Hold on to your breakfast,  this is a bumpy road already and the Heat Draw is primed to become a mad house.  Here’s the IN’s and OUT’s so far…

Jordy Smith (Back) OUT:  3 October, 2015 – Smith has finally withdrawn from France.  His nagging back injury will likely keep him out of 2015 until Pipeline at the earliest,  but don’t expect him back by then.  It’ll be last minute withdraws the rest of the year,  most likely.

Matt Banting (Knee) OUT:  3 October, 2015 – Matt Banting joins Jordy Smith in the INJ Withdrawn club.  That’s disappointing for Banting,  who certainly looked like he would be healthy in time,  but some minor rehab setbacks wouldn’t allow it.  Look for him in Portugal,  but monitor the situation moving forward as he’s still considered questionable.

Aritz Aranburu will replace one of the two while Jack Freestone or Caio Ibelli – pending invitation acceptance – will supplement Dane Reynolds as Wild Card or fill the second INJ Replacement spot.

Freddy Patacchia (Retired) OUT:  10 September, 2015 –  Freddy P grabbed a solid score and called it a day.  Then called it a career after his R1 win at the 2015 Hurley Pro Trestles.  Hanging up the jersey after 11 solid years on tour,  Patacchia turns the page on a new chapter.  We wish you well,  Freddy!  Unless something drastically changes,  Patacchia will no longer be competing on the WSL CT.  For France,  he is replaced by Alejo Muniz.

Taj Burrow (Paternity) OUT:  6 July, 2015 –  Taj has called himself off for both European events of the tour this year,  opting to be home for the birth of his first grom.  With his elusive first World Title out of reach in 2015,  we can’t argue with the decision.  Look for TB back in the lineup at the Pipe Masters this December,  in the meantime he will be replaced by Tomas Hermes.

Kelly Slater (Mild Nagging Injuries) PROBABLE:  19 September, 2015 – Kelly has done this to us before (remember his “retirement”  in April?) –  so there’s no reason to fret.  He enjoys stirring the pot and has been known to kick up dust,  but it always settles – Kelly very,  very rarely misses an opportunity to compete if he is healthy.  If the forecast starts looking good for France,  expect Slater to be surfing.  The risk lies in that forecast,  though,  because if it’s anything but promising,  he is much more likely to sit it out.

Matt Banting (Knee) PROBABLE:  14 September, 2015 – Banting was mentioned in Quiksilver’s Instagram post as being likely to suit up for France:

We do think that Banting is actually probable for France,  but mainly based on the nature of his injury and average time of recovery.  Quiksilver is the event sponsor,  Banting is a Quiksilver Team Rider and there is definitely a marketing tactic in play with this post.  That’s why we won’t take it at face value for a second.  He’s cleared his initial 3-6 dry weeks and started some rehab already,  so we think that’s a much better indication for a probable start.

Jordy Smith (Back) DOUBTFUL:  19 September, 2015 – Jordy Smith has shown absolutely no sign of motivation to return to the CT this year.  We’ll have him listed as Doubtful until something changes,  but look for him to withdraw from France.  As of now,  there is no clear replacement for if/when that happens.