Data and Projections - Bells 2017
Last updated April 10, 2017 by Surf-Stats
These projections and statistics use the 2014-2017 contest data. 2017 rookies include some data from previous WSL events where applicable and some data from the 2016 WQS. This means that they have much less reliable modelling and have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by their small sample size. Many also have no previous data that is specific to this event or its conditions.
MOST MPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions columns that you deem most relevant and pick out the data that you believe to be of most importance.
Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.
We will try to get a full event article live soon, but the turn-around for Bells is very short…
Bells Projections
AET = average event total (WSL game points),EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons)
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Points= average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
PROJ SCORE = total projected score for the event (WSL game)
| NAME | Proj AHS | AET | EAHS | 2017 AHS | ALL AHS | 1-4' | 4-6' | 6-8' | Points | Rights | Proj Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John John Florence | 14.51 | 63.78 | 13.86 | 16.72 | 14.81 | 14.08 | 13.78 | 15.95 | 14.28 | 15.09 | 133.48 |
| Mick Fanning | 14.36 | 119.48 | 14.43 | 12.43 | 13.76 | 15.25 | 11.58 | 14.17 | 15.22 | 14.76 | 132.09 |
| Joel Parkinson | 13.74 | 70.04 | 13.66 | 12.86 | 12.93 | 14.23 | 12.38 | 13.02 | 14.65 | 14.12 | 105.81 |
| Jordy Smith | 13.72 | 99.16 | 14.02 | 13.57 | 12.76 | 13.65 | 13.63 | 13.37 | 13.96 | 13.93 | 105.65 |
| Julian Wilson | 13.65 | 74.38 | 14.02 | 13.85 | 12.78 | 13.89 | 12.01 | 14.49 | 13.91 | 13.77 | 86.02 |
| Gabriel Medina | 13.63 | 61.51 | 12.52 | 11.67 | 13.37 | 14.25 | 12.62 | 14.27 | 14.58 | 13.78 | 85.84 |
| Kelly Slater | 13.56 | 66.36 | 13.29 | 11.52 | 13.33 | 13.51 | 12.25 | 14.86 | 14.11 | 13.42 | 85.42 |
| Filipe Toledo | 13.36 | 42.24 | 14.36 | 12.82 | 12.67 | 14.38 | 12.3 | 9.63 | 14.21 | 13.74 | 84.16 |
| Owen Wright | 13.15 | 83.56 | 13.19 | 13.23 | 13.2 | 13.49 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 14.13 | 13.42 | 65.73 |
| Adriano De Souza | 13.13 | 80.8 | 11.75 | 14.31 | 13.21 | 13.53 | 12.3 | 12.85 | 14.03 | 13.91 | 65.63 |
| Bede Durbidge | 13.11 | 25.84 | 15.17 | 12.18 | 11.19 | 14.42 | 9.46 | 11 | 14.16 | 13.2 | 65.56 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 12.93 | 42.24 | 13.59 | 14.38 | 12.51 | 12.46 | 12.33 | 12.38 | 13.03 | 13.18 | 64.64 |
| Joan Duru | 12.92 | 10.87 | 12.86 | 13.47 | 12.51 | 13.47 | 11.31 | 49.09 | |||
| Jack Freestone | 12.82 | 12.16 | 12.37 | 12.82 | 11.23 | 12.66 | 12.57 | 48.71 | |||
| Nat Young | 12.66 | 73.48 | 13.13 | 12.14 | 12.23 | 12.23 | 11.82 | 12.99 | 12.64 | 12.87 | 48.1 |
| Conner Coffin | 12.62 | 92.03 | 15.04 | 11.52 | 11.97 | 12.13 | 8.7 | 12.28 | 12.96 | 12.58 | 47.97 |
| Jeremy Flores | 12.46 | 35.17 | 10.93 | 14.43 | 12.82 | 13.94 | 12.51 | 12.07 | 12.78 | 12.9 | 47.33 |
| Connor O'Leary | 12.22 | 12.02 | 12.44 | 12.14 | 12.4 | 12.14 | 12.05 | 46.44 | |||
| Frederico Morais | 12.21 | 11.45 | 12.48 | 13.04 | 9.98 | 13.44 | 11.44 | 33.89 | |||
| Wiggolly Dantas | 12.17 | 54.99 | 12.49 | 9.56 | 10.74 | 13.05 | 9.23 | 11.43 | 13.49 | 12.64 | 33.77 |
| Adrian Buchan | 12.17 | 27.39 | 11.56 | 13.05 | 12.07 | 11.62 | 11.3 | 12.76 | 13.15 | 12.24 | 33.76 |
| Kolohe Andino | 12.16 | 28.71 | 11.49 | 12.52 | 12.22 | 12.22 | 12.12 | 12.19 | 12.48 | 12.47 | 33.75 |
| Caio Ibelli | 12.11 | 66.7 | 11.65 | 12.66 | 11.87 | 13.06 | 10.23 | 11.52 | 13 | 12.53 | 33.59 |
| Ethan Ewing | 12.07 | 11.65 | 12.52 | 14.32 | 5.17 | 14.32 | 11.65 | 33.48 | |||
| Michel Bourez | 11.99 | 41.15 | 10.65 | 12.88 | 11.74 | 12.04 | 11.9 | 11.14 | 12.78 | 13.11 | 21.58 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 11.97 | 59.94 | 11.3 | 11.26 | 11.11 | 12.99 | 9.66 | 10.24 | 13.79 | 12.79 | 21.55 |
| Ezekiel Lau | 11.97 | 11.67 | 12.05 | 13.34 | 7 | 13.34 | 12.01 | 21.55 | |||
| Ian Gouveia | 11.91 | 11.76 | 12.44 | 11.42 | 12.5 | 11.42 | 11.69 | 21.45 | |||
| Jadson Andre | 11.78 | 33.91 | 12.18 | 9.99 | 11.19 | 12.15 | 10.46 | 10.7 | 12.73 | 11.74 | 21.2 |
| Josh Kerr | 11.75 | 47.36 | 11.22 | 8.2 | 10.94 | 13.06 | 11.93 | 11.61 | 11.96 | 11.79 | 21.15 |
| Leonardo Fioravanti | 11.53 | 9.91 | 10.79 | 13.09 | 5.99 | 13.99 | 11.89 | 11.5 | 19.6 | ||
| Miguel Pupo | 11.34 | 28.75 | 10.58 | 9.74 | 10.72 | 12.55 | 9.46 | 9.9 | 13.1 | 11.71 | 19.28 |
| Stuart Kennedy | 10.96 | 32.27 | 10.76 | 8.79 | 9.83 | 12.57 | 5.98 | 11.89 | 12.7 | 11.22 | 18.63 |
| Kanoa Igarashi | 10.17 | 39.24 | 11.21 | 8.43 | 11.16 | 10.48 | 6.16 | 11.41 | 10.03 | 10 | 17.29 |
Bells FS
| NAME | $ Value | Proj AHS | Proj Score | $1000/point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John John Florence | 12500000 | 14.51 | 250 | 50.00 |
| Mick Fanning | 4500000 | 14.36 | 175 | 25.71 |
| Joel Parkinson | 8000000 | 13.74 | 151 | 52.98 |
| Jordy Smith | 11000000 | 13.72 | 150 | 73.33 |
| Julian Wilson | 8250000 | 13.65 | 128 | 64.45 |
| Gabriel Medina | 10500000 | 13.63 | 127 | 82.68 |
| Kelly Slater | 9000000 | 13.56 | 126 | 71.43 |
| Filipe Toledo | 8000000 | 13.36 | 125 | 64.00 |
| Owen Wright | 8500000 | 13.15 | 103 | 82.52 |
| Adriano De Souza | 8250000 | 13.13 | 102 | 80.88 |
| Bede Durbidge | 3250000 | 13.11 | 101 | 32.18 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 7500000 | 12.93 | 100 | 75.00 |
| Joan Duru | 3000000 | 12.92 | 86 | 34.88 |
| Jack Freestone | 4000000 | 12.82 | 85 | 47.06 |
| Nat Young | 1500000 | 12.66 | 84 | 17.86 |
| Conner Coffin | 6250000 | 12.62 | 83 | 75.30 |
| Jeremy Flores | 3750000 | 12.46 | 82 | 45.73 |
| Connor O'Leary | 5000000 | 12.22 | 81 | 61.73 |
| Frederico Morais | 3250000 | 12.21 | 80 | 40.63 |
| Wiggolly Dantas | 3250000 | 12.17 | 79 | 41.14 |
| Adrian Buchan | 5500000 | 12.17 | 78 | 70.51 |
| Kolohe Andino | 11000000 | 12.16 | 77 | 142.86 |
| Caio Ibelli | 5500000 | 12.11 | 76 | 72.37 |
| Ethan Ewing | 3000000 | 12.07 | 75 | 40.00 |
| Michel Bourez | 9000000 | 11.99 | 47 | 191.49 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 9750000 | 11.97 | 46 | 211.96 |
| Ezekiel Lau | 3000000 | 11.97 | 45 | 66.67 |
| Ian Gouveia | 3500000 | 11.91 | 44 | 79.55 |
| Jadson Andre | 3000000 | 11.78 | 43 | 69.77 |
| Josh Kerr | 5500000 | 11.75 | 42 | 130.95 |
| Leonardo Fioravanti | 3000000 | 11.53 | 41 | 73.17 |
| Miguel Pupo | 4500000 | 11.34 | 40 | 112.50 |
| Stuart Kennedy | 4250000 | 10.96 | 39 | 108.97 |
| Kanoa Igarashi | 4250000 | 10.17 | 38 | 111.84 |
Bells Past Results - R5 onwards
| year | winner | runner-up | semis (=3rd) | quarters (=5th) | R5 (=9th) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Matt Wilkinson | Jordy Smith | Mick Fanning Italo Ferreira | Nat Young Wiggolly Dantas Conner Coffin Michel Bourez | Masonl Ho Julian Wilson Davey Cathels Caio Ibelli |
| 2015 | Mick Fanning | Adriano de Souza | Josh Kerr Nat Young | Gabriel Medina Owen Wright Jordy Smith Filipe Toledo | Kelly Slater Joel Parkinson Jadson Andre Jeremy Flores |
| 2014 | Mick Fanning | Taj Burrow | John John Florence Julian Wilson | Adriano de Souza Kelly Slater Joel Parkinson Owen Wright | Gabriel Medina Adam Melling Jordy Smith Freddy Patacchia Jr. |
| 2013 | Adriano de Souza | Nat Young | Taj Burrow Jordy Smith | Kai Otton Willian Cardoso Mick Fanning Filipe Toledo | Ace Buchan Josh Kerr Raoni Monteiro CJ Hobgood |
| 2012 | Mick Fanning | Kelly Slater | Jeremy Flores Joel Parkinson | Owen Wright Josh Kerr Kai Otton Jordy Smith | John John Florence Adriano de Souza Brett Simpson CJ Hobgood |
| 2011 | Joel Parkinson | Mick Fanning | Adriano de Souza Taj Burrow | Owen Wright Kelly Slater Chris Davidson Jadson Andre | Bede Durbidge CJ Hobgood Michel Bourez Tiago Pires |
Bells Detailed Event History
Round Placing PointsFinal (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5
*n.b. empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
| Surfer | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Total | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Fanning | 8 | 10 | 5.2 | 10 | 10 | 6.5 | 49.7 | 8.28 |
| Adriano de Souza | 6.5 | 4 | 10 | 5.2 | 8 | 1.75 | 35.45 | 5.91 |
| Jordy Smith | 6.5 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4 | 5.2 | 8 | 35.4 | 5.90 |
| Nat Young | 8 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 21.45 | 5.36 | ||
| Conner Coffin | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | |||||
| Joel Parkinson | 10 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 4 | 1.75 | 29.2 | 4.87 |
| Kelly Slater | 5.2 | 8 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 4 | 1.75 | 25.9 | 4.32 |
| Owen Wright | 5.2 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 21.3 | 4.26 | |
| Filipe Toledo | 5.2 | 1.75 | 5.2 | 12.15 | 4.05 | |||
| Caio Ibelli | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | |||||
| Italo Ferreira | 0.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 3.50 | ||||
| John John Florence | 4 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 14 | 3.50 | ||
| Josh Kerr | 1.75 | 5.2 | 4 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 19.7 | 3.28 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 10 | 17.5 | 2.92 |
| Wiggolly Dantas | 0.5 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 2.85 | ||||
| Julian Wilson | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 4 | 15 | 2.50 |
| Jeremy Flores | 1.75 | 6.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 15 | 2.50 |
| Gabriel Medina | 0.5 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 4 | 5.2 | 1.75 | 14.95 | 2.49 |
| Jadson Andre | 5.2 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 11.95 | 2.39 | |
| Bede Durbidge | 4 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 8 | 2.00 | ||
| Michel Bourez | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 11.2 | 1.87 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 7 | 1.75 | ||
| Stu Kennedy | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | |||||
| Kanoa Igarashi | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | |||||
| Ace Buchan | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 7.75 | 1.29 |
| Miguel Pupo | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 4.5 | 1.13 | ||
| Kolohe Andino | 1.75 | 0.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 1.13 | ||
| Jack Freestone | 0 | 0.00 |
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