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Billabong Pipe Masters Projections

Billabong Pipe Masters Projections

Last updated November 21, 2016 by Surf-Stats

This data uses the 2014/2015/2016 results and gives a slight weighting to 2016 form within the projections. Many of the less experienced surfers (less reliable data) have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by this season’s results and having no previous experience at this event. Italo, Wiggolly and Asing have only one year’s worth of data at this event.

Don’t just rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the columns yourselves and pick out the elements that you believe to be of most importance.

Our full Pipe event article will be up soon. Until then, have fun playing with your teams. This is your last chance to sign up to our WSL Surf-Stats group (password – SS) or the Fantasy Surfer Surf-Stats clubhouse (password – SS) before the seasons’ end.

Pipe Projections

AHS = average heat score (using 2014-16 seasons)
EATP = event average total points (WSL game),
EAHS = event average heat score,
Prev AHS = average heat score from previous contest,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10+' = heat average in waves of 8-10+' size,
Reef = average heat score in conditions offering beach break waves,
Left = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Right = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Left/Right = average heat score in conditions offering both left- and right-hander waves,
PROJ SCORE = total projected score for the event (WSL game)

NAME	AET	EAHS	2016 AHS	AHS	4-6'	6-8'	8-10+'	Reef	Lefts	Rights	Left/Right	Proj Score
Kelly Slater	62.21	14.2	13.82	13.93	13.79	14.86	15.91	15.32	16.05	13.73	13.14	133.98
John John Florence	76.62	12.85	14.71	14.18	13.87	14.93	14.89	15.05	14.91	14.5	14.13	131.84
Gabriel Medina	111.02	12.88	14.28	13.97	14.45	14.27	13.97	14.37	14.95	13.97	13.84	106.29
Italo Ferreira	86.44	13.66	13.27	13.16	13.5	13.53	11.79	13.32	12.99	13.8	13.52	102.55
Joel Parkinson	44.89	10.37	13.48	13.11	13.93	13.02	12.28	13.29	12.8	14.39	12.37	80.25
Julian Wilson	61.24	10.91	12.59	12.52	12.93	14.49	9.58	13.43	12.36	13.95	12.52	78.48
Jeremy Flores	46.83	9.71	12.84	12.3	12.31	12.07	10.92	13.15	12.72	12.4	12.08	75.68
Adriano De Souza	87.47	10.06	12	12.92	13.01	12.85	10.98	12.06	11.62	13.79	13.05	75.02
Ryan Callinan			11.96	12.59	11.23	13.52		11.26	10.86	11.3	12.77	59.04
Caio Ibelli			11.79	11.64	11.62	11.52		11.98	9.67	12.2	12.13	58.69
Sebastian Zietz	42.02	9.6	13.1	12.02	11.76	12.38	11.35	12.4	11.66	12.78	11.53	58.68
Filipe Toledo	47.31	10.28	13.1	12.7	13.7	9.63	9.73	10.47	10.12	14.16	14.04	58.17
Josh Kerr	70.06	9.78	12.33	11.9	12.02	11.61	10.2	11.8	11.83	12.08	11.8	43.92
Jack Freestone			11.76	12.5	11.97			9.48	9.48	12.82	12.95	43.84
Adrian Buchan	47.72	8.64	12.77	11.84	13.15	12.76	11.14	12.39	12.58	12.09	11.61	43.73
Jordy Smith	17.02	6.21	13.7	12.45	13.03	13.37	9.66	11.5	8.53	14.03	13.57	43.53
Nat Young	17.16	6.93	12.37	12.33	11.95	12.99	10.83	12.58	11.51	13.1	12.04	43.51
Davey Cathels			11.56	12.24	11.24	11.75		10.78	10.3	11.83	11.55	43.3
Kolohe Andino	20.29	5.9	13.46	12.15	13.39	11.72	9.54	12.01	12.98	12.35	12.67	31.43
Conner Coffin			11.75	12.12	12.09	12.28		9.54	8.58	13.64	11.87	31.34
Stuart Kennedy			11.36	11.36	11.24	11.89		10.39	9.97	12.93	11.55	30.99
Jadson Andre	18.46	7.19	12.34	11.73	12.53	10.7	10.38	10.86	11.19	12.32	11.74	30.54
Kai Otton	40.23	7.36	12	11.83	12.26	11.48	11.07	11.39	11.31	12.73	11.43	30.35
Kanoa Igarashi			11.19	12.51	10.16	11.41		10.14	8.06	11.57	11.8	29.99
Michel Bourez	35.24	7.9	12.01	11.32	11.45	11.14	10.28	10.79	9.46	13.02	10.77	19.16
Adam Melling	44.28	10.64	11.2	10.96	11.46	12.19	8.33	11.27	10.43	11.71	10.8	19.02
Matt Banting			10.83	11.28	11.38	10.82	7.17	9.85	9.86	11.61	11.31	18.91
Alejo Muniz	29.48	8.39	10.84	10.65	11.03	9.49	11.12	9.37	10.02	11.82	10.64	18.5
Keanu Asing	37.21	7.44	11.36	10.89	11.45	10.46	5.86	9.57	9.95	11.41	11.02	18.32
Wiggolly Dantas	5.63	2.82	13.1	11.34	10.93	11.43	7.89	10.72	10.43	14.19	11.67	17.13
Miguel Pupo	12.76	5.08	11.51	11.09	11.61	9.9	7.9	9.56	9.08	12.36	11.36	16.62
Bede Durbidge	26.27	4.89		12.37	13.33		7.17	10.46	10.06	13.91		16.53
Matt Wilkinson	10.88	4.33	11.67	11.09	11.9	10.24	10.59	9.42	9.47	12.66	11.7	16.43
Alex Ribeiro			9.27	7.96	5.84	9.34		8.04	7.6	10.56	8.34	13.93

Pipe FS Data

*n.b.: surfers values given at current market value

Name	$ Value	Proj AHS	Proj Score	$1000/point
Kelly Slater	6500000	14.56	250	26.00
John John Florence	11250000	14.33	175	64.29
Gabriel Medina	11500000	13.8	151	76.16
Italo Ferreira	7000000	13.32	150	46.67
Joel Parkinson	6250000	12.74	128	48.83
Julian Wilson	9000000	12.46	127	70.87
Jeremy Flores	4500000	12.01	126	35.71
Adriano De Souza	9750000	11.91	125	78.00
Ryan Callinan	3000000	11.81	103	29.13
Caio Ibelli	5000000	11.74	102	49.02
Sebastian Zietz	1500000	11.74	101	14.85
Filipe Toledo	9000000	11.63	100	90.00
Josh Kerr	5750000	11.56	86	66.86
Jack Freestone	3000000	11.54	85	35.29
Adrian Buchan	5000000	11.51	84	59.52
Jordy Smith	8500000	11.45	83	102.41
Nat Young	4500000	11.45	82	54.88
Davey Cathels	3000000	11.39	81	37.04
Kolohe Andino	7000000	11.33	80	87.50
Conner Coffin	4500000	11.29	79	56.96
Stuart Kennedy	1500000	11.17	78	19.23
Jadson Andre	3750000	11.01	77	48.70
Kai Otton	4500000	10.94	76	59.21
Kanoa Igarashi	5000000	10.81	75	66.67
Michel Bourez	5250000	10.65	47	111.70
Adam Melling	1500000	10.57	46	32.61
Matt Banting	4000000	10.51	45	88.89
Alejo Muniz	3750000	10.28	44	85.23
Keanu Asing	3500000	10.18	43	81.40
Wiggolly Dantas	4750000	10.08	42	113.10
Miguel Pupo	5250000	9.78	41	128.05
Bede Durbidge	3000000	9.73	40	75.00
Matt Wilkinson	5500000	9.66	39	141.03
Alex Ribeiro	3000000	8.2	38	78.95

Pipe Surfers' Event History

Round / Placing / Value:
Final (win) / 1st / 10
Final (lose) / 2nd / 8
Semis / 3rd / 6.5
Quarters / 5th / 5.2
R5 / 9th / 4
R3 / 13th / 1.75
R2 / 25th or lower / 0.5

Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour

Surfer	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total	Average
Joel Parkinson	8	10	6.5	1.75	4	30.25	6.05
Kelly Slater	6.5	6.5	10	1.75	5.2	29.95	5.99
Gabriel Medina	5.2	4	1.75	8	8	26.95	5.39
John John Florence	5.2	1.75	8	5.2	4	24.15	4.83
Josh Kerr	1.75	8	1.75	6.5	5.2	23.2	4.64
Julian Wilson	1.75	1.75	5.2	10	1.75	20.45	4.09
Sebastian Zietz		5.2	5.2	4	1.75	16.15	4.04
Keanu Asing					4	4	4.00
Adriano de Souza	1.75	1.75	1.75		10	15.25	3.81
Michel Bourez	6.5	0.5	1.75	4	1.75	14.5	2.90
Jeremy Flores		1.75	4	1.75	4	11.5	2.88
Filipe Toledo			0.5	5.2	1.75	7.45	2.48
Miguel Pupo	0.5	4	5.2	1.75	0.5	11.95	2.39
Kai Otton	0.5	0.5	4	5.2	1.75	11.95	2.39
Ace Buchan	0.5	0.5		6.5	1.75	9.25	2.31
Adam Melling	1.75	0.5	1.75	1.75	5.2	10.95	2.19
Nat Young			4	1.75	0.5	6.25	2.08
Alejo Muniz	1.75	0.5	0.5	5.2		7.95	1.99
Italo Ferreira					1.75	1.75	1.75
Jordy Smith	1.75	1.75		0.5	1.75	5.75	1.44
Bede Durbidge	0.5	0.5	1.75	1.75	1.75	6.25	1.25
Kolohe Andino		1.75	0.5	1.75	0.5	4.5	1.13
Jadson Andre	0.5	0.5		1.75	0.5	3.25	0.81
Matt Wilkinson	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.75	0.5	3.75	0.75
Wiggolly Dantas					0.5	0.5	0.50

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