❮ Back

Contest Metrics - QuikPro France 2017

Contest Metrics - QuikPro France 2017

Last updated September 29, 2017 by Balyn McDonald

Sorry for the lack of a Trestles wrap-up; we’ve got some bigger things going on behind the scenes and something had to give. Watch this space though; we’ve got something pretty big on the way…

All of our France projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

*Keanu Asing’s stats have been added.

Contest Metrics

Key:

Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our magic algorithm,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
Form = AHS from previous 3 WSL events,
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Beach = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on our algorithms

NAME	Proj AHS	AET	EAHS	2017 AHS	ALL AHS	Form	1-4'	4-6'	6-8'	Beach	Left/Right	Proj Score
John John Florence	14.69	107.13	15.14	15.83	14.59	16.59	14.15	14.03	15.69	13.72	14.38	135.11
Gabriel Medina	14.31	111.23	14.44	13.96	13.94	15.31	14.16	14.36	14.77	14	14	131.66
Mick Fanning	14.3	86.52	15.24	13.43	14.01	13.77	15.09	13.18	14.58	14.03	14.06	110.1
Joan Duru	14.29	29.67	14.84	13.02	13.93	13.53	14.06	13.6	14.9	14.44	14.57	110.01
Frederico Morais	13.85			12.93	12.98	15.42	13.33	12.88	16.89	13.18	13.41	87.27
Adriano De Souza	13.69	75.75	14.4	13.88	13.1	13.24	13.56	13.43	12.98	13.98	13.78	86.27
Filipe Toledo	13.48	54.01	12.35	13.84	12.92	15.61	14.9	13.3	11.56	13.33	14.32	84.92
Owen Wright	13.46	63.03	14.01	14.13	13.28	13.51	13.59	12.74	12.98	13.58	13.41	84.82
Jordy Smith	13.33	61.87	12.44	13.95	12.85	13.8	13.89	13.1	14.24	13.11	13.81	66.64
Italo Ferreira	13.33	59.92	12.67	13.53	13.2	14.18	13.87	13.26	13.46	13.32	13.33	66.63
Julian Wilson	13.28	74.11	13.06	14.62	12.97	14.59	13.84	12.94	14.68	12.53	12.96	66.42
Ezekiel Lau	13.25			12.19	12.19	12.75	13.96	11.97	13.85	12.93	14.32	66.24
Bede Durbidge	12.83	73.17	14.33	12.81	11.35	12.59	14.52	11.56	11.51	13.29	12.19	48.76
Adrian Buchan	12.82	45.41	14.31	13.72	12.24	13.71	11.51	13.16	13.14	12.09	12.22	48.71
Conner Coffin	12.78	39.87	13.29	13.38	12.59	14.27	12.32	11.82	13.71	11.88	12.77	48.57
Kolohe Andino	12.58	84.02	13.23	12.36	12.18	12.17	12.28	13.09	12.11	12.71	12.35	47.81
Jeremy Flores	12.5	36.96	10.46	14.34	12.79	14.72	14.01	12.75	12.9	12.03	12.66	47.49
Ian Gouveia	12.49			12.31	12.31	12.31	11.64	13.07	12.34	13.37	11.98	47.45
Connor O'Leary	12.31			12.11	12.11	12.37	12.02	12.04	13.75	12.37	11.87	34.15
Joel Parkinson	12.12	25.21	9.82	12.55	12.85	11.38	13.78	13.54	13.05	12.25	12.28	33.63
Nat Young	12.03	30.82	10.87	12.14	12.23	11.16	12.33	11.86	13.04	12.68	12.32	33.39
Jack Freestone	11.94	31.99	10.66	11.77	12.24	12.58	12.79	11.97	11.35	11.94	12.6	33.13
Leonardo Fioravanti	11.91	34.3	11.43	11.97	11.82	13.72	12.8	11.49	14.1	10.49	11.61	33.05
Matt Wilkinson	11.88	51.83	11.57	12.53	11.42	12.83	12.49	11.98	11.56	11.84	11.81	32.97
Jadson Andre	11.77	56.15	11.23	11.41	11.55	13.18	12.33	12.03	10.75	11.6	11.97	21.18
Sebastian Zietz	11.76	35.81	10.74	13.04	12.17	13	12.13	11.86	12.75	11.28	11.71	21.17
Josh Kerr	11.71	43.55	10.36	10.62	11.55	11.26	13.52	11.69	11.19	12.21	12.23	21.08
Wiggolly Dantas	11.71	19.13	9.57	12.23	11.41	12.02	13.13	11.15	12.65	12.63	12.01	21.07
Stuart Kennedy	11.49	53.95	10.79	10.97	10.92	10.94	12.48	10.52	11.72	12.49	11.62	20.68
Caio Ibelli	11.45	41.67	11.17	11.58	11.51	10.37	12.38	11.37	13.03	11.08	11.39	20.61
Miguel Pupo	11.33	48.56	11.6	10.76	10.98	9.64	12.35	10.8	10.42	11.97	11.63	19.26
Michel Bourez	11.29	28.8	9.96	13.46	11.88	13.64	12	12.24	11.92	10.35	10.96	19.2
Kanoa Igarashi	10.9	24.83	8.28	10.49	11.84	10.82	12.37	10.77	8.1	12.35	12.34	18.52
Keanu Asing	11.31	68.38	12.05		10.88		12.12	11.33	10.46	11.19	10.9	19.22
Ethan Ewing	9.31			10.24	10.24	9.65	10.68	10.05	8.84	7.96	9.23	15.83

Fantasy Surfer Data

Key:

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
$ Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score

NAME	Value	Prev. Value	$ Change	AVG Pts	High Pts	Proj AHS	Proj Score	$1000/point
John John Florence	11500000	11000000	500000	140	250	14.69	250	46.00
Gabriel Medina	10000000	10750000	-750000	108	175	14.31	175	57.14
Mick Fanning	5000000	5250000	-250000	93	127	14.30	151	33.11
Joan Duru	5000000	5000000	0	80	126	14.29	150	33.33
Frederico Morais	5500000	4750000	750000	95	175	13.85	128	42.97
Adriano De Souza	8250000	7750000	500000	122	250	13.69	127	64.96
Filipe Toledo	8250000	7250000	1000000	133	250	13.48	126	65.48
Owen Wright	8750000	9500000	-750000	121	250	13.46	125	70.00
Jordy Smith	12500000	11750000	750000	142	250	13.33	103	121.36
Italo Ferreira	5000000	5000000	0	95	126	13.33	102	49.02
Julian Wilson	10000000	10250000	-250000	125	250	13.28	101	99.01
Ezekiel Lau	3250000	3000000	250000	71	150	13.25	100	32.50
Bede Durbidge	5250000	5000000	250000	85	126	12.83	86	61.05
Adrian Buchan	5750000	4750000	1000000	91	175	12.82	85	67.65
Conner Coffin	5000000	5000000	0	77	103	12.78	84	59.52
Kolohe Andino	7750000	8500000	-750000	89	175	12.58	83	93.37
Jeremy Flores	5500000	5000000	500000	90	126	12.50	82	67.07
Ian Gouveia	3000000	3250000	-250000	69	101	12.49	81	37.04
Connor O'Leary	5000000	5750000	-750000	95	175	12.31	80	62.50
Joel Parkinson	7250000	8000000	-750000	98	150	12.12	79	91.77
Nat Young	1500000	1500000	0	64	85	12.03	78	19.23
Jack Freestone	3000000	3000000	0	62	150	11.94	77	38.96
Leonardo Fioravanti	3000000	3250000	-250000	58	127	11.91	76	39.47
Matt Wilkinson	9750000	10750000	-1000000	121	250	11.88	75	130.00
Jadson Andre	3500000	3000000	500000	64	102	11.77	47	74.47
Sebastian Zietz	6000000	5750000	250000	86	103	11.76	46	130.43
Wiggolly Dantas	4750000	4500000	250000	77	125	11.71	45	105.56
Josh Kerr	3250000	3000000	250000	50	82	11.71	44	73.86
Stuart Kennedy	3000000	3000000	0	54	102	11.49	43	69.77
Jesse Mendes	1500000	1500000	0	59	77	11.47	42	35.71
Caio Ibelli	3500000	4250000	-750000	82	175	11.45	41	85.37
Miguel Pupo	3250000	3000000	250000	59	79	11.33	40	81.25
Michel Bourez	7250000	8000000	-750000	84	151	11.29	39	185.90
Kanoa Igarashi	4000000	3250000	750000	68	125	10.90	38	105.26
Ethan Ewing	3500000	3250000	250000	49	80	9.31	37	94.59

Surfers' Event History

We have changed our format for this table, now showing the final PLACE that each surfer received for each event. When looking at averages, LOWER is better (closer to 1st place).

Key

* = older ASP events with 48 surfers and lowest place of 33rd

Surfer	2004*	2005*	2006*	2007*	2008*	2009*	2010*	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	Average
Gabriel Medina								1	5	2	5	1	2	2.67
John John Florence								25	3	5	1	5	3	7.00
Kolohe Andino									5	13	5	9	3	7.00
Kelly Slater	3	5	3	17	2	5	2	5	1	5	5	13	25	7.00
Keanu Asing												13	1	7.00
Julian Wilson						17	13	2	13	5	13	3	5	8.88
Italo Ferreira												5	13	9.00
Owen Wright							9	9	9		13	5		9.00
Stu Kennedy													9	9.00
Mick Fanning		33	2	1	33	1	1	13	13	1	9	5		10.18
Michel Bourez				9	5	9	5	5	9	9	13	13	25	10.20
Filipe Toledo										3	9	25	5	10.50
Jordy Smith					17	9	5	3	13	9	3		25	10.50
Jadson Andre							9	13	13		2	9	25	11.83
Miguel Pupo								13	5	13	5	25	13	12.33
Ace Buchan			17	17	1	33	3	9	9	13	13	13	13	12.82
Conner Coffin													13	13.00
Jack Freestone													13	13.00
Kanoa Igarashi													13	13.00
Leonardo Fioravanti													13	13.00
Sebastian Zietz										13	13	25	9	15.00
Joel Parkinson	9		1	3	33		33	25	2	3	13	25	25	15.64
Jeremy Flores		17	17	17	17	33	13	9	13	13	13	9	25	16.33
Caio Ibelli												25	9	17.00
Adriano de Souza			17	33	3	33	17	25	25	13	13	3	9	17.36
Matt Wilkinson							17	25	25	25	9	9	13	17.57
Bede Durbidge		33	33	33	17	2	17	13	9	25	25	2		19.00
Josh Kerr				17				25	25	25	3	13	25	19.00
Nat Young										25	25	13	13	19.00
Joan Duru			33		17								25	25.00
Wiggolly Dantas												25	25	25.00

See all articles