❮ Back

Meo Rip Curl Pro Portugal Projections

Meo Rip Curl Pro Portugal Projections

Last updated October 16, 2016 by Surf-Stats

*Please note that wildcard Frederico Morais’ data is based purely on his scores from the 2015 Portugal contest (in which he was a quarterfinalist) and his AHS for the 2016 QS season. His projections are not entirely reliable for this reason.

This data takes the 2014/2015/2016 results into consideration and give a slight weighting to 2016 form within the projections. Many of the less experienced surfers (less reliable data) have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by this season’s results and having no previous experience at this event.

Don’t just rely on our projections; we suggest that you sort through the columns yourselves and pick out the elements that you believe to be of most importance. Remember, this data is only from 2014/15/16.

Our full Portugal event article will be up soon. Until then, have fun playing with your teams, and don’t forget to sign up to our WSL Surf-Stats group (password – SS) or the Fantasy Surfer Surf-Stats clubhouse (password – SS).

Portugal Projections

AHS = average heat score,
EATP = event average total points (WSL game),
EAHS = event average heat score,
Prev AHS = average heat score from previous contest,
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Beach = average heat score in conditions offering beach break waves,
LEFT/RIGHT = average heat score in conditions offering both left- and right-hander waves,
PROJ SCORE = total projected score for the event (WSL game)

NAME	AET	EAHS	2016 AHS	AHS	Prev AHS	1-4'	4-6'	6-8'	Beach	Left/Right	Proj Score
Frederico Morais			13.50			14.31	14.96		14.47		131.65
John John Florence	69.55	13.82	14.75	14.20	15.41	13.81	13.82	13.55	13.48	13.42	128.86
Gabriel Medina	59.48	12.44	14.61	14.08	13.49	14.19	14.46	13.99	13.71	13.69	105.56
Filipe Toledo	99.03	13.62	13.17	12.73	13.99	14.84	13.71	9.94	13.55	14.02	102.55
Adriano De Souza	63.03	13.43	12.18	12.98	13.10	13.09	13.22	13.57	14.22	13.95	83.89
Italo Ferreira			13.23	13.14	10.63	13.93	13.55	13.53	13.16	13.48	82.41
Ryan Callinan			12.03	12.63	13.29	13.47	11.23	13.52	13.30	13.10	80.77
Jordy Smith	56.29	13.52	13.54	12.40	10.33	13.91	12.88	12.34	11.53	13.54	80.32
Kolohe Andino	52.07	12.51	13.49	12.16	13.02	12.67	13.43	11.67	12.52	12.49	63.23
Joel Parkinson	56.48	11.88	13.56	13.14	8.61	14.07	14.01	12.85	11.21	13.02	62.11
Conner Coffin			11.77	12.13	13.29	11.68	12.30	12.28	12.49	12.17	61.31
Jack Freestone			11.53	12.38	10.66	12.97	11.97		12.97	12.88	60.98
Kelly Slater	39.70	11.32	13.66	13.87	8.58	13.47	13.75	13.68	10.12	11.84	46.21
Sebastian Zietz	39.85	12.60	13.22	12.06	11.56	11.82	11.87	13.03	10.97	11.49	46.06
Julian Wilson	19.58	9.79	12.62	12.53	11.30	13.39	12.87	14.14	12.05	12.54	45.99
Josh Kerr	66.05	14.11	12.22	11.87	8.57	13.75	12.05	11.42	11.12	11.29	45.79
Davey Cathels			11.52	12.22	14.07	11.76	11.24	11.75	11.89	11.48	45.56
Nat Young	45.00	12.19	12.33	12.32	10.88	12.38	11.95	12.72	11.19	11.33	45.40
Matt Wilkinson	36.75	14.33	11.99	11.20	11.08	12.55	11.90	9.19	11.33	11.26	33.07
Caio Ibelli			11.68	11.59	12.14	12.60	11.59	11.52	11.52	12.08	32.86
Wiggolly Dantas	22.64	11.32	13.11	11.34	10.57	13.81	10.88	11.43	11.34	11.68	32.41
Stuart Kennedy			11.44	11.44	10.79	13.06	11.41	11.89	11.22	11.88	32.31
Jeremy Flores	48.02	10.92	12.85	12.30	7.97	13.68	12.36	12.66	10.97	11.73	32.28
Kai Otton	50.59	10.27	12.18	11.89	12.47	11.93	12.35	11.64	11.70	11.63	32.28
Keanu Asing			11.47	10.95	13.03	12.29	11.45	10.46	11.43	11.15	20.75
Adrian Buchan	13.70	6.85	13.13	11.96	12.33	10.68	13.15	13.41	12.31	13.15	20.49
Miguel Pupo	32.52	11.78	11.33	11.03	10.62	12.07	11.54	10.21	11.33	11.11	20.30
Dusty Payne			11.48	10.54	10.45	12.78	11.96	10.72	10.88	11.36	20.29
Kanoa Igarashi			11.19	12.51	8.28	12.88	10.17	11.41	10.76	11.98	20.06
Alejo Muniz	16.08	10.72	10.60	10.57	11.68	13.36	11.03	10.82	10.94	10.95	20.05
Adam Melling	41.85	9.93	11.73	11.13	10.16	11.08	11.46	13.00	11.16	11.76	18.93
Jadson Andre	29.20	10.12	12.13	11.66	8.10	12.14	12.44	10.75	11.00	11.55	18.70
Matt Banting			10.74	11.25	10.24	12.24	11.34	10.82	10.10	10.38	18.51
Michel Bourez	45.53	9.11	12.05	11.33	9.62	12.13	11.52	11.29	10.56	11.05	18.32
Alex Ribeiro			9.53	8.09	8.67	11.62	5.84	9.34	7.21	8.62	14.64

Rip Curl Portugal FS Data

*n.b.: surfers values given at current market value

Name	$ Value	Proj AHS	Proj Score	$1000/point
Frederico Morais	1500000	14.31	250	6.00
John John Florence	10250000	14.01	175	58.57
Gabriel Medina	12250000	13.71	151	81.13
Filipe Toledo	9500000	13.32	150	63.33
Adriano De Souza	9250000	13.32	128	72.27
Italo Ferreira	7250000	13.08	127	57.09
Ryan Callinan	3250000	12.82	126	25.79
Jordy Smith	7500000	12.75	125	60.00
Kolohe Andino	6000000	12.65	103	58.25
Joel Parkinson	5750000	12.42	102	56.37
Conner Coffin	3500000	12.26	101	34.65
Jack Freestone	3500000	12.20	100	35.00
Kelly Slater	6750000	12.16	86	78.49
Sebastian Zietz	1500000	12.12	85	17.65
Julian Wilson	8500000	12.10	84	101.19
Josh Kerr	6000000	12.05	83	72.29
Davey Cathels	3250000	11.99	82	39.63
Nat Young	5000000	11.95	81	61.73
Matt Wilkinson	6250000	11.92	80	78.13
Caio Ibelli	5250000	11.84	79	66.46
Wiggolly Dantas	4750000	11.68	78	60.90
Stuart Kennedy	1500000	11.64	77	19.48
Jeremy Flores	4000000	11.63	76	52.63
Kai Otton	4250000	11.63	75	56.67
Keanu Asing	4000000	11.53	47	85.11
Adrian Buchan	5750000	11.38	46	125.00
Miguel Pupo	4500000	11.28	45	100.00
Dusty Payne	1500000	11.27	44	34.09
Kanoa Igarashi	5000000	11.15	43	116.28
Alejo Muniz	4250000	11.14	42	101.19
Adam Melling	1500000	11.13	41	36.59
Jadson Andre	3500000	11.00	40	87.50
Matt Banting	3750000	10.89	39	96.15
Michel Bourez	4750000	10.78	38	125.00
Alex Ribeiro	3500000	8.61

Rip Curl Portugal Past Results

All results for 9th place and better from the previous 5 years at the Rip Curl Portugal contest

year	winner	runner-up	semis (=3rd)	quarters (=5th)	R5 (=9th)
2015	Filipe Toledo	Italo Ferriera	Brett Simpson Vasco Ribeiro	Joel Parkinson Frederico Morais Jeremy Flores Gabriel Medina	Kolohe Andino Nat Young Michel Bourez Keanu Asing
2014	Mick Fanning	Jordy Smith	John John Florence Kai Otton	Adam Melling Adriano de Souza Josh Kerr Filipe Toledo	Brett Simpson Bede Durbidge Aritz Aranburu Michel Bourez
2013	Kai Otton	Nat Young	Josh Kerr Joel Parkinson	Julian Wilson Jordy Smith Mick Fanning CJ Hobgood	Matt Wilkinson John John Florence Taj Burrow Miguel Pupo
2012	Julian Wilson	Gabriel Medina	Joel Parkinson Adriano de Souza	Josh Kerr John John Florence Jeremy Flores Owen Wright	Kolohe Andino Ace Buchan Mick Fanning Raoni Monteiro
2011	Adriano de Souza	Kelly Slater	Taj Burrow Bede Durbidge	Julian Wilson Heitor Alves Michel Bourez Joel Parkinson	Chris Davidson Damien Hobgood Freddy Patacchia John John Florence

Portugal Surfers' Event History

Surfer	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total	Average
Filipe Toledo			1.75	5.2	10	16.95	5.65
Adriano de Souza	10	6.5	1.75	5.2	1.75	25.2	5.04
Joel Parkinson	5.2	6.5	6.5	1.75	5.2	25.15	5.03
John John Florence	4	5.2	4	6.5	1.75	21.45	4.29
Julian Wilson	5.2	10	5.2	0.5	0.5	21.4	4.28
Nat Young			8	0.5	4	12.5	4.17
Kai Otton	1.75	1.75	10	6.5	0.5	20.5	4.10
Josh Kerr	1.75	5.2	6.5	5.2	1.75	20.4	4.08
Jordy Smith	1.75	0.5	5.2	8		15.45	3.86
Gabriel Medina	1.75	8	0.5	1.75	5.2	17.2	3.44
Michel Bourez	5.2	1.75	1.75	4	4	16.7	3.34
Jeremy Flores		5.2	0.5	0.5	5.2	11.4	2.85
Kelly Slater	8	1.75	0.5	1.75	1.75	13.75	2.75
Kolohe Andino		4	0.5	1.75	4	10.25	2.56
Matt Wilkinson	1.75	0.5	4	0.5	1.75	8.5	1.70
Miguel Pupo	0.5	0.5	4	1.75	0.5	7.25	1.45
Alejo Muniz	0.5	1.75	1.75	1.75		5.75	1.44
Ace Buchan	0.5	4	0.5	0.5	0.5	6	1.20
Jadson Andre	0.5	0.5		1.75	0.5	3.25	0.81

Round / Placing / Value:
Final (win) / 1st / 10
Final (lose) / 2nd / 8
Semis / 3rd / 6.5
Quarters / 5th / 5.2
R5 / 9th / 4
R3 / 13th / 1.75
R2 / 25th / 0.5
Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour

See all articles