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Contest Metrics - Rio Pro 2017

Contest Metrics - Rio Pro 2017

Last updated May 1, 2017 by Surf-Stats

Image: Kanoa proving that Saquarema isn’t just a left-hander

These projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

We have included some extra details in our FS table this event, including price changes and season points data.

Note also that the Rio Pro has changed venues for this season, rendering previous event data less reliable. All averages relating to event scores and fantasy points are drawn from the previous venue and should therefore be taken with a grain of salt. Fantasy Surfer regular and fellow stats connoisseur McCovey did some great research into the QS contests held at Saquarema, and came up with some interesting data, which we have included below as well as linked here. We have not checked nor verified his data, but he is generally bang-on with his research so we’re happy to rely on his numbers.

MOST MPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.

A full contest preview will be posted in a few days.

Rio Pro Projections

Key:
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event*,
EAHS = event average heat score*,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
Beachies = average heat score in conditions offering beach break waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering both left and right-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game)

NAME	Proj AHS	AET	EAHS	2017 AHS	ALL AHS	1-4'	4-6'	Beachies	Lefts	Lefts/Rights	Proj Score
John John Florence	14.24	73.77	12.9	16.83	14.84	14.08	14.14	14.16	14.86	14.13	130.97
Gabriel Medina	14.16	66.54	14.55	12.55	13.59	14.25	13.79	13.81	14.89	13.84	130.24
Joan Duru	14			12.23	13.54	13.47	12.51	14.84		14.84	107.82
Kelly Slater	13.49	63.17	12.48	12.18	13.49	13.51	13.16	12.42	15.41	13.14	103.89
Mick Fanning	13.43	38.56	10.92	13.67	14.07	15.25	13.05	13.83	12.76	14.39	84.6
Filipe Toledo	13.14	83.62	15.09	14.35	13.05	14.38	13.6	13.64	10.43	14.04	82.8
Frederico Morais	13.09			12.71	12.9	13.04	12.75	13.4	13.27	12.71	82.48
Owen Wright	13.07	49.66	12.08	13.92	13.21	13.49	12.74	12.48	14.34	12.48	82.35
Ezekiel Lau	12.86			12.93	12.93	13.34	12.29				64.28
Adriano De Souza	12.83	65.79	13.21	14.58	13.28	13.53	13.28	13.13	11.40	13.09	64.13
Jeremy Flores	12.57	31.12	12.79	14.74	12.89	13.94	12.84	11.73	12.58	12.08	62.87
Kolohe Andino	12.51	47.74	11.48	13.26	12.41	12.22	13.12	12.77	12.59	12.66	62.57
Joel Parkinson	12.5	43.39	11.76	13.54	13.1	14.23	13.56	11.59	12.16	12.33	47.49
Julian Wilson	12.44	26.83	11.04	14.83	13.03	13.89	12.91	12.23	12.06	12.52	47.28
Ethan Ewing	12.42			12.25	12.25	14.32	10.69				47.19
Jordy Smith	12.25	50.8	12.55	14.61	13.02	13.65	13.85	12.78	9.02	13.57	46.54
Jack Freestone	12.14	110.67	13.83	12.79	12.58	12.82	12.11	13.03	9.40	13.01	46.12
Nat Young	11.94	52.98	12.15	12.78	12.39	12.23	12.16	11.95	11.33	11.99	45.38
Ian Gouveia	11.92			11.95	11.95	11.42	12.39				33.08
Bede Durbidge	11.9	96.82	13.46	13.15	11.44	14.42	11.66	13.08	9.26	11.46	33.03
Josh Kerr	11.9	52.63	11.93	9.95	11.38	13.06	12.31	11.77	11.51	11.86	33.02
Adrian Buchan	11.8	28.87	11.02	13.75	12.25	11.62	12.79	10.98	12.58	11.41	32.74
Connor O'Leary	11.75			11.7	11.7	12.14	11.41				32.6
Sebastian Zietz	11.68	47.76	11.56	14.39	12.51	12.46	12.44	11.28	11.04	11.53	32.41
Caio Ibelli	11.5	51.38	10.28	13.79	12.24	13.06	12.41	11.74	10.03	11.93	20.7
Jadson Andre	11.47	49.06	11.94	9.66	11.11	12.15	11.17	11.52	11.12	11.55	20.64
Wiggolly Dantas	11.45	34.41	13.05	11.52	11.23	13.05	11.04	11.59	10.08	11.37	20.61
Conner Coffin	11.38	22.57	11.29	12.81	12.4	12.13	11.26	11.88	9.77	12.04	20.48
Matt Wilkinson	11.23	47.26	11.71	11.79	11.24	12.99	11.29	11.69	9.38	11.7	20.21
Kanoa Igarashi	11.05	39.73	13.24	10.66	11.9	10.48	10.61	10.88	9.90	11.71	19.9
Leonardo Fioravanti	10.99	38.7	9.65	10.44	11.05	13.09	9.49	10.72		12.23	18.69
Miguel Pupo	10.94	39.6	10.87	11.19	11.08	12.55	11.28	11.62	9.03	11.36	18.6
Stuart Kennedy	10.84	35.84	11.95	10.16	10.51	12.57	9.87	10.97	9.77	11.13	18.42
Michel Bourez	10.67	75.92	7.75	13.8	11.97	12.04	12.24	10.57	10.05	10.77	18.13
Jesse Mendes	10.55			10.37	10.37		11.07			10.37	17.93

Rio Pro FS

Key:
Value Prev = surfer's price ($) for previous contest
Value = current price
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score

NAME	Value Prev	Value	Change	AVG Pts	High Pts	Proj AHS	Proj Score	$1000/point
John John Florence	12500000	12500000	0	184	250	14.24	250	50
Gabriel Medina	10500000	9750000	-750000	89	150	14.16	175	55.71
Joan Duru	3000000	3250000	250000	54	82	14	151	21.52
Kelly Slater	9000000	8500000	-500000	96	128	13.49	150	56.67
Mick Fanning	4500000	5250000	750000	85	127	13.43	128	41.02
Filipe Toledo	8000000	8500000	500000	106	151	13.14	127	66.93
Frederico Morais	3250000	4000000	750000	83	126	13.09	126	31.75
Owen Wright	8500000	8750000	250000	159	250	13.1	125	70
Ezekiel Lau	3000000	4000000	1000000	94	150	12.86	103	38.83
Adriano De Souza	8250000	8750000	500000	117	126	12.83	102	85.78
Jeremy Flores	3750000	4000000	250000	89	101	12.57	101	39.6
Kolohe Andino	11000000	10250000	-750000	117	175	12.51	100	102.5
Joel Parkinson	8000000	8250000	250000	101	127	12.5	86	95.93
Julian Wilson	8250000	7750000	-500000	91	102	12.44	85	91.18
Ethan Ewing	3000000	3000000	0	42	44	12.42	84	35.71
Jordy Smith	11000000	12000000	1000000	160	250	12.25	83	144.58
Jack Freestone	4000000	3250000	-750000	81	150	12.14	82	39.63
Nat Young	1500000	1500000	0	65	79	11.94	81	18.52
Ian Gouveia	3500000	3000000	-500000	69	83	11.92	80	37.5
Bede Durbidge	3250000	3500000	250000	69	86	11.9	79	44.3
Josh Kerr	5500000	4750000	-750000	39	41	11.9	78	60.9
Adrian Buchan	5500000	5250000	-250000	71	84	11.8	77	68.18
Connor O'Leary	5000000	5000000	0	93	125	11.75	76	65.79
Sebastian Zietz	7500000	7750000	250000	95	103	11.68	75	103.33
Caio Ibelli	5500000	6500000	1000000	112	175	11.5	47	138.3
Jadson Andre	3000000	3000000	0	51	77	11.47	46	65.22
Wiggolly Dantas	3250000	3750000	500000	60	102	11.45	45	83.33
Conner Coffin	6250000	5500000	-750000	83	103	11.38	44	125
Matt Wilkinson	9750000	9250000	-500000	98	175	11.23	43	215.12
Kanoa Igarashi	4250000	3500000	-750000	56	80	11.05	42	83.33
Leonardo Fioravanti	3000000	3000000	0	44	47	10.99	41	73.17
Miguel Pupo	4500000	3750000	-750000	66	79	10.94	40	93.75
Stuart Kennedy	4250000	3500000	-750000	51	76	10.84	39	89.74
Michel Bourez	9000000	8500000	0	85	127	10.67	38	223.68
Jesse Mendes	1500000	1500000	0	77	77	10.55	37	40.54

Rio Pro Event History

Round Placing Points
Final (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5

*n.b. empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour

Surfer	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	Total	Average
Jack Freestone					8	8	8
John John Florence	10		1.75	4	10	25.75	6.44
Michel Bourez	4	4	10		4	22	5.5
Italo Ferreira				6.5	4	10.5	5.25
Filipe Toledo		5.2	1.75	10	4	20.95	5.24
Adriano de Souza	5.2	8	4	1.75	6.5	25.45	5.09
Kelly Slater		5.2	6.5	1.75		13.45	4.48
Mick Fanning	6.5	6.5	0.5	4		17.5	4.38
Jordy Smith	4	10	5.2	0.5	1.75	21.45	4.29
Bede Durbidge	1.75	1.75	5.2	8		16.7	4.18
Caio Ibelli					4	4	4
Josh Kerr	6.5	1.75	4	5.2	0.5	17.95	3.59
Joel Parkinson	8	1.75	4	0.5		14.25	3.56
Sebastian Zietz		5.2	5.2	1.75	1.75	13.9	3.48
Gabriel Medina	0.5	6.5	1.75	1.75	6.5	17	3.4
Nat Young		4	5.2	1.75	1.75	12.7	3.18
Kolohe Andino	1.75	1.75	8	0.5	0.5	12.5	2.5
Owen Wright	1.75		0.5	5.2		7.45	2.48
Ace Buchan	1.75	5.2	1.75	1.75	0.5	10.95	2.19
Jadson Andre	0.5		1.75	5.2	0.5	7.95	1.99
Julian Wilson	5.2	1.75	1.75	0.5	0.5	9.7	1.94
Miguel Pupo	1.75	1.75	0.5	0.5	5.2	9.7	1.94
Stu Kennedy					1.75	1.75	1.75
Kanoa Igarashi					1.75	1.75	1.75
Leonardo Fioravanti					1.75	1.75	1.75
Matt Wilkinson	0.5	0.5	0.5	6.5	0.5	8.5	1.7
Jeremy Flores	4	1.75	0.5	1.75	0.5	8.5	1.7
Wiggolly Dantas				1.75	0.5	2.25	1.13
Conner Coffin					0.5	0.5	0.5

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