big Risk, Big Upside:  Adrian Buchan (11.79 Proj AHS for 83.59 Pts) – Adrian played the role of David in 2013, slaying then Goliath Kelly Slater with an 18.94 in a big Finals upset.  Last year he was solid again, bowing out with a tough-luck QF 19.00 loss to Bede Durbidge.  An impressive 13.44 TAH Career AHS and an 18 QSFW should raise some eyebrows.  What we love about drafting Ace is that most people are aware of his upside potential, but the majority will leave him on the bench in favor of bigger names.  Don’t be the majority, Ace should be your ^risk/^value Tier B pickup.  HEAT DRAW:  Extremely Unfavorable – R1 finds Buchan up against our event favorite Owen Wright, which isn’t good.  His 20th place seed won’t make it easy either.  After the INJ reseeding, he went from bad to worse, picking up former Chopes Champ C.J. Hobgood in lieu of Dusty Payne.

ZZZzzzzzzz Tier B Sleeper Picks…

Italo Ferreira (13.04 Proj AHS for 64.63 Pts) – Ferreira has climbed to CT #9 as the highest ranked 2015 Rookie.  Seemingly suited for smaller, choppier conditions like his #BrazilianStorm irmãos, Italo surprised the world at this year’s Fiji Pro.  He won R1 against Joel Parkinson and Freddy Patacchia, then upset Jadson Andre and Kelly Slater before losing to Julian Wilson with a 17.00 in the QF.  If you’re interested in taking a huge risk, Italo Ferreira might just pay off.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium/Unfavorable – Gabriel Medina will do his best to make R1 difficult for Italo and there’s a small chance that Ricardo Christie could pull off an unthinkable upset.

Kai Otton (12.56 Proj AHS for 75.75 Pts) – Kai has been very successful in Tahiti and Fiji (as well as Rio this year, coming into event #7 with two 5th place finishes in a row).  He flies under a lot of radars but has been quietly making a case for himself:  12.9 TAH Career AHS and 6 QSFW.  Otton also has a very solid Average Placing at 12th over his career at Teahupo’0 and has placed 3rd twice (2007 and 2013).  In a sea of injury uncertainty, Ottz may be your safest bet in Tier B.  HEAT DRAW:  Medium/Unfavorable – Nat Young is projected to win R1, but Otton has a solid chance of escaping R2 if he ends up there.  He beat Nat in the QF last year so it can certainly happen.

Wiggolly Dantas (11.99 Proj AHS for 103.06 Pts) – Watch out for Wiggolly Dantas at Tahiti.  He did well for us at Fiji and now his R1 Heat Draw is wrapped in potential injury surprises.  He has the ability to beat both Jeremy Flores and fellow Brazilian Miguel Pupo without issue and the stronger opponent Flores will likely be out of rhythm.

Tier C

Tier C is looking very, very weak with only a few exceptions.  Good thing you only need two picks….

Kolohe Andino (11.71 Proj AHS for 52.38 Pts) – Kolohe has our highest Proj Pts in Tier C (category: realistic – sorry C.J.) and tied for second in QSFW with 1.  It’s not a lot, but Freddy Patacchia only has a 3 and this is his 11th year on Tour.  Everyone else here has 0 except Brett Simpson, and we don’t recommend picking him up.  Kolohe has a very low seed, but this is a thin Tier, his history of finishes is 25th in 2013 but he came in 5th place last year.  HEAT DRAW:  Favorable – Kolohe Andino just jumped into fortune.  After the reseeding, he’s replaced opponents Nat Young and Kai Otton with Josh Kerr and Matt Wilkinson; he was already our top Tier C pick, but now you just have to take him.

Dusty Payne (11.4 Proj AHS for 47.1 Pts) – Dusty has our second highest Proj Pts in Tier C.  He will have it just as hard as Andino in navigating the event, but a solid chance at a R3 berth as well.  Payne stands to have a small start %, so if you’re looking for standout value potential he’s your man.  Let everyone else take the top names of the bottom tier because….

It’s A Trap!

C.J. Hobgood (13.02 Proj AHS for 83.69 Pts) – C.J. is officially in the Kelly Slater Club, in which his years of big, left-hand, reef-break barrel riding have inflated numbers beyond current expectations.  His projections look solid, but we don’t see Hobgood pulling off a miracle swan-song in his final season.  Deep, deep in our inner fantasy sports child we still feel the urge to recommend C.J, but that’s why it’s a trap.  Too alluring and too potentially costly.  HEAT DRAW:  Extremely Unfavorable – He was up against Julian Wilson and Jordy Smith, which was bad.  But now that Smith is out he’s up against Owen Wright (fellow goofy and Fiji Maestro) and Adrian Buchan (Kelly-Slayer and fellow former goofy-champ).  Yikes.  Don’t go anywhere near Hobgood for this one – experience is a plus, but it can only take you so far. 

Michel Bourez (11.67 Proj AHS for 45.47 Pts) – Local Tahitian Michel Bourez is always popular back home at Teahupo’o.  There’s no doubt that plenty of teams will draft him for this reason alone, but let’s take a closer look.  Bourez only has a TAH Career AHS of 12.17, a big fat 0 QSFW, and an AHS <12 for 6-10′, Left-Hand and Reef conditions.  His average TAH finish is in the 44.4th percentile at 16.3 place – AKA, not great.  There’s just too much reason to avoid Michel at CT #7.  HEAT DRAW: Unfavorable – #1 Adriano De Souza isn’t particularly favorable in big, left breaks.  But Bourez isn’t either.

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Fantasy Surfer Outlook

A cloud of injury and uncertainty looms above the Billabong Tahiti Pro this year.  Aritz Aranburu has confirmed he will be surfing in the event, but as Injury Replacement for Matt Banting or Jordy Smith remains publicly unknown.  We’ll update as soon as we find out more.  Jeremy Flores remains doubtful with concussion symptoms while John John Florence is apparently healthy and ready to compete.  But monitor on all fronts!  We’ve seen everything change at literally the last second before (Matt Banting at J-Bay).

Jeffreys was a wild ride from soup to nuts.  We’d like to give credit to Fantasy Surfer for handling the canceled Finals points (in our opinion, anyway) correctly.  If you followed along with us prior, you probably had Mick and Julian in the lineup.  You might have missed out on Slater, but if you ever want to jump on the Kelly Wagon no one’s going to stop you.  We still don’t think he’s a strong candidate at that price anywhere in 2015, though.  On to the Outlook, we’ll start at the top…..

Julian Wilson ($9.25M / 250 Proj FS Pts) and Owen Wright ($8.75M / 151 Proj FS Pts) – Julian Wilson is coming into Tahiti with back-to-back Finals appearances, one in similar conditions at Fiji.  Our model likes him to win, but that’s because Owen Wright’s numbers are still affected by previous seasons in which he was injured.  Owen has a better chance at taking the Billabong Tahiti Pro and will save you $500K.  If you have either one or both of these guys already it might make sense to hold onto them.  Owen still has favorable conditions coming after Teahupo’o at Portugal and the Pipe Masters, while Julian – if he is unaffected by the shark encounter – is having a breakout year and should succeed at every remaining stop.  To keep them both, though, you’re going to have to swap the lower priced spots and be versatile.

Adriano De Souza ($10M / 81 Proj FS Pts) – De Souza, the Golden.  A freak event has kept Adriano alive in the throne for now, but he’ll most likely be unseated after Tahiti.  We’re only projecting a 10.53 AHS from him here, and his career TAH AHS is an ice cold 11.29.  De Souza doesn’t excel competitively in big waves, notching an AHS of just 10.48 in 6-10′ conditions.  If you already have De Souza, it’s going to be a tough call.  He’s been very successful on the European Leg historically and if you’ve had him most of the year, you definitely have to ride out Tahiti;  Adriano’s price tag will be too high to re-buy even if he has an awful TAH event.  That price tag certainly makes him too expensive to draft.  If you have the budget for De Souza, we highly recommend using it on Gabriel Medina ($10M / 127 Proj FS Pts) instead.

Mick Fanning ($12.25M / 128 Proj FS Pts) – Fanning has a career 26 QSFW and 13.27 AHS in Tahiti.  He looks like a great option to keep on your squad if he is there already.  If not, there is no way you should pick him up.  He will probably go QF or better, given his high seed, but he won’t likely win the event.  $12M+ is very, very hefty.

Kelly Slater ($10.5M / 125 Proj FS Pts) – We’re warning you, don’t do it.

Injury Uncertainties: 

John John Florence ($7.5M / 175 Proj FS Pts) and Jeremy Flores ($3.75M / 102 Proj FS Pts) – Flores and Florence are a 7-10 split in the middle pricing tier for just about every category.  Jeremy is still considered Doubtful while John John has been bumped to Probable, but both represent a good Pts/$ value if they compete.  Flores has the top projected points per dollar value at 2.72.  Anyone who can realistically get you 100+ FS Pts for <$4M is a good bet – he just has to surf.  Luckily, J-Flo has been considerate in giving early withdrawal notice, so monitor the situation this week.  John John is much less transparent, but if a recently released video is current, he’s back to surfing at least 95% (with a precautionary ankle support).

There’s less injury risk with JJF and he stands to make a run for the W at 100%, but if he’s out of your price range, we definitely suggest Jeremy Flores.  Can’t beat the cost for huge potential upside – and if he withdraws, there’s always (gulp) C.J. Hobgood….

Jordy Smith ($6.25M / 83 Proj FS Pts) and Matt Banting ($3M / 42 Proj FS Pts) – Earlier today, Aritz Aranburu said he’s glad to be in the Tahiti Pro, but sorry it only comes from another surfer’s injury.  He also included a get well message to both Smith and Banting.  Obviously he can’t replace both of them and this compounds a bit of fan frustration regarding public clarity.  The WSL and CT surfers prefer to stay marketable and an Injured/Withdrawn status does nothing to help that.  We understand the business side of coy status management and disclosure timing, but it’s getting out of hand.  Jordy Smith’s recently released alley oop Instagram video may or may not be current footage.  We don’t trust either of these scenarios, and while Banting is more likely out for the event, Smith’s price tag is just too hefty given the withdraw risk.  Stay away.

Nat Young ($8M / 150 Proj FS Pts) – If you don’t have Nat, buy now.  If you do, nice work.  Young is having a big year, just like we thought he would, and 4/5 of the remaining tour stops suit his surfing (Tahiti, Trestles, Portugal and Pipeline).  We’d be very surprised to see Nat exit Tahiti before R4 even though he has a 0 QSFW.  That’s only through two events though, and this is the year he’s starting to make a ripple in the tour.  Nat Young will be a solid investment for the rest of the year even at $8M, and he’s not injury-prone: 100% draft.

Wiggolly Dantas ($5.5M / 103 Proj FS Pts) – Wiggolly Dantas has big potential to better his CT ranking through 2015, and it starts right here with Tahiti.  He had a much better J-Bay than we could have hoped and at 1.87 Pts/$ he’s not slouching in opposite conditions either.  The price is right for Dantas and if you think he’ll go R5 or better you will earn some value.

Top Pts/$ Values:

Dusty Payne ($3M / 76 Proj FS Pts) and Sebastian Zietz ($4.5M / 100 Proj FS Pts) – Performance by either of these two can’t be guaranteed, and though Zietz is projected to put up better numbers, he’s +$1.5M over Payne.  In the end it’s always your call, but we think Zietz has more than $1.5M in points upside.  They’re both up there over 2.5, though, and should be safe for payoff either way.

Potential Sleepers:

Italo Ferreira ($5.5M / 79 Proj FS Pts) and Kai Otton ($6.25M / 82 Proj FS Pts) – Neither Italo or Kai are projected to have a lot of value per dollar (1.44 and 1.31 respectively) but that’s what makes them potential sleeper picks.  We all know what Ferreira did in Fiji (upsets vs. Jadson, Parko, Freddy P. and even Slater) and it’s time we started taking him seriously, even in serious conditions.  Ottz, on the other hand, has proven himself not just in similar locations, but Tahiti itself in the past.  He wouldn’t be making our list if he didn’t have such a successful string of recent events (2 5th place finishes in a row).  This has been a boost to Kai’s value for the rest of the year beyond Teahupo’o and he could be worth a look.  The projections are there for a good sleeper run.

Avoid, Avoid, Avoid:

Michel Bourez ($6.75M / 47 Proj FS Pts) and C.J. Hobgood ($3.25M / 86 Proj FS Pts) – We’re done recommending C.J. Hobgood.  He’s burned us more times this year than we’d like to recall and can’t expect him to produce like the old days.  He won’t likely get anywhere near 86 FS Pts in Tahiti and now that we’ve gone and suggested you toss him, he’ll probably make the SF.

Bourez, on the other hand, might be a harder pick for you to ignore.  He’s the local Tahitian and crowd favorite, but statistically he’s not very good at home.  TAH Career AHS is 12.17 with a 0 QSFW, his average finish place is 16.33 and Bourez is <12 in AHS for all represented forecast conditions.  His Proj AHS for Teahupo’o is 11.67 and that looks about right to us.  Hoping for a surprise because we love the guy, but not getting our hopes up.  Leave Michel to everyone else.

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Hope you’re enjoying the Outlooks and as always, happy drafting!   In case you’re wondering: Yes – Russia is still trying to hack us relentlessly and: No – We have not received our million trillion billion dollar check from a random donor yet.

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