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Data and Projections - Margaret River Pro 2017

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Data and Projections - Margaret River Pro 2017

Last updated March 24, 2017 by Surf-Stats


* These tables have been changed since Italo’s official withdrawal, with his data having been removed. Nat Young’s data was already in the tables, so it was not added.

Please note also that previous local wildcard surfers Jacob Wilcox, Jay Davies and Jack Robinson have also had their metrics added to allow for any last- minute entries once the trials have been run.

The above two factors have resulted in our tables having models for more than 36 surfers, which is not possible in a WSL contest. Please view the projections accordingly.

We have added the 2017 data to our models, but beware: it’s based on a single, sand-bottom, right-hander point-break. It’s value may not translate well to the Margaret River Pro conditions.

These projections and statistics use the 2014-2017 contest data. 2017 rookies include some data from previous WSL events where applicable and some data from the 2016 WQS. This means that they have much less reliable modelling and have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by their small sample size. Many also have no previous data that is specific to this event or its conditions.

MOST MPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions columns that you deem most relevant and pick out the data that you believe to be of most importance.

Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.

Our full event article will be live soon. Until then, have fun playing with your teams.


Margaret River Pro Projections

AET = average event total (WSL game points),
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons)
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Reefs = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Right/Left = average heat score in conditions offering both right-and-left-hander waves,
PROJ SCORE = total projected score for the event (WSL game)
NAMEProj AHSAETEAHS2017 AHSAHS1-4'4-6'6-8'ReefsRightsLeftsRight / LeftProj Score
John John Florence14.876.0116.0115.3714.4714.0813.8214.9314.9814.7214.8614.13136.16
Mick Fanning13.9928.4412.7314.1414.1915.2513.2114.1713.3115.1912.7614.39128.70
Kelly Slater13.9470.2313.0513.4613.8113.5113.6414.8614.8113.6615.4113.14107.33
Gabriel Medina13.8559.1211.415.2114.2614.2514.414.2714.3214.2814.8913.84106.64
Julian Wilson13.586.614.4915.7513.2613.8912.8214.4913.214.412.0612.5285.05
Ethan Ewing13.3814.3213.8514.3214.3284.29
Joan Duru13.3213.4714.1613.4712.5114.8483.91
Joel Parkinson13.2875.9713.2214.6913.3914.2313.6113.0212.7714.4612.1612.3383.66
Owen Wright13.0947.511.8914.3913.5913.4912.312.213.7113.7414.3412.4865.45
Adriano De Souza12.8772.0413.2914.6313.2913.5312.912.8511.941411.413.0964.35
Leonardo Fioravanti12.8685.9113.9111.8911.7813.0910.9813.9913.9112.4912.2364.3
Jeremy Flores12.8348.9213.2914.5812.8513.9412.312.0712.8912.9412.5812.0864.15
Jordy Smith12.7264.0912.6213.0812.6313.6513.0713.3711.713.799.0213.5748.33
Ezekiel Lau12.6813.3412.8813.3413.3448.18
Nat Young12.4791.313.7411.812.1412.2311.7612.9912.2312.7711.3311.9947.38
Frederico Morais12.3913.4413.1513.0413.2710.7213.4413.2712.7147.08
Filipe Toledo12.3529.9911.7313.4412.8214.3813.539.6310.7713.9810.4314.0446.93
Sebastian Zietz12.3274.3712.8614.2712.4812.4611.5812.381213.1511.0411.5346.81
Jay Davies12.352.5711.8912.2413.1710.9612.5113.5111.3212.0534.13
Adrian Buchan12.2245.4911.2814.712.4911.6212.9912.7612.2312.7412.5811.4133.91
Connor O'Leary12.1712.1412.512.1412.1433.77
Caio Ibelli12.0881.1413.5213.6612.213.0611.3111.5211.3112.9310.0311.9333.52
Kolohe Andino11.9444.8410.0511.0211.8512.2213.2411.7211.7112.0212.5912.6633.13
Wiggolly Dantas11.9434.7613.741211.3513.0510.5511.4310.2613.4610.0811.3733.13
Conner Coffin11.8823.8911.9512.6612.3512.1312.2612.2810.7413.159.7712.0421.38
Josh Kerr11.8866.3512.0510.7211.5713.0611.9311.6111.5411.7411.5111.8621.38
Ian Gouveia11.8711.4212.2711.4211.4221.36
Michel Bourez11.7275.3212.7511.7411.4512.0411.5511.1411.212.710.0510.7721.09
Jack Freestone11.712.3412.4312.8211.9210.1612.669.413.0121.06
Jadson Andre11.4423.110.712.1511.7312.1512.3510.710.6112.2811.1211.5520.59
Jacob Wilcox11.3526.1314.1110.148.1813.0713.076.4713.0719.29
Kanoa Igarashi11.2742.9314.318.3911.1410.4810.5511.4110.769.989.911.7119.15
Matt Wilkinson11.1533.751015.0412.0512.9911.8410.249.3613.269.3811.718.95
Stuart Kennedy11.1522.4711.2412.3911.6312.5710.7511.899.2612.669.7711.1318.95
Bede Durbidge11.1537.6110.3214.0911.6714.4211.5119.5913.979.2611.4618.95
Jack Robinson11.0524.0713.2910.4112.2710.415.0612.2718.78
Miguel Pupo10.9743.410.3213.6911.7112.5511.559.99.5412.79.0311.3618.64


Margaret River Pro FS

*Please be aware that many surfers' data does not draw on EAHS or Reef break statistics, hence many rookie projections could be considered unreliable.

*N.B. Nat Young's data has been added in case of injury replacement
NAME$ ValueProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
John John Florence1250000014.825050.00
Mick Fanning525000013.9917530.00
Kelly Slater950000013.9415162.91
Gabriel Medina1150000013.8515076.67
Julian Wilson800000013.512862.50
Ethan Ewing300000013.3812723.62
Joan Duru300000013.3212623.81
Joel Parkinson850000013.2812568.00
Owen Wright800000013.0910377.67
Adriano De Souza775000012.8710275.98
Leonardo Fioravanti300000012.8610129.70
Jeremy Flores325000012.8310032.50
Jordy Smith1100000012.7286127.91
Ezekiel Lau325000012.688538.24
Nat Young150000012.478417.86
Frederico Morais375000012.398345.18
Filipe Toledo700000012.358285.37
Sebastian Zietz725000012.328189.51
Jay Davies150000012.38018.75
Adrian Buchan575000012.227972.78
Connor O'Leary475000012.177860.90
Caio Ibelli575000012.087774.68
Kolohe Andino1000000011.9476131.58
Wiggolly Dantas400000011.947553.33
Conner Coffin600000011.8847127.66
Josh Kerr625000011.8846135.87
Ian Gouveia325000011.874572.22
Michel Bourez850000011.7244193.18
Jack Freestone300000011.74369.77
Jadson Andre325000011.444277.38
Jacob Wilcox150000011.354136.59
Kanoa Igarashi400000011.2740100.00
Matt Wilkinson1075000011.1539275.64
Stuart Kennedy500000011.1538131.58
Bede Durbidge300000011.153781.08
Jack Robinson150000011.053740.54
Miguel Pupo425000010.9737114.86


Margaret River Past Results

YearWinnerRunner-upSemis (=3rd)Quarters (=5th)R5 (=9th)
2016Sebastian ZietzJulian WilsonJoel Parkinson
Italo Ferreira
Nat Young
Caio Ibelli
Kolohe Andino
Leonardo Fioravanti
Matt Wilkinson
Jordy Smith
Gabriel Medina
Adrian Buchan
2015Adriano de SouzaJohn John FlorenceTaj Burrow
Nat Young
Kelly Slater
Julian Wilson
Michel Bourez
Jay davies
Josh Kerr
Owen Wright
Sebastian Zietz
Jeremy Flores
2014Michel BourezJosh KerrKelly Slater
Bede Durbidge
Nat Young
Joel Parkinson
Gabriel Medina
Jordy Smith
Adriano de Souza
Filipe Toledo
Yadin Nichol
Miguel Pupo


Margaret River Event Placing Averages

Round Placing Points
Final (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5

*n.b. empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
Nat Young5.
Michel Bourez105.21.7516.955.65
Adriano de Souza4101.7515.755.25
Sebastian Zietz1.7541015.755.25
Caio Ibelli5.25.25.20
Leonardo Fioravanti5.25.25.20
Julian Wilson1.755.2814.954.98
Josh Kerr841.7513.754.58
Joel Parkinson5.21.756.513.454.48
Kelly Slater6.55.20.512.24.07
John John Florence1.7581.7511.53.83
Jordy Smith5.21.75410.953.65
Bede Durbidge6.50.573.50
Gabriel Medina5.20.549.73.23
Owen Wright1.7545.752.88
Jay Davies5.
Miguel Pupo41.751.757.52.50
Ace Buchan1.751.7547.52.50
Kolohe Andino1.750.55.27.452.48
Filipe Toledo40.54.52.25
Jeremy Flores0.541.756.252.08
Jadson Andre1.751.753.51.75
Mick Fanning1.751.753.51.75
Matt Wilkinson0.50.5451.67
Wiggolly Dantas0.51.752.251.13
Alejo Muniz0.50.51.752.750.92



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