Contest Metrics - QuikPro GC 2018
Last updated March 8, 2018 by Balyn McDonald
Welcome back.
I may not have a brand new fantasy game ready to go for the first event of the year (dammit), but I still have plenty of stats.
In fact, I have back-logged all of the 2013 season into my databases so that all of the data and projections now draw from 5 full seasons of surf contests. Adding the 2013 season has not only added a greater quantitative scope to my averages, but it has also given me data on surfers such as Cardoso and Gudauskas, not to mention the old-but-new-again Keramas venue. I also went back through every season and refined my averages and statistics for greater accuracy.
I will also tweak the metrics as I go this season so that elements such as R1 success as well as event (5 years*) heat win percentages are available for analysis.
There will be one small concession though; I’m travelling light on the FS-specific data this year. This is simply because: a) it takes up a fair amount of extra time, which is a pretty tight commodity these days, and b) surf-stats will merge into Fantasy Surf Sessions as the year progresses, which will be a direct alternative to the FS game.
I know that FS is popular (I’ve personally played it for around 10 years), but it had to go. To make up for the cut, I’ve added the win% info, which will provide a fairly good gauge when crossed with Event AHS, Average Event Place and relevant conditions data.
Lastly, FSS had some very exciting news regarding prize sponsors today, which I’ll detail in my QuikPro preview article.
Enjoy trawling and tweaking, and good luck!
*all of our our heat score and win % statistics are taken from 2013-2017 WSL contest seasons. They do not reflect the entire careers of surfers who have been on tour longer than that.
A successful fantasy player never relies on past results or projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel balances the metrics as well as your gut. Remember also that, technically, your gut has shit for brains.
QuikPro GC Metrics
Key:Win % - percentage of heat wins from 2013-2017
AHS - average heat score across all heats 2013-2017
EAHS - AHS across all heats for this event 2013-2017
E.Heats - number of heats surfed at this event 2013-2017
1-4' - average heat score in wave heights 1-4' (2013-2017)
4-6' - average heat score in wave heights 4-6' (2013-2017)
Rights - average heat score in right-hander specific breaks (2013-2017)
Points - average heat score in point breaks (2013-2017)
Proj AHS - projected AHS based on the data presented in this table
Proj Score - projected score for the entire event using AHS and win percentage data
* rookie surfers with no WCT event experience have had their 2017 QS heat wins (total wins, not %) and AHS data added in the place of Win % and AHS values
| Surfer | Win % | AHS | EAHS | E.Heats | 1-4' | 4-6' | Rights | Points | Proj AHS | Proj Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Fanning | 62.61 | 13.53 | 15.63 | 20 | 14.94 | 13.74 | 15.32 | 15.5 | 13.51 | 118.89 |
| John John Florence | 66.2 | 14.68 | 14.11 | 15 | 14.27 | 14.65 | 15.47 | 15 | 13.28 | 116.82 |
| Joel Parkinson | 54.93 | 13 | 15.41 | 26 | 13.88 | 13.63 | 14.77 | 14.73 | 13.03 | 100.34 |
| Filipe Toledo | 52.41 | 13.17 | 14.17 | 20 | 14.9 | 13.46 | 14.56 | 15.49 | 13 | 100.08 |
| Willian Cardoso | 37.5 | 14.23 | 14.05 | 2 | 14.39 | 14.13 | 14.23 | 15.19 | 12.97 | 81.7 |
| Kelly Slater | 59.6 | 14.02 | 14.68 | 22 | 13.93 | 13.85 | 14.29 | 14.63 | 12.9 | 81.26 |
| Jordy Smith | 58.67 | 13.05 | 13.67 | 14 | 14.6 | 13.72 | 14.73 | 15.06 | 12.83 | 80.83 |
| Frederico Morais | 44.9 | 12.93 | 13.44 | 2 | 13.52 | 11.67 | 14.93 | 15.8 | 12.65 | 79.67 |
| Mikey Wright | 40 | 13.92 | 13.92 | 5 | 13.9 | 14.04 | 13.92 | 13.92 | 12.54 | 62.7 |
| Adriano de Souza | 56.48 | 13.09 | 13.78 | 26 | 14.17 | 13.29 | 14.14 | 14.4 | 12.52 | 62.59 |
| Gabriel Medina | 66.07 | 13.67 | 12.49 | 20 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 13.98 | 14.55 | 12.42 | 62.11 |
| Owen Wright | 49.63 | 13.45 | 13.92 | 15 | 13.77 | 13.85 | 13.55 | 14.06 | 12.41 | 62.07 |
| Julian Wilson | 55.87 | 12.59 | 13.53 | 17 | 13.95 | 12.98 | 14.06 | 14.19 | 12.31 | 48.01 |
| Italo Ferreira | 50.93 | 12.07 | 13.59 | 13 | 13.86 | 13.21 | 13.84 | 13.76 | 12.15 | 47.39 |
| Jeremy Flores | 42.14 | 12.8 | 13.74 | 14 | 13.92 | 12.43 | 13.39 | 13.57 | 12.06 | 47.02 |
| Joan Duru | 32.43 | 12.69 | 13.47 | 2 | 14.06 | 12.31 | 13.1 | 14.16 | 12.05 | 47 |
| Ezekiel Lau | 26.67 | 12.13 | 13.34 | 3 | 13.96 | 11.57 | 13.57 | 14.38 | 12.02 | 46.9 |
| Michel Bourez | 48.15 | 11.67 | 13.44 | 14 | 12.66 | 12.45 | 13.67 | 13.84 | 11.87 | 46.29 |
| Wade Carmichael | 0 | 9.18 | 13.5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 11.72 | 33.4 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 41.24 | 12.13 | 13.26 | 15 | 12.59 | 12.45 | 13.4 | 13.26 | 11.7 | 33.35 |
| Kolohe Andino | 46.45 | 12.52 | 13.1 | 19 | 12.89 | 12.98 | 12.67 | 13.1 | 11.61 | 33.1 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 44.77 | 11.13 | 13.86 | 23 | 12.84 | 11.59 | 12.89 | 13.47 | 11.6 | 33.06 |
| Conner Coffin | 35.14 | 10.77 | 12.71 | 10 | 12.36 | 12.09 | 13.51 | 14 | 11.57 | 32.97 |
| Stuart Kennedy | 26.98 | 10.47 | 13.89 | 10 | 12.56 | 10.62 | 12.29 | 12.85 | 11.17 | 31.84 |
| Caio Ibelli | 37.18 | 11.03 | 12.03 | 8 | 12.01 | 11.31 | 13.3 | 13.31 | 11.16 | 20.65 |
| Adrian Buchan | 44.19 | 12.47 | 10.37 | 16 | 12 | 13.28 | 12.73 | 13.17 | 11.03 | 20.4 |
| Josh Kerr | 46.32 | 11.72 | 11.7 | 15 | 12.92 | 12.05 | 12.31 | 12.59 | 10.99 | 20.33 |
| Connor O'Leary | 44.74 | 12.03 | 12.14 | 5 | 12.17 | 11.88 | 11.87 | 11.75 | 10.76 | 19.9 |
| Ian Gouveia | 36.67 | 11.68 | 11.42 | 3 | 11.64 | 12.44 | 12.24 | 11.91 | 10.69 | 19.78 |
| Keanu Asing | 30.3 | 10.46 | 11.46 | 4 | 12.1 | 11.33 | 11.72 | 12.5 | 10.52 | 19.47 |
| Yago Dora | 44.44 | 13.26 | 0 | 14.68 | 13.9 | 10.46 | 18.83 | |||
| Tomas Hermes | 12.5 | 11.49 | 0 | 11.77 | 11.26 | 11.26 | 11.26 | 9.94 | 17.9 | |
| Kanoa Igarashi | 41.89 | 10.42 | 9.75 | 7 | 12.59 | 10.78 | 11.01 | 11.8 | 9.89 | 17.8 |
| Jesse Mendes | 25 | 11.01 | 0 | 11.65 | 11.07 | 10.37 | 9.08 | 16.34 | ||
| Michael Rodrigues* | 15* | 12.18* | ||||||||
| Griffin Colapinto* | 19* | 12.2* |
QuikPro GC Results History
Empty fields denote absent/injured surfer* = older, 48-man contest format
| Surfer | 2010* | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Total | Average | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor O'Leary | 5 | 5 | 5.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Joel Parkinson | 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 5.75 | 8 | |
| Adriano de Souza | 5 | 9 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 61 | 7.63 | 8 | |
| Kelly Slater | 9 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 5 | 64 | 8.00 | 8 | |
| Stu Kennedy | 3 | 13 | 16 | 8.00 | 2 | |||||||
| Conner Coffin | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9.00 | 2 | |||||||
| Italo Ferreira | 9 | 13 | 5 | 27 | 9.00 | 3 | ||||||
| Mick Fanning | 9 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 74 | 9.25 | 8 | |
| Caio Ibelli | 9 | 13 | 22 | 11.00 | 2 | |||||||
| Miguel Pupo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 55 | 11.00 | 5 | ||||
| Jordy Smith | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 9 | 25 | 9 | 89 | 11.13 | 8 | |
| Gabriel Medina | 25 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 68 | 11.33 | 6 | |||
| Julian Wilson | 13 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 80 | 11.43 | 7 | ||
| Matt Wilkinson | 33 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 93 | 11.63 | 8 | |
| John John Florence | 13 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 72 | 12.00 | 6 | |||
| Owen Wright | 17 | 13 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 87 | 12.43 | 7 | ||
| Kolohe Andino | 13 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 75 | 12.50 | 6 | |||
| Josh Kerr | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 89 | 12.71 | 7 | ||
| Ezekiel Lau | 13 | 13 | 13.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Frederico Morais | 13 | 13 | 13.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Ian Gouveia | 13 | 13 | 13.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Mikey Wright | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13.00 | 2 | |||||||
| Ryan Callinan | 13 | 13 | 13.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Filipe Toledo | 13 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 67 | 13.40 | 5 | ||||
| Wiggolly Dantas | 5 | 13 | 25 | 43 | 14.33 | 3 | ||||||
| Ace Buchan | 9 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 116 | 14.50 | 8 | |
| Nat Young | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 73 | 14.60 | 5 | ||||
| Sebastian Zietz | 13 | 25 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 73 | 14.60 | 5 | ||||
| Jeremy Flores | 17 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 103 | 14.71 | 7 | ||
| Michel Bourez | 33 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 25 | 130 | 16.25 | 8 | |
| Bede Durbidge | 25 | 13 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 98 | 16.33 | 6 | |||
| Jadson Andre | 17 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 119 | 17.00 | 7 | ||
| Kanoa Igarashi | 9 | 25 | 34 | 17.00 | 2 | |||||||
| Patrick Gudauskas | 17 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 92 | 23.00 | 4 | |||||
| Ethan Ewing | 25 | 25 | 25.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Jack Freestone | 25 | 25 | 25 | 75 | 25.00 | 3 | ||||||
| Leonardo Fioravanti | 25 | 25 | 25.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Wade Carmichael | 25 | 25 | 25.00 | 1 | ||||||||
| Keanu Asing | 25 | 25 | 50 | 25.00 | 2 |