Contest Metrics - Pipe 2017
Last updated December 6, 2017 by Balyn McDonald
Why, hello there fellow stats fans,
It’s been a while, no?
We kinda dropped off the face of the Earth there for a while, disappearing like Filipe’s Sunset campaign. We’ve been busy though, just not on this site (unfortunately).
The big news for fantasy surfing and stats fans is that Surf-Stats is branching out. We have taken the leap and are well underway on our journey to create the best god-damned fantasy surfing site possible. That’s right, we’re making our own game:
The site is still being built, but the landing page tells you what we’re about and, if you drop your details, we’ll hit you up in early 2018 to run through the finished site and get set for the new season.
If you’re wondering aloud why we bothered re-inventing the fantasy wheel when FS and the WSL have such a strong duopoly, then allow me to counter with the following criticisms of the existing games:
- The games are too rigid, with no customised options for groups/clubhouses to set the gameplay how they like (think live drafts, modified scoring, single-event contests, Aussie/Euro leg mini tours, etc., PLUS we want to make it so that you can use the site to run your own contests live at your local break using friends instead of pros and live scores from the beach for heat totals)
- There are nowhere near enough stats integrated into the gameplay
- There are barely any prizes to speak of; actually, there are none at all from the WSL itself
On top of that, we saw an opportunity to link with local surfing bodies, such as Surfrider and Surfing NSW to name a few. We want to pay-it-forward, so to speak, so that our site’s success gives back at a grass-roots level to the sport we love. We’re super-excited to be running with this, and we hope you can join us for the ride.
But, I’m getting ahead of myself. We still have a contest (and a title) to focus on. Fantasy teams are poised for clubhouse victory (or, at least, redemption) and shit’s getting real.
For now, I’m just dropping some overall Pipe stats to get everyone started, however I will probably be a lot lighter on FS data this event (because of time constraints more so than any perceived conflict of interest).
(For now…) our heat score projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.
Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.
You may notice a some changes in our stats, such as winning % for the season as well as the ‘form’ AHS and heats surfed in the past 3 events. We have also split our projections into ‘Pipe’ (favours lefts), Backdoor (duh), and Proj AHS, which balances both.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, don’t rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.
Pipe Metrics
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
2017 HWP = heat winning percentage for the 2017 season,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
Form AHS = AHS from previous 3 WSL events,
Form Heats = total number of heats surfed at the previous 3 WSL events combined,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+' size,
Reef = average heat score in conditions offering reef break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm of all conditions,
Backdoor = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm favouring Backdoor,
Pipe = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm favouring Pipe's lefts,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on our overall algorithm,
| NAME | AET | EAHS | 2017 AHS | 2017 HWP | ALL AHS | Form AHS | Form Hts | 4-6' | 6-8' | 8-10+' | Reefs | Left/Right | Rights | Lefts | Backdoor | Pipe | Proj AHS | Proj Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John John Florence | 81.12 | 13.31 | 15.63 | 75 | 14.54 | 15.5 | 15 | 14.17 | 15.37 | 15.7 | 15.38 | 14.38 | 15.17 | 14.92 | 14.82 | 14.77 | 14.76 | 135.81 |
| Gabriel Medina | 87.89 | 12.93 | 14.01 | 69.8 | 13.96 | 14.15 | 15 | 14.43 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 14.01 | 13.95 | 14.17 | 14.72 | 13.84 | 13.94 | 13.9 | 127.85 |
| Kelly Slater | 70.19 | 13.15 | 12.64 | 42.9 | 13.56 | 0 | 13.32 | 15.03 | 13.97 | 13.62 | 13.14 | 13.55 | 14.15 | 13.65 | 13.77 | 13.66 | 105.18 | |
| Mick Fanning | 73.14 | 10.69 | 13.3 | 51.4 | 13.98 | 12.57 | 13 | 13.1 | 14.27 | 14.65 | 13.16 | 14.04 | 15.34 | 12.94 | 13.36 | 12.92 | 13.22 | 101.76 |
| Julian Wilson | 52.08 | 10.78 | 13.85 | 60.5 | 12.78 | 12.28 | 12 | 12.94 | 14.3 | 11.39 | 13.33 | 12.53 | 14.1 | 12.63 | 12.74 | 12.78 | 12.6 | 79.37 |
| Owen Wright | 56.47 | 9.87 | 13.44 | 52.4 | 13.05 | 11.77 | 9 | 12.74 | 12.46 | 13.8 | 13.46 | 12.72 | 13.55 | 14.1 | 12.51 | 12.47 | 12.57 | 79.2 |
| Leonardo Fioravanti | 11.75 | 24.1 | 11.71 | 10.78 | 10 | 11.43 | 13.57 | 13.72 | 13.22 | 11.46 | 12.48 | 13.68 | 12.51 | 12.37 | 12.52 | 78.9 | ||
| Joan Duru | 12.43 | 36.4 | 13.64 | 12.23 | 9 | 13.6 | 13.85 | 7.99 | 11.88 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 12.61 | 12.36 | 11.91 | 12.45 | 78.41 | ||
| Jeremy Flores | 56.54 | 11.05 | 13.46 | 41.4 | 12.57 | 12.7 | 9 | 12.75 | 12.46 | 11.56 | 13.06 | 12.24 | 13.03 | 12.72 | 12.39 | 11.97 | 12.35 | 61.77 |
| Adriano De Souza | 58.01 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 61.1 | 13.03 | 13.45 | 10 | 13.43 | 12.87 | 11.75 | 12.1 | 13.47 | 13.97 | 11.27 | 12.41 | 12.25 | 12.27 | 61.35 |
| Jordy Smith | 40.75 | 10.71 | 13.49 | 61.7 | 12.74 | 13.67 | 11 | 13.1 | 13.96 | 10.48 | 11.82 | 13.63 | 14.33 | 9.56 | 12.52 | 12.61 | 12.21 | 61.06 |
| Frederico Morais | 21.44 | 10.72 | 12.51 | 47.2 | 12.84 | 12.41 | 12 | 12.82 | 14.47 | 12.97 | 10.2 | 12.63 | 14.93 | 11.53 | 12.47 | 12.34 | 12.2 | 61.01 |
| Jack Freestone | 23 | 13.39 | 13.03 | 25 | 12.66 | 16.55 | 6 | 11.97 | 10.61 | 11.16 | 10.33 | 14.07 | 12.83 | 8.86 | 12.37 | 11.97 | 12.18 | 46.28 |
| Connor O'Leary | 11.95 | 44.4 | 11.95 | 11.32 | 9 | 12.04 | 13.07 | 11.42 | 12.76 | 11.58 | 11.87 | 13.02 | 12.12 | 11.85 | 12.18 | 46.28 | ||
| Italo Ferreira | 35.39 | 9.92 | 12.42 | 40.9 | 12.83 | 10.78 | 8 | 13.26 | 13.08 | 11.67 | 12.71 | 12.61 | 13.94 | 12.41 | 12.25 | 11.9 | 12.15 | 46.18 |
| Joel Parkinson | 45.25 | 9.9 | 12.09 | 50 | 12.74 | 9.79 | 9 | 13.28 | 12.93 | 11.85 | 12.44 | 12.09 | 14.31 | 12.02 | 12.17 | 11.88 | 11.97 | 45.5 |
| Kolohe Andino | 44.6 | 9.87 | 12.51 | 52.5 | 12.22 | 12.77 | 16 | 13.17 | 12.11 | 11.21 | 12.15 | 12.68 | 12.46 | 12.7 | 11.86 | 11.57 | 11.95 | 45.39 |
| Adrian Buchan | 38.28 | 8.85 | 13.45 | 44.1 | 12.17 | 13.15 | 12 | 13.16 | 12.94 | 11.71 | 12.27 | 12.05 | 12.44 | 12.65 | 11.84 | 11.45 | 11.88 | 45.14 |
| Ian Gouveia | 11.89 | 29.2 | 11.89 | 10.34 | 6 | 13.07 | 12.22 | 10.47 | 12.39 | 11.09 | 12.24 | 12.48 | 11.92 | 11.65 | 11.86 | 32.91 | ||
| Filipe Toledo | 51 | 10.61 | 12.77 | 55.9 | 12.66 | 13.26 | 10 | 13.3 | 10.96 | 11.04 | 10.87 | 13.81 | 14.45 | 9.68 | 12.1 | 11.75 | 11.84 | 32.86 |
| Conner Coffin | 40.57 | 11.5 | 12.33 | 31.3 | 12.24 | 10.19 | 7 | 11.82 | 12.11 | 14.21 | 11.01 | 11.3 | 13.53 | 10.86 | 12.06 | 11.65 | 11.77 | 32.67 |
| Sebastian Zietz | 36.65 | 9.3 | 12.74 | 46.3 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 16 | 11.9 | 12.45 | 11.69 | 12.11 | 11.64 | 13.13 | 11.13 | 11.78 | 11.23 | 11.6 | 32.2 |
| Michel Bourez | 59.35 | 10.5 | 12.76 | 43.3 | 11.71 | 10.9 | 7 | 12.24 | 11.44 | 12.1 | 12.02 | 10.73 | 13.27 | 11.24 | 11.82 | 11.42 | 11.56 | 32.07 |
| Josh Kerr | 70.52 | 10.03 | 10.87 | 17.4 | 11.61 | 12.54 | 9 | 11.68 | 11.36 | 10.08 | 10.92 | 12.04 | 11.96 | 10.75 | 11.19 | 10.53 | 11.16 | 30.97 |
| Ezekiel Lau | 11.47 | 25.9 | 11.47 | 11.44 | 7 | 11.97 | 12.45 | 10.59 | 9.37 | 11.77 | 13.57 | 9.06 | 11.53 | 10.97 | 11.11 | 19.99 | ||
| Caio Ibelli | 15.93 | 7.97 | 11.28 | 40 | 11.41 | 10.81 | 10 | 11.37 | 12.24 | 14.16 | 10.08 | 11.48 | 13.27 | 8.04 | 11.15 | 10.52 | 10.74 | 19.33 |
| Kanoa Igarashi | 99.04 | 11.56 | 10.54 | 34.4 | 11.86 | 11.41 | 14 | 10.77 | 10.56 | 10.34 | 9.32 | 11.83 | 11.01 | 8.71 | 10.79 | 10.37 | 10.69 | 19.24 |
| Jadson Andre | 17.73 | 7.6 | 10.93 | 20 | 11.43 | 11.84 | 9 | 12.03 | 10.68 | 10.78 | 10.58 | 11.62 | 11.92 | 11.3 | 10.63 | 10.2 | 10.66 | 19.19 |
| Matt Wilkinson | 19.21 | 6.08 | 12.21 | 60.5 | 11.34 | 11.14 | 6 | 11.98 | 11.24 | 10.98 | 10.14 | 11.71 | 12.92 | 10.41 | 10.45 | 9.83 | 10.35 | 18.62 |
| Ethan Ewing | 10.73 | 18.2 | 10.73 | 11.59 | 7 | 10.05 | 11.63 | 9.84 | 8.53 | 10.78 | 11.81 | 8.36 | 10.5 | 9.99 | 10.18 | 18.33 | ||
| Bede Durbidge | 25.36 | 6.16 | 12.16 | 36.7 | 11.19 | 12.11 | 9 | 11.56 | 11.17 | 8.85 | 9.89 | 11.72 | 13.63 | 9.7 | 10.38 | 9.73 | 10.17 | 17.29 |
| Stuart Kennedy | 11.73 | 10.58 | 10.31 | 16.7 | 10.59 | 8.5 | 6 | 10.52 | 10.81 | 9.04 | 8.99 | 10.68 | 12.18 | 9.75 | 10.27 | 9.67 | 10.1 | 17.17 |
| Miguel Pupo | 20.25 | 6.52 | 10.95 | 33.3 | 11.02 | 11.81 | 13 | 11.11 | 10.51 | 8.79 | 9.05 | 11.51 | 12.02 | 8.93 | 9.86 | 9.29 | 9.74 | 16.55 |
| Wiggolly Dantas | 12.15 | 4.86 | 11.19 | 28.1 | 11.15 | 8.68 | 7 | 11.15 | 11.69 | 7.69 | 10.35 | 11.31 | 13.86 | 10.41 | 9.86 | 9.41 | 9.7 | 16.49 |
Our results data below includes the past 10 years, but neglects quite a few years of data from Slater as well as other tour veterans such as Mick and Joel. I will endeavour to update this as soon as possible.
Pipe Results History
* = older, 48-man contest format| Surfer | 2007* | 2008* | 2009* | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Total | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanoa Igarashi | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | |||||||||
| Kelly Slater | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 45 | 4.50 |
| Jeremy Flores | 9 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 46 | 7.67 | ||||
| Joel Parkinson | 4 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 80 | 8.00 |
| Mick Fanning | 17 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 67 | 9.57 | |||
| Gabriel Medina | 5 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 44 | 7.33 | ||||
| John John Florence | 9 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 61 | 7.63 | ||
| Owen Wright | 5 | 13 | 9 | 27 | 9.00 | |||||||
| Sebastian Zietz | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 9.00 | |||||
| Josh Kerr | 17 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 91 | 11.38 | ||
| Julian Wilson | 13 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 58 | 9.67 | ||||
| Bede Durbidge | 1 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 101 | 11.22 | |
| Adriano de Souza | 9 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 92 | 11.50 | ||
| Ace Buchan | 5 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 121 | 13.44 | |
| Conner Coffin | 13 | 13 | 13.00 | |||||||||
| Italo Ferreira | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13.00 | ||||||||
| Jordy Smith | 17 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 91 | 13.00 | |||
| Filipe Toledo | 25 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 52 | 13.00 | ||||||
| Michel Bourez | 33 | 13 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 110 | 13.75 | ||
| Nat Young | 9 | 13 | 25 | 9 | 56 | 14.00 | ||||||
| Miguel Pupo | 25 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 90 | 15.00 | ||||
| Jamie O'Brien | 5 | 33 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 81 | 16.20 | |||||
| Kolohe Andino | 25 | 25 | 13 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 18.20 | |||||
| Wiggolly Dantas | 25 | 13 | 38 | 19.00 | ||||||||
| Mason Ho | 33 | 25 | 3 | 61 | 20.33 | |||||||
| Bruce Irons | 17 | 17 | 37 | 25 | 25 | 121 | 24.20 | |||||
| Matt Wilkinson | 13 | 37 | 25 | 25 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 151 | 21.57 | |||
| Jadson Andre | 13 | 25 | 37 | 13 | 25 | 25 | 138 | 23.00 | ||||
| Frederico Morais | 25 | 25 | 25.00 | |||||||||
| Stuart Kennedy | 25 | 25 | 25.00 | |||||||||
| Caio Ibelli | 25 | 25 | 25.00 |
That’s all for now, but I’ll leave you with what may well be the greatest Pipe final of all time, here.