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Contest Metrics - Trestles 2017

Contest Metrics - Trestles 2017

Last updated August 29, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

Hiroto’s data has been added to the tables and projections, however Evan had no relevant statistics to draw from.

Trestles AHS and Trestles average FS score available from the FS forum posts of fellow numbers man McCovey.

Full Contest Metrics

Key:

Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our magic algorithm,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Points = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on Proj AHS x estimated heat wins.

Surfer	AET	EAHS	2017 AHS	ALL AHS	1-4'	4-6'	6-8'	Points	Left/Right	Proj Score
Mick Fanning	89.86	15.38	13.86	14.12	15.48	13.18	14.58	15.52	14.40	134.77
Gabriel Medina	83.47	15.17	13.92	13.93	14.20	14.36	14.77	14.74	14.03	133.39
John John Florence	66.34	14.49	15.80	14.58	14.05	14.03	15.69	14.64	13.70	110.64
Filipe Toledo	94.10	16.56	13.46	12.83	14.62	13.30	11.56	15.10	13.63	109.33
Joan Duru			12.81	13.83	13.76	13.60	14.90	14.07	14.44	88.69
Jordy Smith	123.06	14.97	13.82	12.82	13.66	13.10	14.24	14.58	13.70	87.87
Frederico Morais			12.44	12.81	12.64	12.88	16.89	15.66	12.72	87.40
Joel Parkinson	101.20	14.68	13.36	13.06	14.21	13.54	13.05	14.69	12.81	86.90
Italo Ferreira	60.37	14.57	13.67	13.24	13.95	13.26	13.46	13.88	13.52	68.69
Adriano De Souza	78.82	14.13	13.74	13.07	13.54	13.43	12.98	14.06	13.96	68.51
Hiroto Ohhara	27.23	13.62		13.62		13.62		13.62		68.10
Owen Wright	74.84	14.18	14.14	13.29	13.63	12.74	12.98	14.12	13.58	67.79
Julian Wilson	32.34	11.18	14.54	12.95	13.94	12.94	14.68	13.84	12.75	49.39
Ezekiel Lau			11.75	11.75	13.18	11.97	13.85	14.17	12.93	49.36
Adrian Buchan	80.87	14.27	13.69	12.23	11.62	13.16	13.14	13.11	12.41	49.36
Wiggolly Dantas	66.00	14.54	12.42	11.45	13.39	11.15	12.65	14.35	12.48	49.24
Jeremy Flores	33.04	13.40	14.22	12.76	13.93	12.75	12.90	12.95	12.29	49.19
Bede Durbidge	35.66	14.26	12.51	11.28	14.34	11.56	11.51	14.22	12.01	48.79
Nat Young	52.94	14.13	12.20	12.24	12.40	11.86	13.04	12.92	12.70	35.55
Ian Gouveia			12.56	12.56	12.17	13.07	12.34	12.29	13.37	35.31
Kolohe Andino	45.04	12.93	12.65	12.26	12.35	13.09	12.11	12.68	12.63	35.16
Conner Coffin	35.33	11.78	13.12	12.50	12.02	11.82	13.71	14.03	11.96	34.66
Michel Bourez	58.89	14.06	13.47	11.88	11.78	12.24	11.92	13.35	10.50	34.28
Connor O'Leary			12.25	12.25	12.27	12.04	13.75	11.86	12.37	34.17
Matt Wilkinson	28.84	12.36	12.67	11.46	12.57	11.98	11.56	13.69	11.85	22.15
Jack Freestone	43.44	12.42	11.52	12.16	12.57	11.97	11.35	13.12	11.93	22.09
Jadson Andre	41.94	13.98	11.03	11.45	11.95	12.03	10.75	12.57	11.61	22.02
Leonardo Fioravanti			12.00	11.83	12.69	11.49	14.10	12.97	11.25	22.01
Stuart Kennedy	84.55	13.19	11.08	10.97	12.89	10.52	11.72	13.11	12.57	21.99
Caio Ibelli	37.39	12.46	11.66	11.53	12.45	11.37	13.03	13.55	11.21	21.96
Miguel Pupo	60.92	14.06	10.58	10.93	12.48	10.80	10.42	12.99	11.78	20.57
Josh Kerr	37.01	12.34	10.16	11.43	13.35	11.69	11.19	12.19	12.27	20.55
Sebastian Zietz	22.11	11.06	12.87	12.13	12.14	11.86	12.75	12.98	11.47	20.36
Kanoa Igarashi	42.94	12.17	10.22	11.75	12.21	10.77	8.10	11.56	12.77	19.56
Ethan Ewing			10.26	10.26	11.14	10.05	8.84	12.76	7.96	17.33

Fantasy Surfer Data

Key:

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
$ Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score

NAME	Value	Prev. Value	$ Change	AVG Pts	High Pts	Proj AHS	Proj Score	$1000/point
Mick Fanning	5250000	5750000	-500000	96	127	14.65	250	21.00
Gabriel Medina	10750000	10000000	750000	112	175	14.50	175	61.43
John John Florence	11000000	11000000	0	138	250	14.37	151	72.85
Filipe Toledo	7250000	8000000	-750000	114	250	14.20	150	48.33
Joan Duru	5000000	4250000	750000	79	126	14.08	128	39.06
Jordy Smith	11750000	11250000	500000	137	250	13.95	127	92.52
Frederico Morais	4750000	5500000	-750000	90	175	13.87	126	37.70
Joel Parkinson	8000000	8750000	-750000	107	150	13.79	125	64.00
Italo Ferreira	5000000	4750000	250000	99	126	13.74	103	48.54
Adriano De Souza	7750000	8500000	-750000	121	250	13.70	102	75.98
Hiroto Ohhara	1500000	1500000	0			13.62	101	14.85
Owen Wright	9500000	9000000	500000	131	250	13.56	100	95.00
Julian Wilson	10250000	9250000	1000000	129	250	13.00	86	119.19
Ezekiel Lau	3000000	3250000	-250000	69	150	12.99	85	35.29
Adrian Buchan	4750000	4250000	500000	83	175	12.99	84	56.55
Wiggolly Dantas	4500000	3750000	750000	76	125	12.96	83	54.22
Jeremy Flores	5000000	4750000	250000	89	175	12.94	82	60.98
Bede Durbidge	5000000	4750000	250000	82	126	12.84	81	61.73
Nat Young	1500000	1500000	0	68	85	12.81	80	18.75
Ian Gouveia	3250000	3000000	250000	73	101	12.72	79	41.14
Kolohe Andino	8500000	7750000	750000	96	175	12.67	78	108.97
Conner Coffin	5000000	4500000	500000	76	103	12.49	77	64.94
Michel Bourez	8000000	8750000	-750000	89	151	12.35	76	105.26
Connor O'Leary	5750000	5250000	500000	102	175	12.31	75	76.67
Matt Wilkinson	10750000	11000000	-250000	99	250	12.30	47	228.72
Jack Freestone	3000000	3250000	-250000	64	150	12.27	46	65.22
Jadson Andre	3000000	3250000	-250000	58	84	12.23	45	66.67
Leonardo Fioravanti	3250000	4000000	-750000	62	127	12.23	44	73.86
Stuart Kennedy	3000000	3000000	0	55	102	12.22	43	69.77
Caio Ibelli	4250000	5000000	-750000	89	175	12.20	42	101.19
Miguel Pupo	3000000	3000000	0	56	79	12.10	41	73.17
Josh Kerr	3000000	3250000	-250000	46	82	12.09	40	75.00
Sebastian Zietz	5750000	6500000	-750000	84	103	11.98	39	147.44
Kanoa Igarashi	3250000	3000000	250000	60	101	11.51	38	85.53
Ethan Ewing	3250000	3000000	250000	45	76	10.19	37	87.84

Surfers' Event History

Losing Round Values
Final (win) = 1st = 10
Final (lose) = 2nd = 8
Semi =3rd = 6.5
Quarters =5th = 5.2
R5 =9th = 4
R3 =13th = 1.75
R2 = 25th = 0.5

Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour

# = total/average from 2010-2016
* = old ASP 48-man event format
^ = places/values were too different; final positions recorded instead

Surfer	2006^	2007^	2008^	2009^	2010*	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	Total#	Average#
Jordy Smith		9th	9th	33rd	5.2		5.2	6.5	10		10	36.9	7.38
Mick Fanning	5th	17th	5th	1st	6.5	5.2	6.5	4	5.2	10	1.75	39.15	5.59
Stu Kennedy											5.2	5.2	5.20
Joel Parkinson	5th	33rd	9th	17th	0.5	5.2	8	1.75	5.2	5.2	8	33.85	4.84
Adriano de Souza	17th	17th	9th	5th	1.75	5.2	6.5	4	5.2	8	0.5	31.15	4.45
Owen Wright					5.2	8	0.5		4	4		21.7	4.34
Filipe Toledo								1.75	1.75	6.5	6.5	16.5	4.13
Gabriel Medina							4	1.75	5.2	6.5	1.75	19.2	3.84
Julian Wilson						6.5	4	8	1.75	1.75	0.5	22.5	3.75
Ace Buchan	17th	17th	33rd	17th	4	1.75	5.2	0.5	6.5	5.2	1.75	24.9	3.56
Wiggolly Dantas										5.2	1.75	6.95	3.48
Josh Kerr		9th		9th		5.2	4	5.2	0.5	1.75	4	20.65	3.44
Michel Bourez				5th	1.75	1.75	1.75	6.5	4	1.75	4	21.5	3.07
John John Florence						1.75	5.2	0.5	8	0.5	1.75	17.7	2.95
Italo Ferreira										4	1.75	5.75	2.88
Bede Durbidge	1st	17th	3rd	3rd	8	0.5	1.75	1.75	0.5	1.75		14.25	2.38
Nat Young								1.75	1.75	5.2	0.5	9.2	2.30
Miguel Pupo						0.5		0.5	4	4	1.75	10.75	2.15
Kolohe Andino							0.5	1.75	1.75	1.75	4	9.75	1.95
Kanoa Igarashi											1.75	1.75	1.75
Caio Ibelli											1.75	1.75	1.75
Conner Coffin											1.75	1.75	1.75
Jack Freestone											1.75	1.75	1.75
Jadson Andre					1.75	1.75	0.5		1.75	0.5	4	10.25	1.71
Jeremy Flores		3rd	3rd	17th	0.5	1.75	4	1.75	0.5	1.75	0.5	10.75	1.54
Matt Wilkinson					1.75	1.75	1.75	0.5	0.5	1.75	0.5	8.5	1.21
Sebastian Zietz								1.75	0.5	0.5	0.5	3.25	0.81
Hiroto Ohhara										0.5		0.5	0.50

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