Oi Rio Pro - Metrics 2018
Last updated May 7, 2018 by Balyn McDonald
I have waited long enough for the WSL to move on from their wave machine experiment and get back to the core business of managing the world tour. There is still no heat draw or mention of wildcards (as of publishing), so I’ll offer what I have for now. I’ll try to update in time, but I have also included a few ‘unannounced’ surfers in the hope that their stats are useful when the full draw is released.
All of our ‘career’ average heat score and win % statistics are taken from 2013-2018 WSL contest seasons*. They do not reflect the entire careers of surfers who have been on tour longer than that.
*I have not added the data from the Founders Cup event in my contest metrics. This isn’t because not because I haven’t recorded any (I’ll use them for my WSL event preview in September), but because I’m not sure they’re relevant to this type of contest.
A successful fantasy player doesn’t rely on past results or projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel balances the metrics with your instinct. That’s what we do, and we’re regularly awash in the glories of fantasy mediocrity.
Rio Metrics
Key:Win % - career heat win percentage from 2013-2017
AHS - career average heat score 2013-2017
2018 win% - percentage of heats won in current season
2018 AHS - average heat score for current season
E. Heats - number of heats surfed at this event (2013-2017)
1-4' - average heat score in wave heights 1-4' (2013-2017)
4-6' - average heat score in wave heights 4-6' (2013-2017)
Left/Right - average heat score in breaks offering both lefts and rights (2013-2017)
Beach- average heat score in beach breaks (2013-2017)
Proj AHS - projected AHS for this event
Proj Finish- projected placing for this event
| Surfer | Win % | AHS | 2018 win% | 2018 AHS | EAHS | E.Heats | 1-4' | 4-6' | Left/Right | Beach | Proj AHS | Proj Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Medina | 65.67 | 13.59 | 55.56 | 11.81 | 15.13 | 21 | 14.41 | 14.28 | 14.34 | 14.23 | 12.87 | 1 |
| John John Florence | 65.16 | 14.61 | 20 | 11.83 | 13.13 | 16 | 14.65 | 15.46 | 14.37 | 14.26 | 12.76 | 2 |
| Jordy Smith | 58.21 | 13.04 | 40 | 12.81 | 14.3 | 20 | 13.73 | 14.41 | 14.11 | 13.69 | 12.53 | 3 |
| Adriano de Souza | 55.8 | 12.95 | 37.5 | 9.3 | 14.12 | 25 | 13.31 | 12.61 | 13.66 | 13.55 | 11.86 | 3 |
| Julian Wilson | 56.76 | 12.54 | 77.78 | 11.46 | 11.82 | 14 | 12.95 | 13.21 | 12.98 | 12.27 | 11.3 | 5 |
| Joel Parkinson | 54.34 | 12.95 | 33.33 | 11.45 | 12.8 | 13 | 13.63 | 13.04 | 12.45 | 12.3 | 11.58 | 5 |
| Filipe Toledo | 52.31 | 13.07 | 50 | 10.52 | 14.64 | 19 | 13.49 | 11.75 | 13.8 | 13.31 | 12 | 5 |
| Italo Ferreira | 52.1 | 12.1 | 63.64 | 12.35 | 13.07 | 10 | 13.22 | 12.52 | 13.02 | 12.91 | 11.67 | 5 |
| Owen Wright | 50.34 | 13.21 | 60 | 9.95 | 13.71 | 13 | 13.92 | 12.29 | 12.87 | 12.87 | 11.76 | 9 |
| Adrian Buchan | 45.05 | 12.37 | 60 | 10.74 | 12.93 | 20 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 12.47 | 12.11 | 11.4 | 9 |
| Kolohe Andino | 46.28 | 12.44 | 40 | 9.49 | 11.43 | 15 | 12.94 | 11.87 | 12.69 | 12.62 | 10.95 | 9 |
| Michel Bourez | 48.74 | 11.67 | 60 | 11.59 | 10.91 | 20 | 12.46 | 11.31 | 11.25 | 10.52 | 10.33 | 9 |
| Frederico Morais | 44.07 | 12.4 | 40 | 9.82 | 12.74 | 3 | 11.64 | 14.1 | 12.23 | 11.92 | 11.01 | 13 |
| Jeremy Flores | 42.42 | 12.77 | 50 | 12.02 | 12.15 | 11 | 12.44 | 13.6 | 12.17 | 11.36 | 11.13 | 13 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 44.13 | 11.06 | 28.57 | 9.3 | 11.24 | 18 | 11.59 | 11.65 | 11.37 | 11.47 | 10.18 | 13 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 40.44 | 12.01 | 16.67 | 8.73 | 12.23 | 18 | 12.45 | 12.61 | 12.26 | 11.87 | 10.79 | 13 |
| Connor O'Leary | 40.91 | 11.66 | 16.67 | 9.36 | 12.37 | 3 | 11.52 | 12.97 | 11.58 | 11.67 | 10.61 | 13 |
| Kanoa Igarashi | 40.74 | 10.41 | 28.57 | 10.26 | 13.58 | 7 | 10.91 | 10.03 | 11.87 | 11.36 | 10.39 | 13 |
| Mikey Wright | 36.36 | 12.91 | 33.33 | 12.06 | 0 | 13.77 | 10.5 | 13 | ||||
| Wiggolly Dantas | 33.96 | 11.31 | 13.97 | 9 | 12.65 | 11.19 | 11.29 | 11.46 | 10.99 | 13 | ||
| Conner Coffin | 34.94 | 10.68 | 33.33 | 9.89 | 11.58 | 4 | 11.96 | 11.18 | 11.57 | 10.96 | 10.21 | 13 |
| Miguel Pupo | 35.48 | 10.95 | 0 | 7.78 | 10.73 | 14 | 11.47 | 10.87 | 11.71 | 11.71 | 9.92 | 13 |
| Ian Gouveia | 30.56 | 11.26 | 0 | 9.13 | 13.37 | 2 | 12.44 | 11.69 | 11.35 | 11.26 | 10.69 | 13 |
| Willian Cardoso | 33.33 | 12.3 | 28.57 | 10.09 | 0 | 13.28 | 9.79 | 13 | ||||
| Joan Duru | 27.91 | 12.4 | 0 | 10.61 | 14.05 | 2 | 12.31 | 13.7 | 12.45 | 12.44 | 11.52 | 25 |
| Yago Dora | 26.67 | 11.73 | 0 | 9.44 | 14.23 | 7 | 13.9 | 10.33 | 14.23 | 14.23 | 11.86 | 25 |
| Ezekiel Lau | 28.21 | 11.35 | 33.33 | 8.75 | 12.93 | 2 | 11.57 | 12.29 | 11.77 | 10.03 | 10.29 | 25 |
| Alejo Muniz | 30.23 | 11.07 | 9.2 | 9 | 10.57 | 8.91 | 11.28 | 11.06 | 9.29 | 25 | ||
| Keanu Asing | 28.17 | 10.41 | 0 | 9.8 | 10.79 | 7 | 11.33 | 10.02 | 10.81 | 10.9 | 9.74 | 25 |
| Tomas Hermes | 27.78 | 10.13 | 40 | 9.05 | 0 | 11.44 | 9.82 | 11.72 | 11.72 | 9.67 | 25 | |
| Wade Carmichael | 23.08 | 10.46 | 33.33 | 11.03 | 0 | 12.3 | 6 | 6 | 8.3 | 25 | ||
| Jesse Mendes | 18.18 | 10.81 | 14.29 | 10.7 | 11.65 | 2 | 11.07 | 11.65 | 11.65 | 10.19 | 25 | |
| Michael February | 10 | 9.16 | 16.67 | 8.03 | 0 | 10.1 | 7.48 | 25 |
Rio Pro Event History
Empty fields denote absent/injured surfer| Surfer | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Total | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yago Dora | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||||||
| Adriano de Souza | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 4.86 |
| Italo Ferreira | 3 | 9 | 12 | 6 | |||||
| John John Florence | 1 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 7.4 | ||
| Filipe Toledo | 5 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 41 | 8.2 | ||
| Sebastian Zietz | 5 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 49 | 9.8 | ||
| Joel Parkinson | 5 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 59 | 9.83 | |
| Jordy Smith | 13 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 71 | 10.14 |
| Michel Bourez | 9 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 62 | 10.33 | |
| Owen Wright | 5 | 13 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | ||
| Nat Young | 9 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 53 | 10.6 | ||
| Gabriel Medina | 25 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 11 | |
| Kanoa Igarashi | 13 | 9 | 22 | 11 | |||||
| Ace Buchan | 13 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 2 | 84 | 12 |
| Frederico Morais | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||||
| Connor O'Leary | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||||
| Ian Gouvea | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||||
| Patrick Gudauskas | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||||
| Jeremy Flores | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 101 | 14.43 |
| Wiggolly Dantas | 13 | 25 | 9 | 47 | 15.67 | ||||
| Jadson Andre | 13 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 94 | 15.67 | |
| Julian Wilson | 25 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 25 | 9 | 115 | 16.43 |
| Kolohe Andino | 13 | 13 | 2 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 103 | 17.17 | |
| Miguel Pupo | 13 | 13 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 106 | 17.67 | |
| Alejo Muniz | 25 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 106 | 17.67 | |
| Matt Wilkinson | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 131 | 18.71 |
| Ezekiel Lau | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||||||
| Joan Duru | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||||||
| Jesse Mendes | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||||||
| Conner Coffin | 25 | 25 | 50 | 25 | |||||
| Bino Lopes | 25 | 25 | 50 | 25 |