Rip Curl Finals Preview
Last updated September 10, 2021 by Balyn McDonald
You thought we’d leave you hanging? No chance! We’ve got the fantasy surf finals game for you…
Love it, or hate it, there’s no way of getting around the new format of crowning a champion for this year’s CT season.
5 surfers, one day, winner takes all.
For those unfamiliar with the new format, it’s basically sudden death man-on-man heats working their way up from the lower seeds. Once it’s whittled down to 2 surfers, there will be a best-of-three-heats battle for the title of 2021 champion.
Anyone wanting a little more detail, can have a gander over here.
Our late entry into fantasy finals may have been pretty close to the waiting period, but the forecast always guaranteed us a few days’ grace. In fact, we have kept trading open until Sunday (at the earliest).
Here’s the latest forecast from the WSL, with Monday and Tuesday calling for possible 10′ faces and mild winds. We’re psyched to see quality waves on the cards.
The FSS Fantasy Finals
While the new format presented us with a logistical challenge, we’re pumped to share our finals fantasy game with the world.
Here’s the basics:
- You choose 2 surfers (budget isn’t an issue).
- Each surfer gets an increasing amount of fantasy points for consecutive rounds won; 5,000 for the first win, 15,000 for a two in a row, 30, 000 if they can manage a three straight, and a mouth-watering 50,000 for winning all four rounds from the lowest seed (I’m looking at you Morgan and Conner).
- 10,000 fantasy points for winning the event (and the world title).
- 0 points for a loss (yep; donuts).
- The final round (best of 3 heats) counts as a single win/loss.
It all boils down to how much risk you want to take with a lower seed in the hope of consecutive wins. Gabe is the only surfer with a guaranteed shot at the 10,000 points for winning the event, but he can’t get more than one consecutive win. Morgan or Conner could hit it big with consecutive wins, but they have to beat some quality opposition.
A few more details:
- It’s possible to get a score of 0 for this contest (even with Italo and Gabe in your team).
- The highest possible score is 60,000 (if you correctly pick Morgan or Conner to win the title).
- We acknowledge that there will be quite a few ‘tied’ fantasy results because of the limited variables possible within this format.
For those reasons, the following applies:
- There will be no individual prize for this event.
- Scores for this event WILL be used to count towards the end-of-year fantasy season leaderboard (and prize).
- Statistically, it looks like there are still 37 teams in the running to win.
Best of luck!
Again, we’re not going to leave you hanging.
Check the table below to see the AHS (average heat score), win % and average place for all of the relevant metrics for this venue. The only thing we can’t give you, is the winning team. If you really want us to nail our colours to the mast, then check our predictions at the bottom.
Rip Curl Finals Metrics - TrestlesKey:
AHS: average heat score (out of 20)
L/R: breaks that offer both left- and right-hander waves
4-6': data in wave conditions between four and six feet in wave height
Point: data in point break conditions
LT: event data specific to competitions at Lower Trestles
|Surfer Name||Season Win %||Season AHS||L/R win %||L/R AHS||4-6' win%||4-6' AHS||Point win %||Point AHS||LT Avg Place||LT Win %||LT AHS|
Best fantasy pick: Filipe. He has the bonus of potential consecutive wins (3), combined with a genuine chance at taking out the title. He has the best metrics for this venue, and he has a ‘home court’ advantage. Hard to go past.
2021 Tour Champion: Gabe. He’s easily been the most dominant surfer this year, he has the next-best metrics for these conditions after Filipe, and he’s the only surfer with a guaranteed shot at the best-of-three final. Despit all of that, the real reason why Gabe will win this year is that I just can’t see someone beating him twice in a row.
Best of luck with your finals teams, and feel free to give us feedback on the new game.